PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Maybe I'm getting the models confused but I thought the NAM had more than .5" for Wake? That seems a little anemic to me. But could definitely end up verifying. Can someone post a 2-run comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I will take this all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 the 9Z sref holds steady with a nice spread from 0-3" for RDU. Mean was around 1.25". I'd take it all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 09z SREF basically stable at 1-1.5” for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 29 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Maybe I'm getting the models confused but I thought the NAM had more than .5" for Wake? That seems a little anemic to me. But could definitely end up verifying. Can someone post a 2-run comparison? Going off the 10:1 ratio there is a little more. Problem is we will need higher precip rates to drive the temp down. So basically if precip is light, we get rain mixed snow showers. If rates are higher we get all snow (after a start of rain) with the potential of higher than 10:1 rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, ajr said: 09z SREF basically stable at 1-1.5” for RDU That matches RAH's general thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Matthew East thoughts and Video for the day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETCgwfyAVek&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: Matthew East thoughts and Video for the day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETCgwfyAVek&feature=youtu.be Mark, I like Matthew East a lot. Hope all is well Brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Gardner says Raleigh will likely get no more than a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Out to hour 24 on the 12z NAM; the initial band (west of Apps) looks healthier. Lets see how it transfers over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Gardner says Raleigh will likely get no more than a trace. When all else fails, bet the streak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 At hour 34 the band hits the VA/NC mountains down through N Alabama. Definitely a healthier look; whereas the Ga folks might get a little more accumulation if it continues to stay together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 At 39 looks about like the previous run. Just doesn't want to get into Atlanta proper. NW of town looks a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nice redevelopment by 6Z Wed on the NAM. This might be a good run. Looks more amped at 5H too, at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z NAM doesn't look bad. Could that vort be strong enough to really wring out the atmosphere and drop a few inches in a few hours? Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: 12z NAM doesn't look bad. Could that vort be strong enough to really wring out the atmosphere and drop a few inches in a few hours? Hmmm.... You might be just a little too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: You might be just a little too far east. for real though, this sort of reminds me of Feb 2013. Vort was so strong passing overhead you had heavy convective snow. Slightly different setup (that was closer to a ULL) but looking at 7h and the setup I think there's some potential for surprises especially with such cold air involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The NAM has .25-.3 qpf amounts in the Triad. .2 in Charlotte with some .3 totals NE of Charlotte, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: for real though, this sort of reminds me of Feb 2013. Vort was so strong passing overhead you had heavy convective snow. Slightly different setup (that was closer to a ULL) but looking at 7h and the setup I think there's some potential for surprises especially with such cold air involved. And whether it closes off or not is important. Should get a better handle today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Hopefully it can put out a hundredth or two in the eastern Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Better run for RDU. Looks the band still losses a little steam as it heads east but not as much as the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 According to the Kuchera...NAM has 3-4" amounts in the Triad...2" in Charlotte. Soundings off the NAM have surface temps down into the mid 20s at the height of the precip. Good run overall for the western Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 I feel like we can do at least 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Whoever says temps won't be an issue for the Upstate, and some other places, are going to be dissapointed! When your looking at .08 of qpf, can't afford to start as rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Kinda matches what the German model has been showing the last four runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The overall key to notice on the NAM is it is closer to a neutral tilt and finally closes off at 5H over VA, a little late and north but get it to close off sooner and a little further south and things would get much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Brad p latest video, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 3K NAM continues to be a bit drier for folks back this far west, which isn't really that surprising considering the setup. It is showing more precip than 0Z/6Z though. Also looks as good or better than the 16K NAM for most NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Here's the 10:1 snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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