BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Wondering if we could see an increase in euro QPF with the increase in the German model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 qpf on the UKMET looks beefed up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 UKMET looks pretty much CMC like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It looks like the American models will be late to this party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is UK a solid 1-3, 2-4 Northern NC , Southern VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I don't care who you are but when you look at the thermals on the euro you can't tell me your not slightly worried raleigh east or raleigh south into the sandhills. it is a good model and it shows warming around midnight and after that at least bares watching for a few folks. there is not a lot of moisture to go around to waste on rain to snow and then to want accumulations on a wet ground with temps near 36. again most here are cold enough just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: I don't care who you are but when you look at the thermals on the euro you can't tell me your not slightly worried raleigh east or raleigh south into the sandhills. it is a good model and it shows warming around midnight and after that at least bares watching for a few folks. there is not a lot of moisture to go around to waste on rain to snow and then to want accumulations on a wet ground with temps near 36. again most here are cold enough just saying I'm not really worried here in Wilson (east of RDU) because I don't think there is much chance of us getting anything to begin with. We have a "cold chasing moisture" situation where the moisture is marginal at best. It has victory written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm not really worried here in Wilson (east of RDU) because I don't think there is much chance of us getting anything to begin with. We have a "cold chasing moisture" situation where the moisture is marginal at best. It has victory written all over it. I don’t think this is a cold-chasing-moisture event for most. Not consistent with any ULL I’ve seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 JMA FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Crazy model hunt we are on, lol. UKMet has pretty good precip in central and eastern SC and southeast of a line from CLT to GSO in NC....but a void from ATL thru western upstate into SW VA. Upper wave doesn't close off deeply like CMC and morning Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: JMA FTW Dang, that looks pretty much incredible in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: JMA FTW NUTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yeah go with the Toyota,that's about what you're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Doesn't look like the Euro is going to be as good this run, but it looks OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 JMA basically saying the band doesn't die as it enters GA. Let's hope that's right. Would be a nice 2-3 inch snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 7:14 PM, mrdaddyman said: Nothing much has been said about it but there's going to be Boundary Layer issues in Central NC with this system. Count on it. Especially if the S/W keeps trending SW. What was that I said 2 days ago about Boundary Layer issues in Central NC? It never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 euro taking a step back pretty much ruins the night on jma potential.Will see how things float tomorrow. You’ll float too. Bare with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Current run vs. previous run on Euro. It wasn't as good at 500mb...lighter amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2"-3" is better than 0"-0". What is the probability of the JMA being in the ball park? Less than 5%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: 2"-3" is better than 0"-0". What is the probability of the JMA being in the ball park? Less than 5%? Euro run was a pretty good middle ground of all the models...I'd say it's a good first call for now. For mydaddyman, I totally get the temperature concerns...it comes with the territory...but the Euro verbatim flips it quickly to snow or is all snow in Wake county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro run was a pretty good middle ground of all the models...I'd say it's a good first call for now. For mydaddyman, I totally get the temperature concerns...it comes with the territory...but the Euro verbatim flips it quickly to snow or is all snow in Wake county. Yeah, you're right. I'm just hoping at this point to see a decent snowfall. Hope y'all friends out West get to see some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6z NAM picking up that lee enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Better run for all of us in the Carolina's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 From RAH (...nothing new as far as we're concerned): .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM Monday... ...Light Snow Possible Wednesday Morning/Afternoon... The mid/upper level flow will again become amplified across the region during this time, as a positively tilted trough will approach the area from the west, allowing an arctic cold front to move through the area Wednesday morning/afternoon. The precip with this system is expected to generally be along and behind the surface front. With low level thickness values crashing behind the front we`ll likely see precip start as a cold rain or mix of rain/snow, before changing to all snow (though we may see just rain for a majority of the time across the far SE). The latest GFS/NAM (generally a 0.10" or less liquid equivalent) continue to show less precip than the ECMWF (up to 0.20" of liquid equivalent), with the bulk of the precip expected across the northern half of the area on the GFS/NAM. Regardless it`s looking like we may see some light accumulating snowfall across the northern half of the area on Wednesday. Expect we could see up to 1 to 1.5 inches of snow generally near and north of the U.S. highway 64 corridor, with amounts ranging from a trace to near half an inch to the south. Amounts are dependent on the cold air arriving on time, which at times is a tripping point for NWP models for locations east of the mountains, thus the forecast is still a rather low confidence one. Low temps on Wednesday morning are expected to range from the mid to upper 20s NW to the lower 30s elsewhere. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the 30s, with some locations likely to see temps fall during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6Z much improved, especially for the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: 6Z much improved, especially for the Triad. It's got the band dying as it heads into eastern NC. Hopefully we can keep it going longer, or get some off shore development sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 God I hate living in GA sometimes- because of the downslope we will get less than basically everybody from TX to VA- grrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: God I hate living in GA sometimes- because of the downslope we will get less than basically everybody from TX to VA- grrrrrrr You at least have the Atlanta Falcons.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 6Z GGEM continues with the idea of closed upper low/coastal combination, much like the JMA and to some extent the ICON. Not sure these are the models you want on your side. Here's the total qpf from the 6Z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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