Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The above image is the 18Z RGEM. Wow if in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: The above image is the 18Z RGEM. Wow if in the ballpark. Thanks for posting! Does the precip progress further east with time or stay mostly confined to the western half of the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: The destruction of the precip band as it crosses north ga only to reform quickly as it moves past has been maddening to see on the models. To see virtually *everyone* except north ga see at least some light snow in every direction is just too much. The good news is the models in general have been trending wetter and the eastern/southeastern upstate will be fine but it sure looks like there could be an area of super screwjobbing over north central ga/far western upstate...between the edge of downslope flow and the refiring of precip. The latest runs have me in the snow (except gfs) but it wouldn't take much for me not to be. Considering history here at ga's leeside screwzone, i wouldn't bet against it. Yea I feel ya Lookout. The snow hole has pretty much all of Oconee getting the shaft while every one else gets at least a dusting. It truely is disheartening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said: Thanks for posting! Does the precip progress further east with time or stay mostly confined to the western half of the state? That's the end of the run. Will have to come back at 0Z to see if it's the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here's more of the RGEM at 48. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is this trending slower? The map just posted looks far west for 1pm. Wake will be getting precip during the hottest part of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Here's more of the RGEM at 48. Wow. If this verifies and continues due East would this not hammer most if not all of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 20 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: ICON and new RGEM looks way better for the Atlanta area...wide spread 1-3 inches. I could see continue trends upward...finally models might be catching on to an earlier gulf moisture tap due to a sharper trough. I would be wary as the last 2 events the RGEM has not done too well. The 12km NAM has been hot and virtually shuts Atlanta out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mrdaddyman said: If this verifies and continues due East would this not hammer most if not all of NC? One would think so... Based on this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: That's the end of the run. Will have to come back at 0Z to see if it's the same. 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: That's the end of the run. Will have to come back at 0Z to see if it's the same. Thanks. Look forward to seeing what future runs bring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, oconeexman said: Yea I feel ya Lookout. The snow hole has pretty much all of Oconee getting the shaft while every one else gets at least a dusting. It truely is disheartening! It's one thing to not get snow but it's quite another when you can point in every direction and say they got some. I know we aren't talking big amounts or anything but it's quite ridiculous. I sure am thankful i got to see that big snow back in december but it's frustrating that despite all this cold that we can't get anything worthwhile here at home. Just now, Poimen said: That's the end of the run. Will have to come back at 0Z to see if it's the same. Probably more past that for upstate/nc foothills. rgem has 850mb low at the foot of the mountains and likely upslope flow/enhancement 48 hours and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The RGEM is a good short term model.. It did pretty well with the "bomb cyclone" if I remember correctly but it is definitely all alone with that solution. GFS still wants to paint a bullseye around RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The rgem and I believe the nam both show a mesolow in the upstate, as well as the icon now. The nam just petered everything out strangely per e Webb. It seems there is a very good chance that more moisture will be available for the piedmont. Well see. I'm surprised with the trends there is not a bit more caution from local Mets. They all seem to be poo pooing it. Trends today have been really good. If we can get the nam to show up I think local Mets will start to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, Lookout said: The destruction of the precip band as it crosses north ga only to reform quickly as it moves past has been maddening to see on the models. To see virtually *everyone* except north ga see at least some light snow in every direction is just too much. The good news is the models in general have been trending wetter and the eastern/southeastern upstate will be fine but it sure looks like there could be an area of super screwjobbing over north central ga/far western upstate...between the edge of downslope flow and the refiring of precip. The latest runs have me in the snow (except gfs) but it wouldn't take much for me not to be. Considering history here at ga's leeside screwzone, i wouldn't bet against it. Is this front coming in a SW-NE orientation or almost a due W/E orientation? It makes a difference as to how much downslope we get. Gainesville always gets the downsloping more than me, and Athens, well; they're just screwed in this situation I hate to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Not sure what TWC uses as animated radar, but it has snow getting to my back yard by 3 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Love seeing that green on top of me! Damn it, Brick. If you are going to hang out somewhere else 90% of the time, don't run back here when an event shows and post crap in the storm threads. Look at your first post.. It looks like it might not be your typical clipper coming over the mountains, though, if it taps into the Gulf. Let me translate that for you. "It might not be typical if it does non-typical things" in other words nonsense. If you want to post here as a storm only guest, you need to pick up your game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 ^ Not bad for the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Can anyone post the GFS 18z snow maps? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 RGEM and ICON, Very Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knowledgeispwr Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NWS in Raleigh's current thinking. They believe they will issue advisories tonight. NWS RAH's tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, knowledgeispwr said: NWS in Raleigh's current thinking. They believe they will issue advisories tonight. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's the latest winter weather briefing for Central NC. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ncwx?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ncwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/snow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#snow</a> <a href="https://t.co/CIdQEpEWku">pic.twitter.com/CIdQEpEWku</a></p>— NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSRaleigh/status/953025871656472586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> post didn't show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 32 minutes ago, Lookout said: Probably more past that for upstate/nc foothills. rgem has 850mb low at the foot of the mountains and likely upslope flow/enhancement 48 hours and beyond. Ha, we get that kind of look at 850mb and it's game on in the upstate, S Foothills, and S Piedmont The frantic tension with the posts in here is a trip. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well that escalated quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 If I was RAH, I'd do a watch simply because regardless of whether there's 2" or 4", the impact will be about the same as far as road conditions. Plus there is some upside potential above 4. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 that RGEM/ICON does not look good for Wake. Must be what RAH is looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Well that escalated quickly Ja Vol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: that RGEM/ICON does not look good for Wake. Must be what RAH is looking at. 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: that RGEM/ICON does not look good for Wake. Must be what RAH is looking at. Delayed, not denied! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: that RGEM/ICON does not look good for Wake. Must be what RAH is looking at. Well, GSP is doing the opposite. They are ignoring the RGEM/ICON/NAM and going with the globals. It seems each forecast office is going with the model(s) that give(s) the least amount of snow for their particular forecast area. I might do the same thing, if I had their jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, calculus1 said: Well, GSP is doing the opposite. They are ignoring the RGEM/ICON/NAM and going with the globals. It seems each forecast office is going with the model(s) that give(s) the least amount of snow for their particular forecast area. I might do the same thing, if I had their jobs. And that’s what people don’t understand. Most of our forecasts, if we’re not correct, nobody cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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