PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Delayed onset of precip is not good if temps are an issue. Precip will arrive at the worst time of day for accumulating snow with borderline BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 47 minutes ago, Lookout said: The destruction of the precip band as it crosses north ga only to reform quickly as it moves past has been maddening to see on the models. To see virtually *everyone* except north ga see at least some light snow in every direction is just too much. The good news is the models in general have been trending wetter and the eastern/southeastern upstate will be fine but it sure looks like there could be an area of super screwjobbing over north central ga/far western upstate...between the edge of downslope flow and the refiring of precip. The latest runs have me in the snow (except gfs) but it wouldn't take much for me not to be. Considering history here at ga's leeside screwzone, i wouldn't bet against it. I’m not sure whether to buy that or not. The SW flow aloft is somewhat concerning about possible higher amounts. To me it may be a scenario where downsloping occurs only in the classic areas immediately downwind of the mountains. I’m not sure the NW flow is deep enough across GA with the exception of the far NE areas for there to be legit downslope. This has potential to bust high along the I20 corridor if the models are overestimating what that lower level NW flow can do. Typically you need to have a fairly deep NW flow near ATL to downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Well that escalated quickly We've got to get the nam on board. Hopefully the icon and rgem starts this trend overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 42 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Yea I feel ya Lookout. The snow hole has pretty much all of Oconee getting the shaft while every one else gets at least a dusting. It truely is disheartening! Just my 54 years of experience living here...these type systems rarely produce anything for Oconee, Pickens, Greenville, Spartanburg and Cherokee counties. Those mountains creates a large amount of sheer or something. I'm not Met enough to explain it. But the mountains wring out all the moisture and the upper mass becomes very dry. It would be a perfect setup if we could tap some of the gulf moisture. But not looking good. I'd say .5 is about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 So you got these three - EURO op / Euro EPS and the NAM-3km. I'd say if you are in Wake Co you are still very very much in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This is what AKQ is thinking. They're talking about issuing a WWA after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 AKQ also had wording about the possibility for higher amounts across NE NC and Hampton Roads due to the LP popping offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well that escalated quickly If true, that pushes my into the .6 range.... wow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here's the ICON snow totals from TT. Some of the precipitation shown on @Queencitywx map above, apparently falls as rain before transitioning to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, calculus1 said: Here's the ICON snow totals from TT. Some of the precipitation shown on @Queencitywx map above, apparently falls as rain before transitioning to snow. None of it north of 85 falls as anything but snow so im surprised it’s so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 My forecast is rain tomorrow night at 9 pm, mixing with snow after 2 am..... I thought mixing wasn't an issue?geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The rgem and I believe the nam both show a mesolow in the upstate, as well as the icon now. The nam just petered everything out strangely per e Webb. It seems there is a very good chance that more moisture will be available for the piedmont. Well see. I'm surprised with the trends there is not a bit more caution from local Mets. They all seem to be poo pooing it. Trends today have been really good. If we can get the nam to show up I think local Mets will start to pay attention.The December storm was very much the same. The models were mostly screaming WSW criteria, but they chose to stay at an inch. Then they ramped it up last minute and caused a zombie apocalypse at the grocery stores.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: My forecast is rain tomorrow night at 9 pm, mixing with snow after 2 am..... I thought mixing wasn't an issue?geez mixing at the onset has always been the call. Supposed to change somewhat quickly over to straight snow. I'm not sure if its supposed to start as soon as 9 PM tomorrow night in charlotte, so...i'm not real sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: Based on current models, I agree. But... It's a tricky setup. Yes Mark. It sure is. I wonder how the soundings are looking for our areas? Hopefully they are not seeing something we are not, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m not sure whether to buy that or not. The SW flow aloft is somewhat concerning about possible higher amounts. To me it may be a scenario where downsloping occurs only in the classic areas immediately downwind of the mountains. I’m not sure the NW flow is deep enough across GA with the exception of the far NE areas for there to be legit downslope. This has potential to bust high along the I20 corridor if the models are overestimating what that lower level NW flow can do. Typically you need to have a fairly deep NW flow near ATL to downslope That and look at the trend of the 250mb jetstreak on the 12km NAM around hour 39-45. It's trending stronger and stronger every run. If that develops any earlier than progged, areas along and south of I-20 are going to get a surprise. 12z NAM 18z NAM Here it is on the 18z NAM at hour 42. The winds go bonkers at the 250mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 The german is around 32-33 at the surface for the entirety at the storm, which I think is too warm if its snowing at an inch per hour, which it shows on Wednesday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The Mets at the GSP office are some of the best in the country. Don't discount what their are saying, they are leaving themselves room to change their forecast but until we actually start seeing this unfold i think their forecast is very reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well the 18z CMC is quite the storm. Rough guess would be widespread .5” of qpf with pockets of .75-1” qpf. Much wetter than 12z run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: The german is around 32-33 at the surface for the entirety at the storm, which I think is too warm if its snowing at an inch per hour, which it shows on Wednesday Morning. Is there an 18z CMC ? Somebody posted a map and called it that, in animation, it looked fantastic. Had the explosion of precip right over GSP ( meso low?) any starts as rain for me, but lots of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amos83 said: The Mets at the GSP office are some of the best in the country. Don't discount what their are saying, they are leaving themselves room to change their forecast but until we actually start seeing this unfold i think their forecast is very reasonable Does no good to change once it starts. DOT treats roads based on NWS so if they ain’t honking they ain’t salting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: RGEM and ICON, Very Impressive! This looks much more realistic to me..never in 50 yrs of living in these mountains have I ever saw a band of heavy snow moving out of Tennessee, going poof once it hits the NC mountains, then reemerging in the peidmont.These models show the band holding together through the mountains which is normally what happens 99% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Hour 46 I'll take this!! Looks like about a 12 hour snow event possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Does no good to change once it starts. DOT treats roads based on NWS so if they ain’t honking they ain’t salting. Roads all over the CLT area are treated right now. It's not like GSP is saying it isn't going to do anything. They have ALL day tomorrow to watch and see how things are unfolding downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 So are the models trending slower with the onset of precipitation? Seems that way from these short range models. That spells trouble for central NC as the main precip gets here at maximum temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said: This looks much more realistic to me..never in 50 yrs of living in these mountains have I ever saw a band of heavy snow moving out of Tennessee, going poof once it hits the NC mountains, then reemerging in the peidmont.These models show the band holding together through the mountains which is normally what happens 99% of the time. Happened a lot before the year 2010. When it does, it hurts. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: So are the models trending slower with the onset of precipitation? Seems that way from these short range models. That spells trouble for central NC as the main precip gets here at maximum temps. Only the ones that are more amped with the trough. The ICON/RGEM/GGEM are nearly closing off the upper low and slowing the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 34 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said: Just my 54 years of experience living here...these type systems rarely produce anything for Oconee, Pickens, Greenville, Spartanburg and Cherokee counties. Those mountains creates a large amount of sheer or something. I'm not Met enough to explain it. But the mountains wring out all the moisture and the upper mass becomes very dry. It would be a perfect setup if we could tap some of the gulf moisture. But not looking good. I'd say .5 is about right. Yup and a lot of times these types of storms start reforming around our area after the mountains ring out moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Blacksburg going with about an inch possible!! .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 20 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 80 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with snow in the morning, then sunny in the afternoon. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 There's been many a snow band come from the west or northwest, hit the mountains and then you have nothing from the foothills to the triad. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 So before today I had never heard of the ICON. It has been the most cited model on this forum today. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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