Thor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Precipitation kept going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4" is warning criteria for somebody out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Was kind of disappointed in the EURO honestly. It trended towards the GFS precip depiction but a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Allan’s 1st call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I remember an event in the early 2000’s that had a similar setup, none of the models picked up on the low that formed in NW S.C. that slowly slid due east and dumped 6-10” in the foothills when most of the models were showing 1-2” totals. Something to keep an eye on. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That dry slot in the immediate lee of the mountains is still very pronounced in the global models (GFS, ECMWF). I think both print out some snow in Hickory, but it's still so close that it's not comfortable at all. The mesoscale models tend to have more snow in the immediate lee. I'm hoping they are correct, while realizing those on the eastern side of the state are pulling for the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I suspect Allan's A-zone may end up shifting SE. Maybe not to Wake county but more over Granville-Durham-Orange-Chatham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, wake4est said: Allan’s 1st call I think higher totals could come further east like the Euro and UK are showing now. I know the GFS or NAM have the higher totals further west, but also further south than that, while the other one has it further east but north of Roanoke Rapids. Would love to see a large area from Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids with 3 to 6 inches, though. I think that's possible, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Euro approximate precip start/end times below. It's showing a broad precip band that develops and stands east of the mountains. Overall, the precip is light (enhanced in eastern half of NC), but the band doesn't race through which makes sense given the relative slow motion of the trough: AVL: 5PM Tues / 8AM Wed GSP: 10PM Tues / 10AM Wed CLT: 12AM Wed / Noon Wed GSO: 1AM Wed / 1PM Wed RDU: 4AM Wed / 8PM Wed PGV: Noon Wed / 10PM Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 24 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: I remember an event in the early 2000’s that had a similar setup, none of the models picked up on the low that formed in NW S.C. that slowly slid due east and dumped 6-10” in the foothills when most of the models were showing 1-2” totals. Something to keep an eye on. . Remember that storm very well. It was on Martin Luther King birthday. Forecast was for a couple inches but no big deal. Woke up the next morning to 8 inches of snow. Always enjoy snowstorms that over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Crazy how little QPF the Euro spits out given the duration of the precip....here's a Euro vs. CMC QPF comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'll take the inch advertised by the euro and call it a win with this event. Hoping though the mesolow in the upstate the cmc is hinting at comes true. Happy to see that and the ukmet start to up the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Overall now though, we are definitely close enough that the short range models will be better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Crazy how little QPF the Euro spits out given the duration of the precip....here's a Euro vs. CMC QPF comparison Will be interesting to see the 18z Nam comparison in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 I wonder if the Euro’s dry bias is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, griteater said: Crazy how little QPF the Euro spits out given the duration of the precip....here's a Euro vs. CMC QPF comparison Boy, the CMC sure does look tasty. Hope that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I wonder if the Euro’s dry bias is showing Euro was what led the way with a more amped system yesterday. Very surprised to see others amp up and it basically fizzle out until it gets east. Not sure what to think here other than I want the cmc to verify. Also, the emphasis out east agrees with the nam 3k so that to me gives more value to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, griteater said: Crazy how little QPF the Euro spits out given the duration of the precip....here's a Euro vs. CMC QPF comparison If I am not mistaken, hasn't the Euro always had issues with closed off solutions, Lee trough, etc.? Maybe I have it mixed up with something else. Maybe take a blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 nice jump in the 15z sref plumes for clt. mean is 1.2" or so. up from .7". hope that means the nam is about to come in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15z Sref for RDU up to 1.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Given the 12z euro and gfs outputs anxiously awaiting the 18z NAM now-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snovary said: 15z Sref for RDU up to 1.6" Is that the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think many on here would like the RGEM ensembles here... Pretty juicy for Western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Is that the mean? Yes, also since this isn't a coastal storm I'm not seeing the crazy outliers so the mean seems more reasonable than it normally would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I think many on here would like the RGEM ensembles here... Pretty juicy for Western NC. Those do look very nice, and if I'm not mistaken, looking at the isobars in the upstate, it's picking up the mesolow, which would explain the nice precip in wnc. Makes sense considering the cmc has this feature as well. Hope it's right. I'd really like the nam to start showing this feature to think I'm getting anything over a dusting to am inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I think many on here would like the RGEM ensembles here... Pretty juicy for Western NC. WOW! CLT is sitting in a good spot on this one. Wish that could come to fruition. SMH. It is NOT EVER that easy in the Burger Triangle of NO SNOW HELL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: thats odd....doesn't look like hardly any of the models that are out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 One of the models last week was hinting at the lee side low development over the upstate of sc. Would be great if that happened, it usually works the complete opposite around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: That’s WRAL for ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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