Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 ICON, NAM and some other short range models showing some potential for wind damage tomorrow. Flooding too esp west. SPC shows non-severe storms but I wouldn't rule out a tornado warning or two along with severe thunderstorm warnings Georgia into the Carolina's. Be weather aware tomorrow. The shear is going to be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 ATTN...I think areas north and east into the wedge may get hit hard too in this setup. I believe areas south and west near the upstate will be a breeding ground for organized structures to come overcome the CAD conditions. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall with damaging wind...but the potential exists for isolated tornado activity. These spin ups could have an early start in the upstate into the foothills before moving down in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We'd be talking a greater threat if it weren't for the meager instability. Looks to be another case of a low CAPE/high shear event, but to be expected for this time of year, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just thought I'd put this here... https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWakefieldVA/status/953365789930909698 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia by late tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...01Z Outlook Update... A 90-100+ kt cyclonic 500 mb jet over parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys is expected to continue nosing eastward through the central Appalachians by 12Z Tuesday morning. As it does, a fairly deep and occluding associated cyclone is forecast to migrate from parts of the Midwest into the lower Great Lakes region. ...Appalachians/Mid Atlantic Coast region... Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for at least a bit more substantive boundary layer moistening (surface dew points increasing to near 60f) off the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic into areas to the east of the central/southern Appalachians overnight. Latest model output suggests that associated destabilization will coincide with strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric warm sector wind fields to 50-70 kt, and increasing synoptic forcing for ascent. Although the thermodynamic environment overall still appears marginal, an increase in thunderstorm development seems increasingly probable across the piedmont of the Carolinas into Virginia by 09-12Z, which may be accompanied by at least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 20m20 minutes ago A cold front will pass through the area overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. A broken line of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will accompany this frontal passage, producing isolated heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of central #NCwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Jonathan Blaes @jlblaes 1m1 minute ago Increasing Threat for HSLC Severe Weather on Tuesday Morning across Portions of Virginia and North Carolina https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2018/01/23/increasing-threat-for-hslc-severe-weather-on-tuesday-morning-across-portions-of-virginia-and-north-carolina/ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPOracle Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Some spin and rotational signatures have been common since 4am in Raleigh area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Thunder at 8am here in eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimReap3r Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 TOR Warning - Southern Wayne County near Mount Olive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, GrimReap3r said: TOR Warning - Southern Wayne County near Mount Olive Yeah basically right over Mt Olive.....storm is headed for the general Kinston area...a few other small cells with rotation west of this one as well.....one just south of Southern Pines looks like it could be a problem as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 low top storms riding the warm front......wouldnt be surprised to see several more warnings voer the next 2-3 hrs....with the one south of Southern Pines being next they have put a severe thunderstorm warning on it but its got a fairly tight rotation with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 oh new storms firing closer to MBY.....reminds me of the day I had a tornado come within 200 yrds of my house back in Mar 2009.....very similar setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 New warning on that eastern cell, looks pretty legit on radar gonna pass just south of Kinston, one just west of Fayetteville now also still holding onto a pretty good rotation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Until 430 PM EST * At 356 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles west of Fort Bragg, moving east at 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Tor waning on the western cell now gonna pass over or close to Ft Bragg.....but north of the major part of Fayetteville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 wouldnt be surprised to see a few ground truths between Mt Olive and Kinston.....Fayetteville cell fell apart but two small cells are rotating the one near Newton Grove is pretty tight and could get a warning soon, same with the La Grange one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Strong couplet on cell between Newton Grove and Mt Olive....best looking one of the day I dont see a warning on it yet or my NWS is updating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Heads up for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 1h1 hour ago These radar simulations on the first graphic will give you an idea of general timing, coverage, and location of storms tonight, with an associated summary of impacts and safety/precautionary actions in the second graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 SPC mentioned a potential risk category upgrade for Monday in AL/GA/TN. "Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases and the centroid of severe coverage is better established."If the NAM verified, it could be a MDT type event. Given what the GFS/ECMWF show, though, I'd bet on an Enhanced D1 Outlook issued late tomorrow evening/Mon morning.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Well damn!!! 000 FXUS62 KFFC 180835 AFDFFCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 435 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 As vigorous shortwave moves east over TN valley, broad and unusually strong westerly flow to the south remains in place. In my experience with severe weather forecasts both here and in the southern plains, this pattern has a great deal of potential to produce atypically high instability and very strong deep vertical wind shear with supercells the dominant mode. It has been over a year since this area has seen supercell storms of this magnitude (Jan 22 2017). Large hail and a few tornadoes will be likely. Given MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 60-70kts, hail will likely be much larger than the Jan 2017 event with sizes of 2 to 3 inches likely. If there is a bright side to this story, it could be the low level shear, 0-1km bulk shear is only progged of 30-35kts. This is still quite strong and should be sufficient for a few tornadoes, but unlikely to see the larger /long-tracked tornadoes that we saw with the Jan 2017 event or other notable supercell-based tornado events and outbreaks. Interestingly, CIPS top 15 analogs based on 00Z NAM valid 00Z Tue do not contain any events in the last 10 years, so could be some analogs with lower storm report density and thus lower analog probabilities. Top analogs is Apr 3 1998 which produced widespreadhail over north GA but other dates have hit or miss coverage of reports and not too many tornado events though there area some. Other bright side of supercell events is that coverage/probability of any point seeing severe storms will be lower than with linear events. Not something you want to take a chance on however, plan accordingly. Have kept PoPs closer to guidance and perhaps lower with mainly 40-60pct Monday afternoon and evening. Will certainly keep a close watch on this and will continue with steady pace of impact briefings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Well damn!!! 000 FXUS62 KFFC 180835 AFDFFCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 435 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 As vigorous shortwave moves east over TN valley, broad and unusually strong westerly flow to the south remains in place. In my experience with severe weather forecasts both here and in the southern plains, this pattern has a great deal of potential to produce atypically high instability and very strong deep vertical wind shear with supercells the dominant mode. It has been over a year since this area has seen supercell storms of this magnitude (Jan 22 2017). Large hail and a few tornadoes will be likely. Given MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 60-70kts, hail will likely be much larger than the Jan 2017 event with sizes of 2 to 3 inches likely. If there is a bright side to this story, it could be the low level shear, 0-1km bulk shear is only progged of 30-35kts. This is still quite strong and should be sufficient for a few tornadoes, but unlikely to see the larger /long-tracked tornadoes that we saw with the Jan 2017 event or other notable supercell-based tornado events and outbreaks. Interestingly, CIPS top 15 analogs based on 00Z NAM valid 00Z Tue do not contain any events in the last 10 years, so could be some analogs with lower storm report density and thus lower analog probabilities. Top analogs is Apr 3 1998 which produced widespreadhail over north GA but other dates have hit or miss coverage of reports and not too many tornado events though there area some. Other bright side of supercell events is that coverage/probability of any point seeing severe storms will be lower than with linear events. Not something you want to take a chance on however, plan accordingly. Have kept PoPs closer to guidance and perhaps lower with mainly 40-60pct Monday afternoon and evening. Will certainly keep a close watch on this and will continue with steady pace of impact briefings. Welcome to Dixie Alley man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 For 3/19-3/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 17 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Florida Far southeast Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected through this afternoon, capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Jacksonville FL to 35 miles west southwest of Avon Park FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 18 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Coastal South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous storms are expected to develop across the coastal plain this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Some of these should be severe with a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Waycross GA to 55 miles north northeast of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Couple of nasty tor warned cells in south central Florida...if they hold up to the coast it will hit Ft Pierce and Port St Lucie which are pretty populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like there is a pretty potent looking storm offshore between Fort Myers and Naples. It would probably be coming onshore around the Naples area or perhaps south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 NWS Newport/MoreheadVerified account @NWSMoreheadCity 15m15 minutes ago There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for most of our inland areas tomorrow with the primary threat being strong wind gusts. Storms should begin to impact the region starting around midday. #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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