Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It looks like it might not be your typical clipper coming over the mountains, though, if it taps into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: We currently have a lot of good trends. However, now is a really good time to step back and look at what could go wrong. Since I'm in the triad just east of the mountains, I'll kick it off for this area. Feel free to add more areas/regions. NC Piedmont - most all models are showing between 1-5" of snow with the most being north and around the Triad area. Of all winter setups for this region, the least reliable are those relying on anything that comes over the mountains paired with redevelopment east of the mountains. Most times, the moisture coming over the mountains will dry up, so I would assume that's a zero for the band making it over the mountains. As for redevelopment, it does happen, but is the most difficult to forecast and most often busts on the wrong side. I'm hopeful for this one but still pretty skeptical at anything over an inch and really expecting more of a heavy dusting. TW But some models, RGEM for one, are showing a gulf tap and SW moisture transport, that wouldn't have to cross the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 knock on wood but it feels like its been a long time, years, since the last lee side skip with redevelopment winston east. Like year 2010 and before featured more of this. had we not got soaked my several inches of rain recently, i would for sure say this setup would blank my *** ****. but, i think moisture is coming this go around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I would caution, this is not your run of the mill clipper. If so, in my Location, I wouldn’t even be paying attention to this in the Lee of the apps as I know how this usually works out. This is a different set up totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I would caution, this is not your run of the mill clipper. If so, in my Location, I wouldn’t even be paying attention to this in the Lee of the apps as I know how this usually works out. This is a different set up totally. And we should know soon if you are correct. As it stands now, I’m intrigued! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think the main difference between a more or less amped solutions outcome seems to be the interplay between our exiting west Atlantic low (energy), and our primary low located over the Great Lakes. The GFS run demonstrates this very clearly. Greater separation between two system (seen on 500mb vort map) allows heights to build along the coast, resulting in a less positive trough and more energy bending collecting and bending backwards. This separation allows our wave to strengthen further west, and creates more interplay between the tropical front (airmass) located over the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Does anyone have the latest CMC map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Watch out for an upstate warm bubble if the meso models are right in depicting a weak low there. See this RGEM image for reference. It's hard to know how much of an effect this could have and 850s appear cold so maybe minimal, but for folks in that area I would watch and see how this trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PGAWx said: Does anyone have the latest CMC map? Brings 4-6" to mby verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Watch out for an upstate warm bubble if the meso models are right in depicting a weak low there. See this RGEM image for reference. It's hard to know how much of an effect this could have and 850s appear cold so maybe minimal, but for folks in that area I would watch and see how this trends. This is believable. Is usually a big issue in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Brings 4-6" to mby verbatim. Looks good. 1 to 3 for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I only make one call map for an event and just for my neck of the woods: Not one to waffle and adjust every 6hrs leading into an event. If it Bust Ill loose zero paid subscriptions lol. Anyway seen enough and for Forsyth,Davidson,Guilford,Randolph going with 2-5. Think if there is a chance for anyone to lollipop and kiss the 6 inch mark its somewhere in the 85 corridor. So we'll see how she turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Brings 4-6" to mby verbatim. One thing about that map is it runs on 10:1. I think we could do as well as 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: I only make one call map for an event and just for my neck of the woods: Not one to waffle and adjust every 6hrs leading into an event. If it Bust Ill loose zero paid subscriptions lol. Anyway seen enough and for Forsyth,Davidson,Guilford,Randolph going with 2-5. Think if there is a chance for anyone to lollipop and kiss the 6 inch mark its somewhere in the 85 corridor. So we'll see how she turns out. I think that’s a decent call. If I had to draw a maximum snow potential area, it would be the triad west to Iredell and maybe Rowan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Watch out for an upstate warm bubble if the meso models are right in depicting a weak low there. See this RGEM image for reference. It's hard to know how much of an effect this could have and 850s appear cold so maybe minimal, but for folks in that area I would watch and see how this trends. Usually only a concern at 850 levels, not concerned just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: One thing about that map is it runs on 10:1. I think we could do as well as 15:1. Yep, definitely we'll have the 850s on hand to achieve better than 10 to 1. we should be able to pin point these tommorow night. Right now Im with you 15:1 definetly not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 shots fired, first winter weather advisories are out for some in North Carolina that stretches back to winter storm warnings in Texas to maybe Mexico. large swatch of products out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 15:1 at .36 is half a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Usually only a concern at 850 levels, not concerned just yet Yeah I wouldn't be too concerned just yet since 850s appear cold but I will say the 925mb and surface layer on the RGEM are very marginal... so it's something to watch going forward. The globals won't pick this up as well as the RGEM/NAM will and I've seen these meso-lows/warm bubbles cause major issues at go time for these areas over the years. Not saying it will here but with delayed cold and a meso low it's not a great combo. In this situation you'd want heavier rates to help cool the lowest levels more effectively, anything light would likely be rain initially and really cut back on any accumulation chances IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks good. 1 to 3 for most of NC. Nice to see you Brick! Interesting setup. As with most storms we're going to have to wait for go time to see how this storm affects the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: This is believable. Is usually a big issue in this area Looking at NAM soundings, the warmth is in the lowest layer. This is easier to overcome than a warm nose aloft. Having said that, there could definitely be a little precip wasted at onset. The upstate warm bubble upstate area is most susceptible, but other areas northeast of there aren't immune in this setup. This storm is a totally different setup, but temperature wise, it reminds me alot of the early Dec storm. In that one, steady precip was able to overcome the low level warmth in the upstate and flip them to snow. We want everything to be simple, but it's not...it's a close call in the upstate and moving northeast of there in terms of how much precip is wasted at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: Nice to see you Brick! Interesting setup. As with most storms we're going to have to wait for go time to see how this storm affects the Triangle. I think we'll see snow. How much just depends on the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I think we'll see snow. How much just depends on the ratios. I think ratios will depend on precip rates and duration. We need a big (unbroken) band to cross our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 advisory is for 1-3" in south-western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 UKMet looks improved to me with the trough on the early crude maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: advisory is for 1-3" in south-western NC. Not showing up on NOAA NWS map yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Does anyone remember the storm back in 2002 (or 2003?)?? where the models showed 1-2" for a lot of the areas and closer to game time some models would ramp up the moisture but flip back and forth. This is what I call the "fly in the ointment" storm. This is when GSP issued an alert and said that there is a "fly in the ointment" and the next thing I knew, we had Thundersnow and 12" on the ground. That was a helluva surprise. I wish I could remember which year though to see exactly what happened. I believe we had a ULL form or something. Cannot quite remember... @Queencitywx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Entire state of TN under WWA. Far western 2 counties in NC under WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yeah I'm not as concerned about low level warmth. In early December we switched from rain to heavy snow to sleet back to rain back to snow. Don't think that will be the case with this strong front moving all the way through the upstate.this looks like a rain to snow and staying snow til the end type of set up. I'm hopeful a backend snow shower and I'm honestly very happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, Rankin5150 said: Does anyone remember the storm back in 2002 (or 2003?)?? where the models showed 1-2" for a lot of the areas and closer to game time some models would ramp up the moisture but flip back and forth. This is what I call the "fly in the ointment" storm. This is when GSP issued an alert and said that there is a "fly in the ointment" and the next thing I knew, we had Thundersnow and 12" on the ground. That was a helluva surprise. I wish I could remember which year though to see exactly what happened. I believe we had a ULL form or something. Cannot quite remember... @Queencitywx I remember . It was 03. I was forecast the afternoon of the storm for 1-3" was bumped up to 3-5" by 10. Temp was 49 in the evening, started about 1 AM, temps crashed, got about 4-5", Spartanburg had som 10-12" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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