Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Good to see qpf rising across the 12Z suite. The UK is .3" or higher for almost all of central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z GEFS a bit wetter as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here’s the UK precip for those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: 12z GFS Kuchera map: Nothing for the Upstate. Ouch. Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd Quote GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES...NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN AT THE SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE HAND-OFF IN THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT W ATLANTIC AS A SYSTEM DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. MID-LEVEL TROUGH (OR PERHAPS CLOSED LOW) SHOULD EXIT THE DELMARVA EARLY THURSDAY PER THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN (AND THEIR ENSEMBLES) BUT THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS (AND GEFS ENSEMBLES) WERE QUICKER/WEAKER WITH IT. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE GFS TO BE TOO QUICK OPTED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE SLOWER CAMP BUT STILL PREFERRED A QUICKER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF-LED CLUSTER VERBATIM. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PMDHMD (SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION) FOR DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE (AND WITH THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE) AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THAT TIME RANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Chris Justus increased his snow confidence meter to 4/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, drfranklin said: Chris Justus increased his snow confidence meter to 4/10 Why? The GFS has zilch for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Nothing for the Upstate. Ouch. Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. Really? Storm cancel already based on the lone model without precip there? I would hope we can do better in the thread than this ...not that I'm pedicting a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS/UKMET/some short range is a strong hand to beat with the immediate Lee side skip-a-roo-roo. Going to be surprises of more or less until it occurs or doesn’t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Why? The GFS has zilch for the area. It makes me nervous too (though it technically doesn't have "zilch." The trend is pretty obvious though. Hopefully it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Why? The GFS has zilch for the area. You really going to bank on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Really? Storm cancel already based on the lone model without precip there? I would hope we can do better in the thread than this ...not that I'm pedicting a blizzard Yep, and wpc is leaning away from the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Why? The GFS has zilch for the area. IMO, I would not rely on a global model at this range, focus on mesoscale/NAM/SREF now - remember all this is just guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Euro coming in is a little colder this run. Looks decent with precip out to 51. Fairly broad swath of light QPF thru the 3hr frames...some enhancement from Pinehurst to Triangle and eastern Triad at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Mods can move this biut they are already treating the roads in oconee county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Really? Storm cancel already based on the lone model without precip there? I would hope we can do better in the thread than this ...not that I'm pedicting a blizzard Thank god he didn't start the thread . GFS has been dry for like days now. On an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Why? The GFS has zilch for the area. ...and it's like the worst precip model for your area, yet its moving/trending towards you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: Yep, and wpc is leaning away from the GFS solution. I'm in agreement with Griteater. The WPC discussion I posted above basically expresses low confidence in a final solution and forecast. There are some big differences between models in the short and medium range, and I would argue that there exists noticeable differences between observations and models in the short range. There are just so many factors at play with this event. Don't think we'll have a good idea until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Slight enhancement to the precip on the Euro in eastern Piedmont to eastern NC....but a decent QPF run overall for both Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Initial precip kind of skips Atlanta, but reforms with the new band in east Atlanta to Athens....some light snow there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Initial precip kind of skips Atlanta, but reforms with the new band in east Atlanta to Athens....some light snow there Looks good from the crappy maps I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Euro goes boom for Raleigh to Roanoke Rapids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Nothing for the Upstate. Ouch. Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Snovary said: Looks like LR models , GFS and Euro are slowly trending towards shorter range models, and will take a few more runs to pick up on leeside redevelopment , or they may never catch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snovary said: Taken literally, I might need to run home to raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snovary said: From that map, it looks like we all want a 300 mile shift southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 hours ago, griteater said: Current run vs. previous run on Euro. It wasn't as good at 500mb...lighter amounts To continue the comparison, here's today's 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: To continue the comparison, here's today's 12z Euro More of a GFS look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like Euro increased the precip for more folks overall. Really think anywhere from Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids can be the sweet spot. The models have been showing various spots. Euro looks between the GFS and NAM, and like the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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