Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

[WarmNose]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

eps isnt out yet unless you got it extremely early.

Is apologize. I was looking at the 12z members on weather.us 

[griteater]

The EPS is definitely improved this run with the 500mb wave...sharper and more southwest...but it generally follows with how the Op run is trending

[NC_hailstorm]

Just looking at 500mb,the Euro looks good at 120 if it's right.

Strong shortwave diving south/southwest going neutral at around 120,there should be some strong forcing there and I wouldn't rule out some thundersnow either.

Not your classic set up for snow but there's more than one way to skin a cat.Carry on.

 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

Jan 2003 looks right to me...notice SE wake co

 

 

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

Feb 6th of 84, analog thrown out on other place.

[Isopycnic]

Congrats Boone!

[tramadoc]

Don't know how similar it is, but reminds me of the January 23, 2003 widespread NC snow storm.  

That one gave KECG 5"

[frazdaddy]

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Feb 6th of 84, analog thrown out on other place.

[Poimen]

1 minute ago, tramadoc said:

28 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Don't know how similar it is, but reminds me of the January 23, 2003 widespread NC snow storm.  

That one gave KECG 5"

One of my all time favorites on the coast (I'm from Kill Devil Hills, been a landlubber for 7 years now). That one featured a "meso" low along the foothills, and this one seems like it could do something similar. Looking at 5h maps, it somewhat similar, though that trough was situated even further north and east that what the EURO is cooking. We'll see.

[BullCityWx]

January 2003 featured crashing temps at the surface and in the upper levels with increasing ratios during the event. Only .18 was measured at CLT for 8.5”.

[mackerel_sky]

I think I got like 2-3" Eastside of county had like 7-12"

[Tornadocane]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

The EPS is definitely improved this run with the 500mb wave...sharper and more southwest...but it generally follows with how the Op run is trending

I think that ridge and its orientation deserves a round of applause.  Without that crazy SOB digging more northern stream energy, I think the positively tilted trough would orient further east, dig a little less and kick things out faster.  Instead, the trough basically pushes further south and Southwest on these new runs of the ECMWF and GFS, so it takes longer for energy to round the base.  It also seems to split the energy - one to the NE and another to the SW.  I think this makes all the difference. Things appear to slow down about 12 hours, giving more time for things to go neutral and negative. 

Just for comparison so others can visualize my comments, take a look at the 12z ECMWF yesterday at 120/144 and today 96/120 500MB in the link below. Once on the page, by pressing the down arrow on your keyboard you can look at yesterdays run.  Press the up button to go back to today's run. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011212&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

[griteater]

EPS Members:

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

EPS Members:

 

Take E34 and shift everything south of the TN/GA/AL line 100 Miles NW and everything north of the SC/NC line about 100-150 east and I that’s what I go with right now 

[griteater]

EPS Mean.  Shows the meso low over Greenville, SC (kink in the isobars), characteristic of this type of setup as folks have mentioned...with sfc trough from Greenville to Myrtle Beach to the weak sfc low off the SC coast.  A diving, sharp trough out of south central Canada like the 12z Euro and GFS would give us this kind of look, and snow.

[Eric]

14 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

January 2003 featured crashing temps at the surface and in the upper levels with increasing ratios during the event. Only .18 was measured at CLT for 8.5”.

I remember that snow being so dry that you could literally blow 8" of snow off your vehicle with your breath.

[LovingGulfLows]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Take E34 and shift everything south of the TN/GA/AL line 100 Miles NW and everything north of the SC/NC line about 100-150 east and I that’s what I go with right now 

 

Would you include the Atlanta area in the "snow area" or not? 

[SnowNiner]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Take E34 and shift everything south of the TN/GA/AL line 100 Miles NW and everything north of the SC/NC line about 100-150 east and I that’s what I go with right now 

I think CLT gets some snow out of that configuration?  Regardless yes, I think too the NE gets another nice storm.  

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Would you include the Atlanta area in the "snow area" or not? 

No.  I think ATL may see a snow event from this but if they do it’s likely because the event has trended more towards just the southern disturbance going flat and OTS which would mean this is probably a non event up the coast from there 

[packfan98]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Take E34 and shift everything south of the TN/GA/AL line 100 Miles NW and everything north of the SC/NC line about 100-150 east and I that’s what I go with right now 

Sounds like it would be similar to the op with a little less on the southern edge?

[beanskip]

Two Florida panhandle threats in the same winter? That guy in south Florida only THINKS he won the lottery .....

[StormyClearweather]

The interesting stuff from GSP's AFD, with the key part highlighted:

Quote

This trough forms near the Savannah 
River Tuesday night and moves north across the area Wednesday. The 
guidance shows an H85 low forming in the lee of the mountains as 
well with quite a bit of moisture. The southerly H85 flow develops 
isentropic lift and some frontogenesis creating enough lift for 
precip to develop. There could even be some weak instability 
Wednesday helping kick off shower activity. The temps behind this 
front are very cold, H85 temps 2 standard deviations below normal on 
the GEFS mean, which would help the precip change to snow for much 
of the area. The GEFS mean shows a good chance of precip developing 
with accumulating snow, generally 2 inches or less, with this 
system. Since the GFS, GEFS mean, and the ECMWF are all in decent 
agreement, have gone with low chance PoP for the forecast area 
Wednesday. Despite the agreement, there is still quite a bit of 
uncertainty with this forecast as all these elements have to come 
together at the right time for this scenario to develop. Temps 
increase Tuesday ahead of the front before falling well below normal 
for Wednesday behind it.

 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Any analogs with similar 5h looks!?

With analogs, there are likely a ton that have ended as failed events.  But in terms of waves that have dropped down sharply out of Saskatchewan or Manitoba in successful events, here's a list (a couple already mentioned):

Jan 16, 1965: GSP 6.0, CLT 10.2, AVL 5.5, HKY 12.7, GSO 5.5, RDU 5.8

Feb 6, 1984: NC map was posted.  GSP 0.6

Feb 23, 1989: GSP 2.5, CLT 3.5, GSO 4.5, RDU 4.9.  Huge snow for NE NC (Greenville to Eliz City)

Jan 23, 2003: NC map was posted.  GSP 3.0

Jan 20, 2009: GSP T, RDU 3-7, GSO 0.5-2, CLT T, FAY 3-4, PGV 4

 

Here's the Jan 1965 storm that was big at GSP into parts of central and western NC.  Note the kink in the isobars there over GSP in the second image

[CaryWx]

We have a squall line about to move through the Triangle in the next hour.  Let's get some thunder baby!

[Solak]

RAH:

Models are coming into better alignment Tuesday into Wednesday for 
the H5 trough to develop a closed low anywhere from the Ohio Valley 
to the MidAtlantic region.  This scenario brings a much better 
chance for higher QPF over central North Carolina with a 
sufficiently cold airmass in place. For now, will introduce a chance 
for snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The further west the closed 
low forms, the greater the possibility that precipitation east and 
south of the Triangle will mix with or be all rain.  

Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s by Tue, in WAA downstream 
of the aforementioned clipper low, followed by 30s Wednesday and 
Thursday. Lows mostly in the teens to 20s, mildest Tue-Wed mornings. 

[frazdaddy]

7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

We have a squall line about to move through the Triangle in the next hour.  Let's get some thunder baby!

Pretty red cell about to pass over the house if it holds together.

[Tornadocane]

9 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Two Florida panhandle threats in the same winter? That guy in south Florida only THINKS he won the lottery .....

If you get any accumulations from this storm, I'm gonna have you pick my power ball numbers.  And I win... I'll donate snowstorm relief funds for the whole city of Tallahassee.  It will probably only run me a total of $20 bucks each year, but the whole city can pretty much handle winter events with a single bag of salt.  I'll have quadrupled the towns winter weather budget. 

[tramadoc]

With analogs, there are likely a ton that have ended as failed events.  But in terms of waves that have dropped down sharply out of Saskatchewan or Manitoba in successful events, here's a list (a couple already mentioned):
Jan 16, 1965: GSP 6.0, CLT 10.2, AVL 5.5, HKY 12.7, GSO 5.5, RDU 5.8
Feb 6, 1984: NC map was posted.  GSP 0.6
Feb 23, 1989: GSP 2.5, CLT 3.5, GSO 4.5, RDU 4.9.  Huge snow for NE NC (Greenville to Eliz City)
Jan 23, 2003: NC map was posted.  GSP 3.0
Jan 20, 2009: GSP T, RDU 3-7, GSO 0.5-2, CLT T, FAY 3-4, PGV 4
 
Here's the Jan 1965 storm that was big at GSP into parts of central and western NC.  Note the kink in the isobars there over GSP in the second image

You sure that February 1989 date is correct? There was a storm the 17-18, but nothing on the 23rd that year.

[griteater]

From 12z:

Euro/GFS/NAVGEM like our storm

UKMET/CMC/JMA don't like it

[packfan98]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

From 12z:

Euro/GFS/NAVGEM like our storm

UKMET/CMC/JMA don't like it

I don't recall the last time that the Euro and GFS agreed on a storm this far out....