Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: thats odd....doesn't look like hardly any of the models that are out there I know. All of them are showing anywhere from 2 to 4 for Wake now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: wrong. what temperature issues do they see? I think we all know this will not be a heavy snow event. But isolated accums of 6"+ are not out of the questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I know. All of them are showing anywhere from 2 to 4 for Wake now. not just that, but the gradients are off. Its like they had an intern that knows that its colder the further north you go just throw a map together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: wrong. what temperature issues do they see? I think we all know this will not be a heavy snow event. But isolated accums of 6"+ are not out of the questions. Maybe they will increase tomorrow. This seems like their standard way of doing things now. Start with an inch and increase as the storm unfolds if needed so they never bust. Even though they were way too low with amounts to the west and south with the last storm. I think they're okay with that, but don't want to bust the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NCDOT treating roads in Catawba and Lincoln Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Maybe they will increase tomorrow. This seems like their standard way of doing things now. Start with an inch and increase as the storm unfolds if needed so they never bust. Even though they were way too low with amounts to the west and south with the last storm. I think they're okay with that, but don't want to bust the other way. I think your obs of 2-4" seems good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliapalooza Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Brad Panovich posted a video today... He thinks it isn’t anything to get excited about: a “less than perfect” setup with little impacts beyond the morning rush hour on Wednesday considering how warm it is supposed to be tomorrow. I noticed while I was taking one of my pups to the vet in Davidson that DOT has already treated I-485 in North Charlotte as well as I-77 North. I also saw two snow plows ❄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Johnston Co. roads being treated. Wake got started earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Juliapalooza said: Brad Panovich posted a video today... He thinks it isn’t anything to get excited about: a “less than perfect” setup with little impacts beyond the morning rush hour on Wednesday considering how warm it is supposed to be tomorrow. He may be right, but h better hope the rgem, cmc, icon, and aren't right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Brad is always out to lunch until 12 hours before the storm. It’s way too cold and nothing will melt Wednesday for some with highs below freezing near foothills. Ground temp 36 argues for accumulation on roads too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I believe the 18z Nam already looks a smidge better @14 just looking at 5h. Edit:@17 better dig on the backside and more south into OK. A little sharper as well. Precip at 850 corresponding to this as well, with a shift a little more northwest and a little juicier as well. Got a good feeling about this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Brad had me at 1” last storm ended up with 6”. He always increases 12 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'm not real excited about this one either. I'm in the 1 maybe 2 inches for Wake County. I think WRAL's first call map looks about right at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, rduwx said: I'm not real excited about this one either. I'm in the 1 maybe 2 inches for Wake County. I think WRAL's first call map looks about right at this point. Look right based on what? 2 inches is the minimum amount shown for Wake on the models. The Euro and UK just had 4 inches from Raleigh to Roanoke Rapids their last runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, rduwx said: I'm not real excited about this one either. I'm in the 1 maybe 2 inches for Wake County. I think WRAL's first call map looks about right at this point. Have you not looked at the models today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM sounds like it might come in wetter this time, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, WakeCountyWX said: Have you not looked at the models today? Yes, I've looked at the models. Waiting on the NAM now (out to 24). I'm going off past experiences with this type of setup and clippers. I also think there could be some BL issues at the onset before changing to all snow. That seems to always happen. Hopefully I'm wrong but that's what I'd go with right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Each progressive run of the euro seems to be trending SE. Maybe it's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 RAH this afternoon... Confidence is increasing slightly as NWP model guidance is starting to come into better agreement in both timing and liquid equivalents. Current timing suggest precip onset and transition to all snow between 06 to 09z in the Triad, around 12z(daybreak) in the Triangle, and then 12 to 15z in the east/southeast, with a 6 to 9 hour window of precip expected thereafter before significant/aggressive drying aloft overwhelms the area, ending precip. Deterministic model guidance is right in line with the the SREF ensemble mean of a 0.10 to 0.20" liquid qpf across the area, 20-30 percent of which will likely not go to frozen accumulation owing to rain or rain/snow mix expected at onset. However, given strong column cooling, once precip changes over to all snow, snow ratios are apt to be high, averaging 12-15:1. This would result in the potential for a swath of light snowfall accumulations across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, with amounts ranging from a half inch along a line extending from Albemarle to Southern Pine to Goldsboro, to as much 1.5 to 2.0" across the far northern- Virginia bordering counties. Potential other scenarios that could unfold are: If more progressive solutions similar to that of the GFS verify, which quickly dries out the <-10C ice nucleation layer, we could see more sleet or snow mixed with sleet, which would significantly reduce snow accumulations across the area. Barring no major forecast/model changes, a winter weather advisory will likely be needed for these areas for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, rduwx said: Yes, I've looked at the models. Waiting on the NAM now (out to 24). I'm going off past experiences with this type of setup and clippers. I also think there could be some BL issues at the onset before changing to all snow. That seems to always happen. Hopefully I'm wrong but that's what I'd go with right now. Waiting on the NAM to to help verify as well. Also would like to see 2 runs in a row for GFS (18z) before I begin to believe the updated totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: Brad had me at 1” last storm ended up with 6”. He always increases 12 hours before. he has the same information as we do and a heck of a lot more experience and education and 99% of the time people here wishcasting for storms to overperform look like fools when we get a flizzard. he is like fishel, wants to be correct not first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, rduwx said: Yes, I've looked at the models. Waiting on the NAM now (out to 24). I'm going off past experiences with this type of setup and clippers. I also think there could be some BL issues at the onset before changing to all snow. That seems to always happen. Hopefully I'm wrong but that's what I'd go with right now. The best analogy I could say to this post is that every potential storm is different. What happened in prior setups doesn't necessarily correlate with what will happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Good dig with the trough on the backside at 31. This is what we obv want to see for increased moisture influx toward our regions. Edit: When toggling the images between one another, the noticeable southwest motion is more evident. It continues at 33 as well. I really think this one over performs. Just that gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, nam0806 said: The best analogy I could say to this post is that every potential storm is different. What happened in prior setups doesn't necessarily correlate with what will happen here. And that's fine and would agree, every storm is different, but from looking at all the model runs so far, my call would be 1 to 2 inches for Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Seems like WRAL and RAH are in agreement, which they usually are. Models are models and both organizations seem to be taking into account the BL issues that usually accompany systems like this anytime we are banking on a changeover from rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, rduwx said: And that's fine and would agree, every storm is different, but from looking at all the model runs so far, my call would be 1 to 2 inches for Wake County. That's reasonable. I would think that 1-3 inches is the safest call for now. It could be more or less, but it seems like we may be coming to a consensus before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 My forecast is John Fox football conservative, but it's what I believe for now. There is no way to accurately predict localized snow maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM is digging significantly more to the SW this run but seems to be backing off on qpf for the lee side of the apps, you can see the precip break up then reform east of them. Looks sort of like the Euro/GFS idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, snowlover91 said: NAM is digging significantly more to the SW this run but seems to be backing off on qpf for the lee side of the apps, you can see the precip break up then reform east of them. Looks sort of like the Euro/GFS idea. Yea I thought it was a way better run at 5h but it didn't correspond on the qpf side. hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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