jburns Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 In my continuing effort to complain about the confusing severe weather warnings, I give you Kate Garner on Fox 8. When showing today's forecast that had a marginal risk over the Triad tomorrow, she explained it like this. "There is a chance of severe weather over the Triad tomorrow but the storms will only be marginally severe." Several of you commented previously that the on-air Mets would explain the confusing levels to the public. It's not looking good from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 9 hours ago, jburns said: In my continuing effort to complain about the confusing severe weather warnings, I give you Kate Garner on Fox 8. When showing today's forecast that had a marginal risk over the Triad tomorrow, she explained it like this. "There is a chance of severe weather over the Triad tomorrow but the storms will only be marginally severe." Several of you commented previously that the on-air Mets would explain the confusing levels to the public. It's not looking good from here. I agree; they should use severe light; 1/3 less severe than our regular severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Too much stratification. General T-storms, Slight Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk is a sufficient structure. You don't need marginal risk, elevated risk, enhanced risk, intense risk, required minimum risk, alternate risk, and super insane absurdly maximized risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Decent destabilization ongoing over eastern NC.....hi res models not impressed though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Updated SPC disco Mesoscale Discussion 0221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 04 2018 Areas affected...the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041727Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will form this afternoon and a few could contain enhanced gusty winds. DISCUSSION...CU fields continue to increase with daytime heating ahead of a cold front currently extending from western NJ into central NC. A few deeper showers were already organized along the front from eastern PA into NJ, with gusty winds noted along the leading edge. Scattered showers should continue to deepen across southeast VA into NC, with thunderstorms expected. While surface winds are already strong in association with the front, any thunderstorm downdrafts may augment wind speeds to near-severe levels locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldsborosnow Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Showers developing east of Raleigh and the cold front itself showing up just west of Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 D4 severe risk for VA down into FL Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the medium-range models are exhibiting fairly considerable differences from one another with eastward progression of an eastern U.S. cold front Day 4/Sunday. The differences in handling of synoptic features become even more pronounced beyond, as the next Pacific trough enters/crosses the U.S. in the Day 5-8 time frame. Despite the Day 4 variability in the models, it is apparent that an ongoing line/band of storms will progress steadily eastward across the Appalachians early in the day, and then continue east across the Atlantic Coast states. While warm-sector instability remains a substantial uncertainty -- in part due to variability in the speed of the frontal advance toward the coast -- the kinematic environment will support organized convection. As such, will introduce a 15% area extending from parts of Virginia south to Florida, with damaging wind likely to be the predominant severe risk until frontal convection moves offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 Euro still has a decent squall line coming in Sunday.Euro at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 CWASP Percentages via the 6z NAM on Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:34 AM, Cold Rain said: Too much stratification. General T-storms, Slight Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk is a sufficient structure. You don't need marginal risk, elevated risk, enhanced risk, intense risk, required minimum risk, alternate risk, and super insane absurdly maximized risk. Going off of this topic, I have seen several instances of the public struggling with the tornado watch/warning system, at least in areas like NC and MI that aren't in tornado alley. In particular, I have seen overreaction to tornado watches. Back in college, I distinctly remember one event where we had a tornado watch in effect and a severe thunderstorm barreling towards us. The campus activated the tornado warning sirens and notification system during classes and most students sheltered in place even though there was no tornado warning issued by the NWS. Someone in the administration or emergency services overreacted or didn't grasp the system. I have also had friends tell me to 'watch out for tornadoes' and refuse to travel when a tornado watch is in effect, even when the watch is for a 12 county area and isn't in effect until later that day for a very marginal and unlikely tornado outbreak. Stuff like this makes clear sense to us weather nerds, but for the average person it's a lot of information that they don't care about 95% of the time. Public education is key, but not sure on the best way to do it. Maybe NWS engagement in the classroom? Their resources are already stretched thin, but I could get behind something like that if funding were allocated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 4 hours ago, jjwxman said: CWASP Percentages via the 6z NAM on Sunday afternoon. The NAM seems to be very bullish for Sunday's event. Taken verbatim, anything that develops ahead of the squall line would certainly be capable of producing tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Current Day 3 SPC outlook: SPC AC 130703 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across the Southeast and parts of the Middle Atlantic Sunday. ...Discussion... Significant large-scale forcing is expected to spread across portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region during the day3 period as strong mid-level flow translates into this region. Latest model guidance suggest a pronounced surface front will surge into GA/FL Panhandle early in the period then into the lee of the Appalachians Sunday evening. Frontal forcing is expected to aid a significant squall line along the wind shift as it advances east, aided by mid-level height falls. Strong shear profiles will support organized updrafts but the primary storm mode should be linear due to frontal forcing. Greatest buoyancy is expected to extend as far north as southern GA into coastal SC and there is some concern that a few discrete storms could evolve ahead of the front across this region. Have focused 15% severe probs for areas of potentially more instability where isolated supercells may evolve in addition to a linear MCS. Farther north across the Middle Atlantic, low severe probs should suffice where forecast buoyancy is expected to be considerably weaker. Even so, a strongly sheared forced squall line should advance across portions of NC/VA. Damaging winds are the primary threat with this convection. ..Darrow.. 04/13/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 cool.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Day 2 outlook (Sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 This is not looking good...... Enhanced Risk over MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 9 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: This is not looking good...... Enhanced Risk over MBY. On the plus side, enhanced is even less than moderate and moderate is just, well, moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Fresh off the Press 4/15/18 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Could be a tornado spinning up on that bowing segment of the line just SE of Denton, I think we got a poster from there, Asheboro area about to get rocked that rotation is pretty tight ATM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2018 Share Posted April 22, 2018 surprise many mini low topped hooking SUPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THIS EVENING. ..DISCUSSION RECENT SINGLE-RADAR AND MRMS DATA HAVE DISPLAYED AN ORGANIZATIONAL UPTICK IN SHALLOW SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT, A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED WITH A CELL OVER CRENSHAW CO, AL, SUGGESTING SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS BEING REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. KEVX DATA DISPLAY A WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES, AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY ADEQUATE FOR TORNADOGENESIS WITH THESE ISOLATED CELLS, AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 22, 2018 Share Posted April 22, 2018 Parameters are certainly favorable for low-topped supercells with strong low-level mesos. And the offshore activity is, if anything, even more robust than what’s on land. Bit of a forecast whiff, but it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 22, 2018 Share Posted April 22, 2018 Looks to be a TDS with the warned circulation just west of Fort Walton Beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Plenty of video of a tornado corresponding with that TDS. Score one for dual-pol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 23, 2018 Share Posted April 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 3h3 hours ago Mostly small hail will be common in showers and storms today. The strongest storms may produce hail to around 1" in diameter over the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, around Rocky Mount-Wilson, Roanoke Rapids, and Tarboro - and especially northeastward into nern NC and sern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Lets see if anything develops later this afternoon... ...Central/eastern NC and far southeast VA... A shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will decay as it progresses towards the Northeast states. A weak surface cyclone near Greensboro should track east along the NC/VA border through this evening. A narrow wedge of robust insolation is underway near the surface cyclone, between the impinging cold front and widespread cloud/stratiform rain across eastern portions of NC/VA. Weak mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z soundings will limit updraft acceleration this afternoon, but the corridor of surface heating amid residual mid 60s surface dew points should yield MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Isolated to scattered storm development is likely by mid-late afternoon. J-shaped hodographs will favor strong vertical shear within the mid to upper portion of the thermodynamic profile which should support a few supercells. Isolated to widely scattered severe hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible, before weakening after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Figures..... NOUS62 KMHX 041238 FTMMHX Message Date: May 04 2018 12:43:55 The KMHX 88D will be down for maintenance until around May 13th. A team from the Radar Operation Center will be replacing critical par Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Lots of sun here now and it is crazy humid out there.....low level lapse rates should climb quickly...also 50-55knts of shear around so if we can get some storms to form in the next 2-4 hrs it could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Extremely nasty severe cell moving in towards Goldsboro....looks hooky on radar but rotation isnt that tight as of now, still has to be some pretty bad winds at the surface and hail is probably getting ping pong or better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: Extremely nasty severe cell moving in towards Goldsboro....looks hooky on radar but rotation isnt that tight as of now, still has to be some pretty bad winds at the surface and hail is probably getting ping pong or better... Storm now heading my way. We are under a "special weather statement". Looks like the storms are just under severe criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 I can attest to that. We had a two day softball tournament for my daughter at Eastern Carolina Athletic Park in Goldsboro this past weekend. Heavy rain and lightning. Didn't see any hail. Pretty much had rain all the way to Mt. Olive on the drive home. Hit another nasty cell between Williamston and Windsor. Had rain from there to Midway on NC17. After that it was clear until we got home to Elizabeth City when we got hit by what I'm guessing was what we came through earlier in Williamston. Extremely nasty severe cell moving in towards Goldsboro....looks hooky on radar but rotation isnt that tight as of now, still has to be some pretty bad winds at the surface and hail is probably getting ping pong or better... Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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