mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Amos83 said: Roads all over the CLT area are treated right now. It's not like GSP is saying it isn't going to do anything. They have ALL day tomorrow to watch and see how things are unfolding downstream. Most models show GSP starting as rain, so that will wash the salt/ brine off the street. Then wet/snowy roads flash freeze. Horrific travel on Wednesday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 TWC expert going 1-3" for RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: Happened a lot before the year 2010. When it does, it hurts. A lot. Not along the Tennessee border counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 So before today I had never heard of the ICON. It has been the most cited model on this forum today. Am I missing something?I’ve been seeing it a lot more in the past year or so. I think one of the factors of it being cited so much for this system is that it was recently added onto tropicaltidbits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: So before today I had never heard of the ICON. It has been the most cited model on this forum today. Am I missing something? No. It’s showing the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: Happened a lot before the year 2010. When it does, it hurts. A lot. I remember back in the mid 2000's when I lived in Martinsville, VA there was system like this that had a heavy band that dissipated right at the crest of the Blue Ridge (About 15 miles west of me) and then reformed about 5 miles south of my location. We ended up with flurries while 10 miles south of me near the North Carolina line they got 6 inches. That one hurt because they had forcasted 4 inches. These kind of systems can tear your heart out but they can bust on the high end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Lot of case study events before the year 2010. jan 19 2008 comes to mind. altho not exactly the same scenario, im sure you could find one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Not surprisingly, the ICON/GGEM/RGEM also come with warmer solutions. My guess is they are overdone anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: No. It’s showing the most snow. It's hilarious how folks gravitate to the model that shows the most snow. Not saying that it's going to be wrong necessarily but how many times has that worked out for us in the SE!? From what I understand it's similar to the Euro but is lower resolution than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: Not surprisingly, the ICON/GGEM/RGEM also come with warmer solutions. My guess is they are overdone anyway. Wouldn't say their overdone just yet... lets see if the 0z suite agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 None of it north of 85 falls as anything but snow so im surprised it’s so low.The TT sim radar shows a lil bit of rain at start as it progresses east through Catawba and Iredell Counties.Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: It's hilarious how folks gravitate to the model that shows the most snow. Not saying that it's going to be wrong necessarily but how many times has that worked out for us in the SE!? From what I understand it's similar to the Euro but is lower resolution than the Euro. Not very many times. But it’s fun to look at and shows the potential of what can happen, I guess. I’d be excited if it showed half a foot over my house. But unfortunately, it spits out a few hundredths, so I’m inclined to toss it! It actually didn’t do all that well with the last storm. Hopefully, it continues to trend better and wetter over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said: Nice This is a horrible look even for triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: This is a horrible look even for triad. Lol. Cause it doesn't go out futher in time. Look at time stamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: Lol. Cause it doesn't go out futher in time. Look at time stamp Right. Valid at 1pm. I thought it would start in wake around 7am. That’s what RAH is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The ICON is a good model tool to use. Larry (GAwx) will be first to tell you it was the 1st one to catch a N by NE heading on our last coastal storm while all other models had it NE. Trust me it does better than the gfs and cmc. Has the highest resolution of any global, exception euro and they are neck n neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, calculus1 said: The TT sim radar shows a lil bit of rain at start as it progresses east through Catawba and Iredell Counties. Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Check out the extracted data, it’s all snow. I’m not saying it can’t happen, I just doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Right. Valid at 1pm. I thought it would start in wake around 7am. That’s what RAH is saying. RGEM is slower and is much higher with the QPF all across NC, has a nice coastal to boot, its the kinda run we all wanna happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 i see why nws did what they did. wpc slashed and diced the probabilities from greensboro west on the 2" amounts. they now favor raleigh north. i dont know if i agree with this based on latest guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: RGEM is slower and is much higher with the QPF all across NC, has a nice coastal to boot, its the kinda run we all wanna happen.... Eastern areas probably don't want a storm as amped as RGEM given how far west the upper low cuts off. Western Piedmont and mtns will definitely want this as precip will back build as gulf moisture is drawn in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It use to be comical but the gfs just keeps sliding futher and futher into the abyss in terms of relevance. To me the ukmet,euro,eps,icon,navgem,Can,nam have more of my trust for any event. The icon and espeacilly navgem and nam have really stepped up their game this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Wow at Texas in the last 30 minutes..radar lighting up like a Christmas tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Brad Panovich’s 40% call of nothing is going to not age well, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: It use to be comical but the gfs just keeps sliding futher and futher into the abyss in terms of relevance. To me the ukmet,euro,eps,icon,navgem,Can,nam have more of my trust for any event. The icon and espeacilly navgem and nam have really stepped up their game this season I agree, really impressed with the Nam this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Interested to see if we trend towards a lee side 850 in the upstate, that would enhance lift to the NW of its track, especially if sufficient forcing is present to deepen it for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Brad Panovich’s 40% call of nothing is going to not age well, IMO. meh, 60% chance of 1+". He knows this area well. I think we get snow, but i don't think we're gonna be in the 2+ range. .5-2 is the sweet spot and I'm feeling more along the 1" area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I stated it before and I’ll state it again. I really believe the models will have to play catch-up in the qpf department. This thing will trend right until game time. Some folks have had some very good input thus far this afternoon and evening. The models are struggling with downsloping effect, etc.. it’s almost like the summer time, whereas they have a squall line approach, hit the mountains, lose intensity and then reintensify as they move east of the mountains. I do believe if there is a heavy snow band heading east from TN it will not literally disinigrate. I’d say from at least Frosty, to WNC Snow and even some folks from Winston Salem/Greensboro north will have some great ratios to cash in moreso than some others on the board. If the ICON or RGEM come to fruition watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Not sure if this has been posted but; from RAH: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Monday... ...Snow Accumulations of 1 to 2 Inches Possible Across the Piedmont and Northern Coastal Plain Late Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Afternoon... Closed upper low over the Upper MS Valley will transition into an open but still highly amplified shortwave trough as it progresses east through the region on Wednesday. On the heels of a strong Arctic cold front crossing the area Tuesday night, the chance for snow will increase across central NC late Tuesday night (western Piedmont/Triad)and into the day on Wednesday(central and northern Coastal Plain), as an ana-frontal precip band, driven in response to the accompanying vigorous shortwave dynamics and deep layer frontogenesis, moves west to east through the area. Confidence is increasing slightly as NWP model guidance is starting to come into better agreement in both timing and liquid equivalents. Current timing suggest precip onset and transition to all snow between 06 to 09z in the Triad, around 12z(daybreak) in the Triangle, and then 12 to 15z in the east/southeast, with a 6 to 9 hour window of precip expected thereafter before significant/aggressive drying aloft overwhelms the area, ending precip. Deterministic model guidance is right in line with the the SREF ensemble mean of a 0.10 to 0.20" liquid qpf across the area, 20-30 percent of which will likely not go to frozen accumulation owing to rain or rain/snow mix expected at onset. However, given strong column cooling, once precip changes over to all snow, snow ratios are apt to be high, averaging 12-15:1. This would result in the potential for a swath of light snowfall accumulations across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, with amounts ranging from a half inch along a line extending from Albemarle to Southern Pine to Goldsboro, to as much 1.5 to 2.0" across the far northern- Virginia bordering counties. Potential other scenarios that could unfold are: If more progressive solutions similar to that of the GFS verify, which quickly dries out the <-10C ice nucleation layer, we could see more sleet or snow mixed with sleet, which would significantly reduce snow accumulations across the area. Barring no major forecast/model changes, a winter weather advisory will likely be needed for these areas for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Additionally, the Arctic high building in the Southern US in the wake of this system will support very cold temperatures and wind chill Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially across the NC Piedmont. Temperatures during the day on Wednesday will range from upper 20s/near 30 NW to mid/upper 30s SE, with NWLY wind gusts in the teens to lower 20s making it feel like more like teens to lower 30s. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s, with wind chill values approaching the single digits across much of central NC. With temperatures this cold, any snow on roads and bridges/overpasses will make road conditions treacherous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Brad Panovich’s 40% call of nothing is going to not age well, IMO. Every model cycle the trends just keep getting better and better. Hard to beleive cause our luck it's usually the oppossite. Interested to see the oz nam and RGEM. Like wow said RGEM is a dream for us. Nam is not to far off. Maybe we can knock one over the fence for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.