frazdaddy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Probably still snowing a little after that image? I hope. Yes, through 54 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 18z NAM did what I was expecting. The heavier precip field that hits the triad is shrinking as it moves east as the energy transfers to the Atlantic. Therefore, Wake County and east see less qpf. I've seen this before with clipper type systems. Could I be wrong? Of course but that is why I'm seeing 1 to 2 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said: I'm still learning to read the models. Can you tell me what you saw? I thought that it didn't look as deep and had more positive tilt. Do we want it more to the SW even if it means more positive tilt? Thnx Happy to answer. Definitely saw a better dig with the backside of the trough and it was meaningful. I do not think this thing is done trending in the qpf department. The NAM is attempting to show how the qpf shield will expand, however I do not believe it is expansive enough yet. The trough did go neutral there and that would lead to a better advection of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yes, I think the precip will still be falling after 1PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, rduwx said: The 18z NAM did what I was expecting. The heavier precip field that hits the triad in shrinking as it moves east as the energy transfers to the Atlantic. Therefore, Wake County and east see less qpf. I've seen this before with clipper type systems. Could I be wrong? Of course but that is why I'm seeing 1 to 2 inches here. Two inches would quadruple what I had with the last system. Getting an inch of snow is so hard anymore. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Two inches would quadruple what I had with the last system. Getting an inch of snow is so hard anymore. Sheesh. I agree Cold Rain. I'd take my 1 to 2 and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Happy to answer. Definitely saw a better dig with the backside of the trough and it was meaningful. I do not think this thing is done trending in the qpf department. The NAM is attempting to show how the qpf shield will expand, however I do not believe it is expansive enough yet. The trough did go neutral there and that would lead to a better advection of moisture. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Didn't paste the discussion but GSP going with trace to 1" in upstate with 1" and possibly higher amounts toward I 77. WWA to be issued for higher elevations of western NC. I am sure they still have time to adjust depending on later model runs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3k NAM trying to get me and Mack 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, ncskywarn said: 18Z 3K NAM out to 60 hours. Looks like it says it's the 12z run. I wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Cary getting out done by Sanford more than 2-1? Again?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 If I had to guess for northern mecklenburg and southern Iredell: 5% T or less 50% 1-2” 30% 3-5” 15% 6” I think we we lose less QPF to rain or mix than people assume and we go through half the event cranking out some 15:1 ratios or even higher. If we end up with less, I think it’s because the models were too generous with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 need advisory from statesville to raleigh 1-3". i think some will fail to reach criteria in the hills may just go with special weather statement for a coating to 1" from mount airy,nc to greenville,sc.western mountain counties need advisory too west of boone 1-4". final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here is the updated NAM 3K Kuchera for 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 You thinking more mixing in South meck or about the same as north? 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: If I had to guess for northern mecklenburg and southern Iredell: 5% T or less 50% 1-2” 30% 3-5” 15% 6” I think we we lose less QPF to rain or mix than people assume and we go through half the event cranking out some 15:1 ratios or even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18Z 3K NAM out to 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, broken024 said: You thinking more mixing in South meck or about the same as north? There’s always a slightly better chance of that in the S and SE metro but I really think evaporational cooling is going to overwhelm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: If I had to guess for northern mecklenburg and southern Iredell: 5% T or less 50% 1-2” 30% 3-5” 15% 6” I think we we lose less QPF to rain or mix than people assume and we go through half the event cranking out some 15:1 ratios or even higher. If we end up with less, I think it’s because the models were too generous with QPF. Good call. NWS-GSP updated forecast has less than 1" on Tuesday evening. Which sounds right and would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: Looks like it says it's the 12z run. I wish! Thanks for catching that. I didn't update the run time updated now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GSP not excited at all..only posted 3 mountain counties under a WWA, and for only above 3500' at that. What is surprising is they are giving 3-4 hours of ..rain..in the mountains...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: GSP not excited at all..only posted 3 mountain counties with a WWA, and for only above 3500' at that. I would have thought all of WNC would be a wwa. if anythng at all falls it will stick and not melt it wouldn't take much for the roads to be solid ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Panovich says at most a half inch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The ICON is going to be beefy again over the western piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: Panovich says at most a half inch.... he usually starts his calls OVERLY conservative and then walks his totals up a smidge within 12-24 hours. We may get 1/2 inch...but thats just my observation in regards to panovich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: Looks beefy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Tacoma said: I would have thought all of WNC would be a wwa. if anythng at all falls it will stick and not melt it wouldn't take much for the roads to be solid ice and snow. GSP basically saying rain from 1pm-7pm,then snow from 7pm-8pm..then it's over. Never thought rain would be a problem in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: Starts later, but a lot healthier precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The difference is all in the trough orientation. The ICON and GGEM/RGEM are the most neutral/sharper...thus more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Looks beefy. At least half an inch QPF this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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