WakeCountyWX Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: WPC looks interesting and close to my thoughts so far, I do expect more changes closer to the event: 40-50% chance 1" snow or greater from Wilkesboro to Asheboro and points north-east. mountains included. (Winter Weather Advisory) Cut off lines near Greenville, SC, Charlotte,NC and Raleigh,NC as usual with every storm. (Edge of advisory/special weather statement) Less moisture central/southern foothills into south-west NC including Asheville. (special weather statement, advisory bordering northern foothills and in the higher elevations) 4" or more warning criteria reserved for the mountains, western Wilkes and just north of Surry into Virginia. (Winter Storm Warning Chances, Slim albeit possible) Here’s the photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nam. Why is no one discussing Alabama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 21z SREF plumes for RDU - mean about the same but obviously there's an outlier. I'm guessing ARN6 is spinning up a coastal low or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Touchet said: Nam. Why is no one discussing Alabama? Check out the Tennessee Valley sub forum. That’s where the Alabama posters are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 21z SREF Mean hanging in there with QPF, no reductions this runAs far as precip type, these maps give the general idea of rain/snow mix quickly changing to snow in central and eastern NC. SREF not one to spit out snow precip type unless it's convinced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 21z SREF Mean hanging in there with QPF, no reductions this run As far as precip type, these maps give the general idea of rain/snow mix quickly changing to snow in central and eastern NC. SREF not one to spit out snow precip type unless it's convinced .15 here, close to the German and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: 21z SREF Mean hanging in there with QPF, no reductions this run As far as precip type, these maps give the general idea of rain/snow mix quickly changing to snow in central and eastern NC. SREF not one to spit out snow precip type unless it's convinced During last storm, didn't we say to not use SREF, because it was horrible ? Or was that HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: During last storm, didn't we say to not use SREF, because it was horrible ? Or was that HRRR HRRR outside of 9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: .15 here, close to the German and Euro Get those higher ratios Bryan posted and that could be 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: During last storm, didn't we say to not use SREF, because it was horrible ? Or was that HRRR Remember the rule Mack; go with the model showing the best goods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: During last storm, didn't we say to not use SREF, because it was horrible ? Or was that HRRR I'm not a fan of how the SREF is constructed, at all (normally it has widely varying results from its members)...but I'm looking at the SREF mean for general QPF trends. It held fine this run...and my comment about the precip type stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This NAM run is gonna be better! More digging, about to be a boom over NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This NAM run is gonna be better! More digging, about to be a boom over NC! Yeah, at hour 39 looks sharper on the 500mb map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This NAM run is gonna be better! More digging, about to be a boom over NC! Is there a difference between a BOOM and a boom? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yep prepare for Glory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: Is there a difference between a BOOM and a boom? TW boom = 1/2-2" for most , BOOM= 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'm thinking NAM looks quite similar to 18z. Let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: boom = 1/2-2" for most , BOOM= 3-6" From the MMS I guess - Mack Meteorological Scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 There's something off the coast of NC at the lower levels that looks potentially interesting?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 At hour 51 a little more precip survives the original band and may give the northern Ga (including Atlanta) folks some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM looks pretty meager to me through 51.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: NAM looks pretty meager to me through 51.. It's the redevelopment that we're now waiting for.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 at 54 slight less precip coming over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 lol BOOM! Or is this case WHIFF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yep dryer at 63. Still a band crosses NC but not as vigorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NAM goes poof...where's Burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: lol BOOM! Or is this case WHIFF! Wait for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PGAWx said: Wait for it... You don't want to wait for this; basically RDU gets snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Not good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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