Jet Stream Rider Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Upper air is quite cold with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm still trying to learn to read soundings. Doesn't this show the temp above freezing all the way up to about 500 hPa? No the 0/32 line slants up to the right ( that dash line going up from 0 at a angle ) so everything to the left of that line is below freezing, so what this shows is the entire column is below freezing except the lowest 300-400 ft.....which once the snow falls into it will cool quickly....the temp right at the surface is 35 and its 32 around 400 ft up that's easily overcome by precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Here’s the detailed map for the UK. It’s the juiciest run yet with a few .5” spots showing up. Just taking in this image from OK/TX to NC/SC...it's interesting that the strongest precip signal for that entire area is in the central/eastern Carolinas. It certainly shows the potential here for an enhanced band as the large scale trough 'bottoms out' and moves east. It's a good look for Pinehurst to GSO to RDU...it definitely supports the idea of a light snow event there. The western piedmont and upstate areas not as much, but not a shutout...interested in seeing what the Euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, griteater said: The band will slowly sag southeast and then east in front of the upper level trough that is moving SE, then east. The tricky part is where it fades/reforms etc. There is a southwesterly feed at mid and upper levels supplying moisture, but there won't be a surface low coming out of the gulf. The SW flow aloft is probably why the RGEM and UKMET have more snow from SC back through AL. The NW flow is too shallow in most spots other than classic downslope zones to really dry this up like the NAM depicts. Its unlikely with such deep SW from 900mb and up that more moisture would not be present in those locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Upper air is quite cold with this system. Yep and what tends to happen in this setup is that cold air slams into the weak warm bubble over the upstate and there is packing of the isotherms over the upstate and into the southern foothills and piedmont, which is frontogenesis which tends to lead to enhanced bands in those areas that stand longer than you would think. The models were trending a bit to this idea, but the NAM backed off of it tonight. It's a fickle setup in that area. It may take more of a consolidated, stronger 500mb vort max pass through central GA and southern SC to get that type of outcome...and may not have enough of that this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Just taking in this image from OK/TX to NC/SC...it's interesting that the strongest precip signal for that entire area is in the central/eastern Carolinas. It certainly shows the potential here for an enhanced band as the large scale trough 'bottoms out' and moves east. It's a good look for Pinehurst to GSO to RDU...it definitely supports the idea of a light snow event there. The western piedmont and upstate areas not as much, but not a shutout...interested in seeing what the Euro shows Yes and with upstream ratios approaching 25:1 vs a forecast of 13:1 you have to wonder if the cold air and high ratios may squeeze even more than the standard 10:1 ratio out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Just taking in this image from OK/TX to NC/SC...it's interesting that the strongest precip signal for that entire area is in the central/eastern Carolinas. It certainly shows the potential here for an enhanced band as the large scale trough 'bottoms out' and moves east. It's a good look for Pinehurst to GSO to RDU...it definitely supports the idea of a light snow event there. The western piedmont and upstate areas not as much, but not a shutout...interested in seeing what the Euro shows What do you mean by light snow?..... That's warning criteria heavy snowfall. The legend on the side is in inches of liquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wow.... Hoping this translates our way, but gotta feeling this means nothing for when this storm encounters the Apps. But if I was in Tennessee right now this would have me absolutely giddy. I’m already accepting that where I’m sitting is probably going to be an epic screw job. Good luck to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: What do you mean by light snow?..... That's warning criteria heavy snowfall. The legend on the side is in inches of liquid equivalent Yeah, you could be right, I'm just maybe trimming some of the model QPF and viewing it as 1-3 inches with locally enhanced areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro looks just fine so far in western areas out to hr36....it increased precip in Bama and GA and is holding nicely in western Carolinas. AT hr39, good precip in central NC and N Central SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Thanks Grit. Interested to see if it's as juicy as ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Overall, Euro has a little more precip this run looking across our forum areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro was a little less positive tilt this run with the upper trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 First image is tonight's Euro run. Second image is previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: First image is tonight's Euro run. Second image is previous run Models tonight have been really solid for my area. Hope that continues/verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The GSO to Pinehurst to RDU area in the crosshairs on both the UKMet and Euro....Packbacker and Cold Rain will screw it up somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: First image is tonight's Euro run. Second image is previous run wow. That has me at 2 inches and literally 25 miles to the east has 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: I am certainly not a pro but i wouldnt be too happy its snowing more to the west. Might mean it snows less than forecast somewhere else. It's true it doesn't necessarily mean much but it's interesting none the less that the system is over performing so far. Could be important for areas in ga where the models insist on drying. Regardless, if i was in arkansas like batesville and jonesboro i'd be thrilled right now. Comparing to earlier model runs of the gfs/nam...they are making out like bandits. earlier runs of the nam/gfs..even recent runs of the hrrr... showed only a few hundredths or hardly anything at all and yet they have been getting blasted all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro total precip in last 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-08-48-0-100# This should be genuinely fascinating to watch develop via the GOES 16 water vapor loops, and, basically all of the modes that it has! I didn't know of this College of DuPage page until about a week ago when the OSPO pages were phased out of providing current imagery including the animated loops that many of us have enjoyed watching and posting over the years. This is the best GOES 16 viewer i have found yet, although there are others! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro looks just fine so far in western areas out to hr36....it increased precip in Bama and GA and is holding nicely in western Carolinas. AT hr39, good precip in central NC and N Central SC THANK YOU Grit! Thank you again sir. You need a PRO Tag IMHO. You ALWAYS provide awesome analysis. Best, J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhart Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro total precip in last 2 runs Why is it so dry Over alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The Raleigh snow shield has set up shop in Jacksonville AR. Good news for you RAL guys as it would have to travel several hundred miles on snow covered roads to get back in time before the event starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: THANK YOU Grit! Does it show a Neutral tilt? Wish we could see a map. Thank you again sir. You need a PRO Tag IMHO. You ALWAYS provide awesome analysis. Best, J Thanks man. It doesn't get to neutral tilt, but it was a little less positive tilt this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Thanks man. It doesn't get to neutral tilt, but it was a little less positive tilt this run My apologies for asking about Maps. Shouldve known better and just scrolled down. I see now. Thanks man! Looks like our area is SANDWHICHED between two maximas. Even when we get snow, we still come out with the short end. LOL. Give me the early 2000's back brother. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I have added a snow forecast contest for our impending blizzard (with light $ reward to the winner) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12K NAM about the same as to last run....bit better in eastern NC with snow totals but nothing more than 2-3" or so for anyone....still waiting for the 3k snow map to finish but the 3K looked decent for most of NC at least....probably 2-3" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GSP morning update discussion says a advisory level event likely across the area and no warm nose, so should be all snow! Sounds good! Just need precip, maybe we can pull a Memphis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GSP morning update discussion says a advisory level event likely across the area and no warm nose, so should be all snow! Sounds good! Just need precip, maybe we can pull a Memphis! Sick band moving into Memphis now, if it holds up they get their 3-5" easy and probably closer to 6-8"....lots of crazy bust totals coming in, heck all the models had 1-3" at best for that area and they have been crushed lots of 8-12" totals NW of Memphis in the boot heel of MO and around Paducah Ky..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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