tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, tramadoc said: So what does it mean when the ULL closes off? Means that the upper wave is stronger (deeper) and slowing down, with more upper dynamics to support rising motion and precip generation. Visually you see it as a closed contour on the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Means that the upper wave is stronger (deeper) and slowing down, with more upper dynamics to support rising motion and precip generation. Visually you see it as a closed contour on the chartsThank you for a very understandable response. So when it closes off, that means better for those of us looking for higher precip totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I still expect a lot of changes with that kiss of death look on the euro west of Greenville, SC. That could easily expand all the way to Mount Airy, NC last minute. I hope not, but don't like seeing it anywhere close to south-western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 So here we see upper levels at 500mb the final frame shows a closed contour 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Maybe EPS won't show many lee side skips this go around, then ill be excited. still rooting for charlotte to raleigh tho, they need something this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 EURO/NAM is a good look aloft (500mb) for your standard/stock moderate to significant winterstorm in NC. (3 to 5 inch type storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Can someone post the Kuchera 12z Euro Snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: EURO/NAM is a good look aloft (500mb) for your standard/stock moderate to significant winterstorm in NC. (3 to 5 inch type storm). Could be fairly widespread with that look too.....might not get all 100 counties with accumulating snow but its probably the best look for a event to do that in a while.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Thank you for a very understandable response. So when it closes off, that means better for those of us looking for higher precip totals? Most definitely in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 um just glancing at 2 meter temps on euro i would be worried about that raleigh to just east of charlotte. and i don't see where "high ratios" would be anywhere close to Piedmont Triad...correct me if I am wrong please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: um just glancing at 2 meter temps on euro i would be worried about that raleigh to just east of charlotte. and i don't see where "high ratios" would be anywhere close to Piedmont Triad...correct me if I am wrong please. well, given that the kuchera maps show higher totals than the standard 10:1 tell you all you need to know on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 maybe ending briefly as better ratios mountains/foothills but precip quickly shunted east. euro picks up on raleigh area and down east going below freezing Tuesday night then warming above freezing as the precip comes Wednesday morning. close. call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Where's the blue turd? We need to pull this sucker in so I can try out my new (to me) Land Cruiser. I didn't get it until last weekend and roads were pretty clear. This sucker is full time 4WD and I want to play. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: Is there a key for precip amounts for this map that can be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: um just glancing at 2 meter temps on euro i would be worried about that raleigh to just east of charlotte. and i don't see where "high ratios" would be anywhere close to Piedmont Triad...correct me if I am wrong please. With this type of system, temps will drop once precip starts. Many of us will/may see a start as rain/mix, but it should quickly switch over as long as rates increase like the euro depicts. This would be true all the way to the coast, especially the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: Is there a key for precip amounts for this map that can be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Upstate folks. Looks like our window of opportunity is between 3 and 6 am. This has been the timing for the past 2-3 model cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: With this type of system, temps will drop once precip starts. Many of us will/may see a start as rain/mix, but it should quickly switch over as long as rates increase like the euro depicts. This would be true all the way to the coast, especially the NE. I understand the logic, but I went through the euro run and watched the temperatures as the 6 hour round of moisture exited. Just didn't show it to my eyes unless I overlooked something. Temps really only dropped mountains/foothills, they actually went UP near Raleigh, etc. If there was more moisture than modeled for a longer duration, I could see the potential there on the back side esp west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Sref plumes for CLT now average inch. Several members at 4 inch. RDU about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The Euro is sort of on its own across parts of GA and upstate SC. Most other guidance really has nothing. The 0.07 at Atlanta is like a blizzard compared to everything else other than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 These are the soundings for Elizabeth City during the event. Can someone who is more knowledgeable please decipher this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'm not too good at this, but 18z NAM looks pretty much the same through 18 hrs. Western ridge slightly taller but I'm not seeing anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 the real world water vapor loop of the west shows a MUCH HIGHER ridge in the west and a steeper drop on the east side of that ridge.......the ridge was down around oregon a few days ago now it reaches way up into canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, tramadoc said: These are the soundings for Elizabeth City during the event. Can someone who is more knowledgeable please decipher this? Your fine there doc. All 3 lines left of the sloping 0c line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, tramadoc said: These are the soundings for Elizabeth City during the event. Can someone who is more knowledgeable please decipher this? It’s a snow sounding but I doubt those are dendrites given the lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone, probably plates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 It’s a snow sounding but I doubt those are dendrites given the lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone, probably plates.I'm going to buy some collegiate meteorology texts. I'm going to learn how to read this stuff. I've already got a BS in Fire Science. The science shouldn't be too difficult for me. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Your fine there doc. All 3 lines left of the sloping 0c lineThank you very much. I was cuing in on the dashed purple line for some reason... Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 SREF at 15z went from 0.08 to 0.15 at CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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