SnowNiner Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: From 12z: Euro/GFS/NAVGEM like our storm UKMET/CMC/JMA don't like it Hard to really go in without the UKMET. I think to me a positive though is that the GFS and EURO agree with their ensembles and seem to be trending in the right direction/better as we get closer in as opposed to worse. Hopefully the ukmet catches on soon. If it does and tomorrow at 12z we're still looking good, I may just buy into this, as odd as it seems to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, griteater said: From 12z: Euro/GFS/NAVGEM like our storm UKMET/CMC/JMA don't like it so on the model performance score card GFS/Euro 3/7 UKEMET/Canadian 3/6 Euro is 0 for 5 It's time for the Euro to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 DT seems to being intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 48 minutes ago, griteater said: With analogs, there are likely a ton that have ended as failed events. But in terms of waves that have dropped down sharply out of Saskatchewan or Manitoba in successful events, here's a list (a couple already mentioned): Jan 16, 1965: GSP 6.0, CLT 10.2, AVL 5.5, HKY 12.7, GSO 5.5, RDU 5.8 Feb 6, 1984: NC map was posted. GSP 0.6 Feb 23, 1989: GSP 2.5, CLT 3.5, GSO 4.5, RDU 4.9. Huge snow for NE NC (Greenville to Eliz City) Jan 23, 2003: NC map was posted. GSP 3.0 Jan 20, 2009: GSP T, RDU 3-7, GSO 0.5-2, CLT T, FAY 3-4, PGV 4 You sure that February 1989 date is correct? There was a storm the 17-18, but nothing on the 23rd that year. There were actually 2 storms in Feb 1989. One on 2/17 and another on 2/23 For the 2 storms: Norfolk: 14.8 / 9.0 Edenton, NC: 6.0 / 10.0 Greenville, NC: Data Missing / 11.0 Gatesville, NC had 18.0 in the 2/23 storm Data is missing for Elizabeth City for Feb 1989 in my searches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 57 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: The interesting stuff from GSP's AFD, with the key part highlighted: When does everything NOT have to be perfect to get southern snow! Bravo GSP ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Does DT mean "Friday" instead of "Thursday", or was that from yesterday? lol either way, thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: There were actually 2 storms in Feb 1989. One on 2/17 and another on 2/23 For the 2 storms: Norfolk: 14.8 / 9.0 Edenton, NC: 6.0 / 10.0 Greenville, NC: Data Missing / 11.0 Gatesville, NC had 18.0 in the 2/23 storm Data is missing for Elizabeth City for Feb 1989 in my searches This paper has a map of the Feb 23-25, 1989 snow totals on page "27" (in cm): http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0021%3AWWFTTE>2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 There were actually 2 storms in Feb 1989. One on 2/17 and another on 2/23 For the 2 storms: Norfolk: 14.8 / 9.0 Edenton, NC: 6.0 / 10.0 Greenville, NC: Data Missing / 11.0 Gatesville, NC had 18.0 in the 2/23 storm Data is missing for Elizabeth City for Feb 1989 in my searchesNCSU Climate database doesn't show anything for the 23rd in Elizabeth City and the 17th doesn't show any data there either. That's odd. Sorry to question your findings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: 6 minutes ago, griteater said: There were actually 2 storms in Feb 1989. One on 2/17 and another on 2/23 For the 2 storms: Norfolk: 14.8 / 9.0 Edenton, NC: 6.0 / 10.0 Greenville, NC: Data Missing / 11.0 Gatesville, NC had 18.0 in the 2/23 storm Data is missing for Elizabeth City for Feb 1989 in my searches NCSU Climate database doesn't show anything for the 23rd in Elizabeth City and the 17th doesn't show any data there either. That's odd. Sorry to question your findings. No worries here...it's hard to make me mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Does DT mean "Friday" instead of "Thursday", or was that from yesterday? lol either way, thanks for posting. Who knows. I swear, trying to read his thoughts and interpretations with the misspellings gives me irritating rectal itch, along with a sinus headache. It's almost like he gave a squirrel amphetamines and let it type away on his keyboard sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 No worries here...it's hard to make me madCool deal. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: No worries here...it's hard to make me mad Come on. Last 2mins of the game last night had to be at least irritating like stuck model output that won't load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: so on the model performance score card GFS/Euro 3/7 UKEMET/Canadian 3/6 Euro is 0 for 5 It's time for the Euro to score. If they hold their respective positions tonight, we can add another case study Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Why does the ECMWF struggle to give snow to Eastern NC and NE SC? Is it Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Come on. Last 2mins of the game last night had to be at least irritating like stuck model output that won't load. That is something that should not be discussed in my presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Why does the ECMWF struggle to give snow to Eastern NC and NE SC? Is it Temps? On the 12z, there is some early rain in your area...then as the cold air sweeps in, there is only light precip...some light snow though even if model snow map isn't showing it IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS out to 93 looks fairly similar to 12z...it's a little more SW with the wave overall...should be a pretty good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS out to 93 looks fairly similar to 12z...it's a little more SW with the wave overall...should be a pretty good run A little drier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: A little drier.... It's a little later getting the precip going, but h5 was quite similar. Good run for Raleigh to Fayetteville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: A little drier.... Precip blossom over NC, that SW dig on this thing is Amazeballs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yeah not as good a run for western areas, but can't complain at this point. See you for 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'd like the see the mountains to the coast and from the Virginia line to the SC/GA lines get in this. Basically all of NC. Plus VA, SC, and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, Poimen said: Yeah not as good a run for western areas, but can't complain at this point. See you for 0Z. I definitely want the bullseye on Raleigh this far out. DT never fails to be amusing I'll give him that. Not 50% or 60% but precisely 55%. I mean I'm sure he has some silly reason like 55% of ensemble members have it or something but, uhh, it doesn't work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, Poimen said: Yeah not as good a run for western areas, but can't complain at this point. See you for 0Z. 18Z is more of what I'd think would happen with a northern stream, last minute blooming storm....eastern NC special. I need to see the trends continue SW to get me comfortable with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I definitely want the bullseye on Raleigh this far out. DT never fails to be amusing I'll give him that. Not 50% or 60% but precisely 55%. I mean I'm sure he has some silly reason like 55% of ensemble members have it or something but, uhh, it doesn't work like that.Only in his twisted mind is there logic for that. He wouldn't even be able to properly explain it to one of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18z GEFS QPF looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, JoshM said: 18z GEFS QPF looks good! As a mean, at this range, you bet I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 36 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: As a mean, at this range, you bet I’ll take it Seconded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Wow said: Seconded. Thirded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Thirded Fourthed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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