Kasper Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I’m gonna take a guess that the front is getting close to Cleveland, The SSW wind has really picked up currently sustained at 20 mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 The LP moved up the Plateau. Slowed the coldfront's progress considerably. Had it tracked up the spine of the Smokies as advertised Middle Tn wouldn't have gotten dry slotted so badly but West TN wouldn't have gotten the heavy snow they are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Clarksville is about to get some very heavy snow by the look of the radar, that slow moving tongue stretches due south down to 40 and should provide very good per hour rates. There are 30-35 dbz rates showing up and that usually translates to 2+ inches per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 My folks are reporting over 4 inches on the ground and still snowing in Paris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 My temp had dropped 3 degrees in the last 10 minutes. Front is east of me somewhere. Gonna have a long wait in the dry slot to even hope we return to snow. JKL update a few minutes ago was confident their entire forecast area sees 1-3 inches from the deformation band after 7 pm tonight. Hopefully that translates down to my area as well. I'm really hoping for a solid inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Looking at the smartway map, I-40 from the river west is a complete crap show as you'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Well I can say that’s a first drove up 75 from Cleveland to Athens, went from 57 down to 43 at the moment, 30 minute timeframe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kasper said: Well I can say that’s a first drove up 75 from Cleveland to Athens, went from 57 down to 43 at the moment, 30 minute timeframe! Front just crossed over I75 and Athens, should start dropping quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 the persistence of everything northwest wins out again, despite the late consensus that suggested the apps path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bango said: the persistence of everything northwest wins out again, despite the late consensus that suggested the apps path. This year we needed NW trends all winter and couldn't buy one, now we needed suppression and the storm tracked 150 miles NW of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: My folks are reporting over 4 inches on the ground and still snowing in Paris. Ended up with 4 inches at my place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Northern Middle Tennessee is performing a little better than recent HRRR runs. Perhaps 12Z stuff was better, but really after 15Z we should be nowcasting with radar and satellite anyway. My theory on diminishing returns on more recent HRRR runs (not the first time) is the HRRR ingests radar data, which is obviously good 90% of the time. However we saw on 12Z NWP (and reality) that the deformation zone/comma head would break up a bit before consolidating again Mid-Tenn. Midday weakening in real life and on radar ingested into the HRRR of course. Meanwhile the heart of the TROWAL is in Kentucky. The WAA from the northeast is still getting northern Mid-Tenn. Nashville southern suburbs may need a miracle though. 18Z NAM (initialized right before real-life radar decay) gives it the old college try. Separately, a little curl is noted on visible satellite in North Alabama, heading toward Chattanooga. No way! Remember, for everybody, climo snow is actually better after climo temp min 12-18 Jan. In other words, I figure we have some more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 IMBY I have fallen from 59 to 41 in 1 hour in the valley. The cold is spilling very very very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Models have been decently accurate if one disregards snow maps which are often flawed. The 18z NAM has the second slp developing in western NC. Been a tricky forecast, but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Also good to remember that models are really designed to show the most likely options. An slp west of the Apps and one east of the Apps were both shown. We likely will get both. It was pretty obvious that the models struggled with which scenario to grab hold of. The SE jog stopped at around 18z yesterday and started back NW. Still pretty awesome that we can model that with computer code. With that big hp out in front, the system was forced north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Wonder if anyone in Northern Alabama on the forum has seen any snow as being reported on radar. Almost to Huntsville area, pretty decent returns if one is under one it appears. That little section of precip down there has been pretty persistent even with drying in the comma head in between Nash and AL/TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Still raining steady at TYS airport, wind gusting to 31mph currently... cooling down too... I think the front just made it in here Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Dropped from 58 to 40 so far. NW winds at 28 gusting to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Even though it's not really showing on radar, Crossville is snowing with 1.75 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, tnwxwatcher said: Still raining steady at TYS airport, wind gusting to 31mph currently... cooling down too... I think the front just made it in here Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Even though it's not really showing on radar, Crossville is snowing with 1.75 mile visibility. That is something we have to remember too especially for this event snow doesn't always show up well on radar especially if you are some distance form the radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 50 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Northern Middle Tennessee is performing a little better than recent HRRR runs. Perhaps 12Z stuff was better, but really after 15Z we should be nowcasting with radar and satellite anyway. My theory on diminishing returns on more recent HRRR runs (not the first time) is the HRRR ingests radar data, which is obviously good 90% of the time. However we saw on 12Z NWP (and reality) that the deformation zone/comma head would break up a bit before consolidating again Mid-Tenn. Midday weakening in real life and on radar ingested into the HRRR of course. Meanwhile the heart of the TROWAL is in Kentucky. The WAA from the northeast is still getting northern Mid-Tenn. Nashville southern suburbs may need a miracle though. 18Z NAM (initialized right before real-life radar decay) gives it the old college try. Separately, a little curl is noted on visible satellite in North Alabama, heading toward Chattanooga. No way! Remember, for everybody, climo snow is actually better after climo temp min 12-18 Jan. In other words, I figure we have some more chances. Maybe more chances sooner than later. Thanks for all your efforts on the board. It's great having someone as knowledgeable as you on our forum. Fascinating system today across the mid-south. There are always going to be winners and losers when it comes to snow. Congrats to those seeing the white stuff. Hope that band holds together over middle TN and gets our White House, Portland, and Gallatin (I grew up there and have family and friends there) friends with a quick couple of inches! We never see people having disagreements about getting .2 inches of rain instead of .4 .......... just a random thought. Surprised you haven't turned your attention to the storm for Tuesday/Wednesday. The way the Euro is trending at 500, could be a decent snow for Chattanooga. I guess we need other modeling on board to get too excited, but there was a notable bump in snowy solutions on the Euro individuals. Good luck with the "curl" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlzTY Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Wonder if anyone in Northern Alabama on the forum has seen any snow as being reported on radar. Almost to Huntsville area, pretty decent returns if one is under one it appears. That little section of precip down there has been pretty persistent even with drying in the comma head in between Nash and AL/TN border. Graupel in city of Guntersville and snow flurries on lake Guntersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 degree drop in 16 mins at TYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 More from Paris:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Clarksville is close to blizzard conditions. 22 degrees, heavy snow, .25 mile vis, 25 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Friend in Clarksville has picked up about 2.5-3 inches in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just hit 32 here, south of Kingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 The cold is almost razor edge straight. Not sweeping in from NW to SE like usual. It's literally how far east/west you are. I'm at 35 and Shawn and Chattanooga are both 32 because they are a bit west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It seems the cold has came in at a very odd angle, it was colder at TYS than it was all the way up on my drive to Powell... kinda strange Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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