ragtop50 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 It does fire back up some at 72, but too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, ajr said: Weenies panicking for no reasons! Webber the voice of reason. Just one run! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 in response to why NAM shows less snow for NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, ajr said: Somebody tell the models that... I'll take my .7 inches and call it a win with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well the 0z NAM run is what it is. Can't predict anything different until next model runs really. So not sure what Webb is referring to unless just a putz 0z run this go 'round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, WakeCountyWX said: in response to why NAM shows less snow for NC... I think that's what he's talking about - it's weird.. you'd figure with a SW flow and good divergence aloft that the SFC would look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 if the shortwave doesn't slow down and turn neutral,it iisn't going to do much except for a dusting to maybe a inch if you're lucky.It's pretty simple. All that other stuff won't make a difference,all you get is a positive tilt,weak frontal passage. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, ajr said: I think that's what he's talking about - it's weird.. you'd figure with a SW flow and good divergence aloft that the SFC would look better. Looks to me that the flow, while SW, coming directly off the gulf stays over the SE coast or even out into the Atlantic. With no low pressure off the coast, there's nothing pushing the moisture back inland. Basically what I see coming over the interior of NC never really comes out of the gulf. Dry air from the SW is still dry air. I'm no expert so looking for educated guidance. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NC_Hailstorm makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 00z NAM is in good agreement with the other modeling with the exception of the Euro. This NAM run ended up slightly less deep with the trough. If you look at the Euro, the 540 height contour at 500mb gets as far south as the NC/SC border and it closes off the wave. The NAM, GFS, and CMC bring the 540 contour thru VA or PA so they're not as deep with the wave (not as strong). Those differences aloft matter. The stronger Euro depiction aloft will work, but it's on an island right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The euro as an outlier huh? How often does that work out. NAM caving to the others? Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'll take 1 inch and be happy. Got it with the last system and the kids had a ball playing in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Icon looking better compared to 18z through 54. I think we have too many models to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: The euro as an outlier huh? How often does that work out. NAM caving to the others? Oh well. If you are rooting for the outlier to be right, the Euro is not a bad one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM Still general consensus of 1” snow northern foothills, central and southern are robbed. 1” might sting with the cold that follows it will be pretty until Thursday afternoon! Lock it in! Nice event if it occurs even northern Piedmont counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Looks like this is trending better for TN, AL and west of apps, but worse for Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks like this is trending better for TN, AL and west of apps, but worse for Carolinas Are you surprised? This is the the winter where places who don’t get much snow get 2000% of annual average while those that do get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 the SREF is still decent for Raleigh. Relax, y'all....still a ways to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 There is no trend, poof, fail, we are seriously talking 0.1 difference in moisture for most in the models. May not know what to expect until it actually closes off. All models can and will easily go back and fourth over the placement of 0.1 through Wednesday. That’s the difference between dry cold nothing and 1” of snow lasting on the ground for over 24 hours. Talking for most, yes potential for more but no model is really caving or should be frowned upon over this small discrepancy a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nam still has about an inch for Charlotte. Haven't seen an inch in South Charlotte since 2014 aside from.last March which melted an hour after it ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Are you surprised? This is the the winter where places who don’t get much snow get 2000% of annual average while those that do get nothing. Atleast the ICON gives us some much needed rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Atleast the ICON gives us some much needed rain! Look to the Swiss model when forecasting 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The ICON is a really nice set up for the northern areas...looks like its trying to pop a low in SE NC late Wednesday. It drops around 3-4" in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, WarmNose said: Look to the Swiss model when forecasting 2m temps And German for moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 You all are going to love the GGEM. Looks good on the old black and white maps for much of NC...significant qpf increases over the eastern half the state especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Meanwhile, the GFS is another dumpster fire...but whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Poimen said: The ICON is a really nice set up for the northern areas...looks like its trying to pop a low in SE NC late Wednesday. It drops around 3-4" in the Triad. Icon is winter storm here. Looks of gem 0z , I've gotta check total accums, but may not be far behind. Only saw a surface frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Meanwhile, the GFS is another dumpster fire...but whatevs. ??? I just looked at the 00Z GFS and it has a nice period of snow for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS will get a clue 24 hours out. I look at euro/NAM for thermals and short range models for moisture. Works better for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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