Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I don't believe there will be that much rain at the outset, at least in the Triad. The NAM has us around 35 at the beginning with a very cold profile above and we quickly drop into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 18Z NAM is going to be a nice event for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: The 18Z NAM is going to be a nice event for most of us. You beat me to it Poimen. 48 is MUCH improved. The qpf finally showed up. I was gonna say this is not going to pitch a shutout with the differences showing up upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Sounds like the Gulf is going to be open for business on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Best I can tell, it snows here for about 10 hours with temps crashing through the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I will take that in a heartbeat here in the southern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That's a sharp cutoff in the east unless I'm missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 32 and 12K NAM clearly hate Cheeznado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Much better expansion of qpf field to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Kuchera method has 4" totals in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 the location of the left exit region will be key to determining who cashes out with higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Kuchera method has 4" totals in the Triad. yeah, you might come under WSWs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Much better expansion of qpf field to the west. The 18z run was even drier than the 12z for our area Buddy. According to the 18z it looks like accumulations will be less than an inch in our area. Hopefully it will end up shifting NW some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Man that gulf tap really got pumping on the NAM once the frontal boundary got over the mountains. Big uptick in totals in the souther part of the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcld76 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Much better expansion of qpf field to the west. Theoretically is everything above the 0 degree 850 line snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: You beat me to it Poimen. 48 is MUCH improved. The qpf finally showed up. I was gonna say this is not going to pitch a shutout with the differences showing up upstairs. I'm still learning to read the models. Can you tell me what you saw? I thought that it didn't look as deep and had more positive tilt. Do we want it more to the SW even if it means more positive tilt? Thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM still showing the sweet spot in the Triad. Euro and UK has it further east. Maybe they'll meet in the middle. Good thing is the trend remains positive and precip actually increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Theoretically is everything above the 0 degree 850 line snow?Theoretically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 So for the Triangle----The latest euro, gfs and NAM all drop 1.5" or greater. Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Hi Res NAM is looking similar but maybe a little drier for northern areas. Not bad but nothing special.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 From Eric Webber: The NAM could have dropped much more snow that run but after 48 hours it tried to string the wave out again for some odd reason thereafter even though the wave actually looked better in general to cut-off. The way it's been trending inside 48 hours, we might have an even beefier storm before long on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 'NCSnow' is in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: So for the Triangle----The latest euro, gfs and NAM all drop 1.5" or greater. Not too shabby Yeah, I think there’s still room for precip amounts to go up as we get closer. Not sure where the max amounts will be, but a good swath of 1-3 inches over a large area looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM has the same exact total for me this run as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res NAM is looking similar but maybe a little drier for northern areas. Not bad but nothing special.. That looks about right for SE wake. Is that drop off because we lose QPF to rain? Ugg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, SEwakenosnowforu said: That looks about right for SE wake. Probably still snowing a little after that image? I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Turner Team said: The 18z run was even drier than the 12z for our area Buddy. According to the 18z it looks like accumulations will be less than an inch in our area. Hopefully it will end up shifting NW some. I agree, but I have seen sneaky events like this and don't believe the qpf field is correlating correctly to what is being shown upstairs. It had a much improved look compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Next ICON model will be out in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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