mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I need to have the GFS come onboard soon, before I can go all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 ICON heaviest snowtotals runs from southern Wilkes County into Statesville and south-west of Winston-Salem to my eyes. 2-3" with pockets of more. If it trends one county north is squarely fits into climo regions as normal. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS looks to skip everything Yadkinville west. GFS snowhole right over Mount Airy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Backyard aside, better run for all. even dusting out west is better than previous runs. trends my friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Wow I am right on the border as per usual! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It looks like the GFS is slowly moving toward the rest of the guidance, step by step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Rgem is definitely the best looking model for NE GA and upstate SC. Shows around 1/4 inch of liquid falling by 7am Wednesday and it's still ripping at that time. It's amazing the differences in precip maxima's across all of the models. Each model seems to favor a different area. If I had to bet right now I would say best odds at the maxima would be in a triangle from Spartanburg to Charlotte to Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I need to have the GFS come onboard soon, before I can go all in! JC snow meter is very low (3). This is a good thing. Usually a bust when it's above a 5 this far out. Maybe the firehouse cutoff as the system moves over the mountains will allow cold are to filter in before the precip..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Snow further down into South Carolina this run, one more shift like that and I hit with both the GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Interesting that the NAM wants to go with a strengthened band just east of the mtns, then weakening as it goes into E NC, while the GFS is the opposite as it is weaker just east of the mtns and has more precip in E NC I like the idea of a decent band rolling through for both areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Das ist gud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Interesting that the NAM wants to go with a strengthened band just east of the mtns, then weakening as it goes into E NC, while the GFS is the opposite as it is weaker just east of the mtns and has more precip in E NC I like the idea of a decent band rolling through for both areas. IMO the setup at 5H would favor the band weakening as it crosses the mountains and then firing back up like the GFS as the vort begins to close off. If the amped RGEM idea is right then I could definitely see an intense band rolling through the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I wouldn't be too worried in the lee, yet, given other guidance and plus I have seen the GFS struggle with qpf amounts just east of the blue ridge all winter. Something appears off after some recent updates I think. So as the GFS continues to catch up and increase amounts near Winston, I believe it always be too low near the foothills with this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: What does it show for Atlanta? Rgem is giving the atlanta area an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 31 minutes ago, burgertime said: Found the Feb 2013 event I was thinking of. This is what it looked like at 5h on the RAP just before the event vs. NAM. That one dropped around 3 - 4 inches in places in around 2 - 3 hours. We actually had heavy snow warnings during it. <img> Yo Burger, hope you are doing well! It's a decent analog, was looking at GSP's write-up on it yesterday. I'd say this one may not be quite as dynamic though. Check out the 540 contour on the Feb '13 storm, it's down in central Bama, whereas with this week's storm, it is on the NC/VA line. So, it's not as strong aloft and it's a little more positive tilt. The NAM and RGEM do show nice precip breaking out as it rolls off the mountains though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Das ist gud Ha! Not for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, burgertime said: Yea man, if I were back home I'd be liking this setup for a good surprise. No plans at the moment but am working on something that could put me back in the US. Still too early to know. YEEEES! COME ON HOME BRO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: IMO the setup at 5H would favor the band weakening as it crosses the mountains and then firing back up like the GFS as the vort begins to close off. If the amped RGEM idea is right then I could definitely see an intense band rolling through the entire area. The hi res models are keying in on enhancement from the lee-side trough... this fades away as the system swings east, and is why it's definitely possible to see a maxima in the lee-side and then have the band dry out as it approaches eastern-NC. It's happened several times before in this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 German looks sweet, but looks weird/inaccurate. Never see uniform amounts in south-western NC like that in most storms like this and around north Georgia into the Upstate. That would of course impact regions further north-east too with lesser amounts. Will save for future reference of precip spread verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 You all started the thread without me. 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: The hi res models are keying in on enhancement from the lee-side trough... this fades away as the system swings east, and is why it's definitely possible to see a maxima in the lee-side and then have the band dry out as it approaches eastern-NC. It's happened several times before in this type of setup. Sounds depressing. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, burrel2 said: The hi res models are keying in on enhancement from the lee-side trough... this fades away as the system swings east, and is why it's definitely possible to see a maxima in the lee-side and then have the band dry out as it approaches eastern-NC. It's happened several times before in this type of setup. Yeah that's why I said if the amped up RGEM is right the foothills could see more qpf than the GFS shows. It all depends on how the cutoff evolves, where and how far north/south it sets up. There will likely be a meso-low that develops in the foothills that could mess with thermals too and how that evolves could enhance qpf for some and cause major mixing for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 FWIW, I wouldn't be surprised to see a a precip maximum wind up traveling from say Spartanburg to Myrtle beach with this setup. I can remember a similar event where a you could see the low-level swirl on radar generated from the lee side backing of winds and it traveled all the way to myrtle beach, and no models showed that evolution or that far-south precip max leading up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I may be paranoid but I'm worried about this being mostly rain in South clt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Das ist gud Nein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The GGEM looks like a solid hit for the western piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: The GGEM looks like a solid hit for the western piedmont. Yeah, it's banging on the GSP meso low idea with good precip thru the upstate and enhanced in eastern upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Can someone post the snow map from the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GGEM 2" northern foothills to 3" central/southern hills. Similar amounts Winston to Charlotte with more upstate but temps there marginal south-east of Greenville, SC on this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 We currently have a lot of good trends. However, now is a really good time to step back and look at what could go wrong. Since I'm in the triad just east of the mountains, I'll kick it off for this area. Feel free to add more areas/regions. NC Piedmont - most all models are showing between 1-5" of snow with the most being north and around the Triad area. Of all winter setups for this region, the least reliable are those relying on anything that comes over the mountains paired with redevelopment east of the mountains. Most times, the moisture coming over the mountains will dry up, so I would assume that's a zero for the band making it over the mountains. As for redevelopment, it does happen, but is the most difficult to forecast and most often busts on the wrong side. I'm hopeful for this one but still pretty skeptical at anything over an inch and really expecting more of a heavy dusting. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Also, depending on where those meso bands set up there will gaps of light to almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.