broken024 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Plenty of precip in ICON. Temps marginal for areas south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS is a swing and a huge miss. Hmmm. It dries up quite fast. The low spins up briefly off the coast and shoots NE throwing nothing back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 From Greg Fishel I’VE LOST ALL MY GUTS, OR HAVE I? Questions abound regarding the snow threat on Wednesday. In the old days I would take risks, and go for a single forecast solution. Right or wrong, I made a commitment. But in recent years our field has advanced to the point where we now have the ability to quantify the degree of confidence in a forecast through the use of numerical model ensembles. And any reasonably sane human being who has lived in NC for any length of time knows how little it takes for a snow threat here to literally evaporate before our eyes. So it doesn’t appear to me that I would be doing anyone a public service to sound confident when I’m not, or to guarantee snow when the list of things that could go wrong is almost always longer in NC than the list of what could go right. So here’s my list with associated probabilities: 1. Wednesday will happen. Extremely confident. 2. A second shot of cold air arrives. Extremely confident. 3. Precipitation will definitely occur. Low to moderate confidence 4. If precip occurs, it will be all snow. Low confidence 5. This could turn out to be a foot or more storm-almost guaranteed not to happen Will provide frequent updates over next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS is a swing and a huge miss. Hmmm. It dries up quite fast. The low spins up briefly off the cost and shoots NE throwing nothing back. GFS is a GREAT model, it's leading the way! SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 The German certainly went heavier with QPF across the metro this run. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s another euro uptick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 That was a really good looking NAM run. Even has dual upper level jet structure. We can roll with that look CMC just had light precip move thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, griteater said: That was a really good looking NAM run. Even has dual upper level jet structure. We can roll with that look CMC just had light precip move thru The GFS has had a dual jet structure appear 6 runs in a row at some point and doesn't respond whatsoever. Again and again and again, the GFS, provided everything else is correct, will join the party as the party is just about to start or is already underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 UKMet has precip along coastal NC/SC, but is pretty much a miss otherwise. 5h looked decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Pretty rare event if we can get the 2" of snow, the high temp of 28 Wednesday probably too warm and 15 that night may be single digits. Would be a very nice snow event that will last on the ground at least 24-36 hours as the snow hardens in the cold. Hoping it occurs where it matters most, my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z ECMWF looks to be digging the trough further south - may be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ajr said: 12z ECMWF looks to be digging the trough further south - may be good It's another good run. Totals probably not super high, but it has decent precip and it's not flying thru. Good run again at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: It's another good run. Totals probably not super high, but it has decent precip and it's not flying thru. Good run again at 500mb QPF looks roughly the same, within a hundredth or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro stepped back toward the 12z Friday run ... not all the way there but closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 So what does it mean when the ULL closes off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 At 72 there's snow from east GA to the up state to Burlington to Richmond (heading east). Will be nice to see the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Seems like a general two tenths(give or take a hundredth here or there) for a good chunk of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Still looking like high ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Anything for Wilmington on ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, broken024 said: Still looking like high ratios? Probably relatively high after the first hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 EURO nice winter weather advisory event, may not melt till Thursday for many. Could close schools down for 2 days with the timing as of right now and leftover cold still trying to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Interesting that the upper levels looked better but the precip really didn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Still fast moving. I would say a 6 or 7 hour period of snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakeCountyWX Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 What does the Kuchera Snow Map Show from Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Still fast moving. I would say a 6 or 7 hour period of snow for most. It's still quite lengthy given its association with a cold front. The ICON was even a bit longer duration. The whole post-frontal nature of this event makes it kind of unique and fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 my euro snow map looks a little different flurries Wilmington dusting to half inch Greenville, SC up to 1" Wilkesboro, Sparta, Lenoir up to 1.5" Yadkinville, Charlotte, Mount Airy up to 2-3" Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Raleigh up to 6" one county north of Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 my euro snow map looks a little different flurries Wilmington dusting to half inch Greenville, SC up to 1.2" Wilkesboro, Sparta, Lenoir up to 2" Yadkinville, Charlotte, Mount Airy up to 3.2" Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Raleigh up to 6" one county north of Raleigh East of Raleigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Interesting that the upper levels looked better but the precip really didn’t. Agree CR, I thought it looked a little better at 5h. Trough was deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 5 minutes ago, Red1976Red said: my euro snow map looks a little different flurries Wilmington dusting to half inch Greenville, SC up to 1.2" Wilkesboro, Sparta, Lenoir up to 2" Yadkinville, Charlotte, Mount Airy up to 3.2" Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Raleigh up to 6" one county north of Raleigh East of Raleigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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