FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z GFS Kuchera map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: 12z GFS Kuchera map: GFS has the sweet spot further NE, NAM has it further SW. Would be nice for me if it actually ends up in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Wind Chill Advisories coming east of the mountains, NWS thinks 5 degrees below zero for Surry, Yadkin and Wilkes. Winter Weather Advisories coming east of the mountains for 1-2" of snow in later package. They may combine them, unsure yet. Bare with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It's strange how the GFS has been steadfast in showing precip North and east of RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: It's strange how the GFS has been steadfast in showing precip North and east of RDU. I like this since there are others showing a chunk west of us. Just hope there is no snow hole....again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is it possible the GFS is going with more of an energy transfer similar to a Miller B? While the other models are simply showing a frontal passage with no transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Not showing up on NOAA NWS map yet Its for like 2 counties in SW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 New UK continues the theme of a weaker band crossing the mountains and stronger qpf in Eastern NC, possibly due to the weak low it pops off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That looks like more precip in western areas than it has been showing on the UKMet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I remember . It was 03. I was forecast the afternoon of the storm for 1-3" was bumped up to 3-5" by 10. Temp was 49 in the evening, started about 1 AM, temps crashed, got about 4-5", Spartanburg had som 10-12" total I got 0 inches from that one... which is typical climo for my locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: New UK continues the theme of a weaker band crossing the mountains and stronger qpf in Eastern NC, possibly due to the weak low it pops off the coast. Love seeing that green on top of me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 If the temps on the UK cooperate, that could be a good little snow for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here's the Hour 54 and Hour 60 soundings for KECG per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: New UK continues the theme of a weaker band crossing the mountains and stronger qpf in Eastern NC, possibly due to the weak low it pops off the coast. .25 QDF at 15:1 is 3.75” for my area, that’s even more than the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 JMA total precip... I like the idea of a maximum around where it's showing it, maybe from there back to about Spartanburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: That looks like more precip in western areas than it has been showing on the UKMet though That's what I thought . Looks good for us! Band is wide too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, griteater said: That looks like more precip in western areas than it has been showing on the UKMet though It starting trending 0z last night and continues today. Futher west and beefier precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: That looks like more precip in western areas than it has been showing on the UKMet though Grit, Have you noticed depending on the model the focus areas of highest precip seem to be in several different places for NC? Ranging from just east of Charlotte, to north of Charlotte to northeast of Raleigh? No real consensus on where the top amounts will occur that i can see. All over the board in NC sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Grit, Have noticed depending on the model the focus areas of highest precip seem to be in several different places for NC? Ranging from just east of Charlotte, to north of Charlotte to northeast of Raleigh? No real consensus on where the top mounts will occur that i can see. All over the board in NC sort of. That's why I'm hoping they meet in the middle. Even better, just spread from Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids. The UK was a good look for almost all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Grit, Have you noticed depending on the model the focus areas of highest precip seem to be in several different places for NC? Ranging from just east of Charlotte, to north of Charlotte to northeast of Raleigh? No real consensus on where the top amounts will occur that i can see. All over the board in NC sort of. I like the idea of a decent precip band rolling off the mountains for all areas to the coast, with enhanced pockets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 all the temp concerns are silly. this is a arctic front. worry about how much moisture can be tapped from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Is it possible the GFS is going with more of an energy transfer similar to a Miller B? While the other models are simply showing a frontal passage with no transfer? I think the GFS is indicating a more progressive frontal passage sweeping through the eastern U.S. that allows one wave to ride up the coast. Other global models are presenting a slower frontal passage that allows two waves to ride up the coast before sweeping through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: all the temp concerns are silly. this is a arctic front. worry about how much moisture can be tapped from the gulf. And what if the cold air gets held up by the mountains and delayed a few hours and the precip is mostly gone before the cold air is deep enough for snow? We've seen that happen before and the upstate warm bubble are both worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well, here in East Georgia I’m definitely rooting hard against the GFS and NAM... Have yet to see as much as a flake in Athens this year. Snowed to our north and west and to our southeast. Would be hard to watch decent snows fall to the west, only to go poof and reorganize to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: all the temp concerns are silly. this is a arctic front. worry about how much moisture can be tapped from the gulf. NEVER discount mixing issues in central NC. Several models are showing BL concerns. That's not to say that it won't change over to all snow but a lot of times a whole lot of precip is lost to rain before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ukie has .30'' into Charlotte,Greensboro,Raleigh and all the central piedmont.Has .20 on the northwest fringes of that. Trending wetter and more northwest,it might not be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Extracted German data shows .51 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Extracted German data shows .51 QPF That's warning criteria..... even without the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Would be nice to see a large strip like this from Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids. Kind of like what the UK showed, and if you combine the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has .30'' into Charlotte,Greensboro,Raleigh and all the central piedmont.Has .20 on the northwest fringes of that. Trending wetter and more northwest,it might not be done. German puts down half an inch in my, yours and wow’s back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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