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Upstate/Eastern New York


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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

geeez, I've never heard anyone say that.  From a tree damage standpoint alone I hope I never see an ice storm again the rest of my life.  It's heartbreaking.  

Disagree. Ice storms are needed to destroy bad/weak trees just like fires are good for the environment. It's a way of nature to cleanse itself. 

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I can't believe anyone who has lived through a severe ice storm would ever wish for it to happen again. Maybe BuffaloWeather wasn't up here in 91? Or 2003. I wasn't here for either, but did get to experience a similar event on Long Island in 1978 or 79 (think it was 79). It destroyed the power grid and we had no electricity for 7 or so days (may have been as many as 10, I don't recall exactly). No backup heat source (no wood stove, no gas heater), no hot water. I was 17 at the time but it still sucked.

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I've seen more people die in car accidents related to snow then any other event in Buffalo. Even a close friend. Snow is just as destructive. I like Hurricanes and Tornadoes as well. I don't control them, but they are awesome and would love to witness them in person. You guys are all soft, the majority of weather is destructive.

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16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

:facepalm:

?

Forest fires are a natural and necessary part of the ecosystem. Even healthy forests contain dead trees and decaying plant matter; when a fire turns them to ashes, nutrients return to the soil instead of remaining captive in old vegetation. Fires being good are a scientific fact, ice storms are debatable. 

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3 minutes ago, coh said:

I can't believe anyone who has lived through a severe ice storm would ever wish for it to happen again. Maybe BuffaloWeather wasn't up here in 91? Or 2003. I wasn't here for either, but did get to experience a similar event on Long Island in 1978 or 79 (think it was 79). It destroyed the power grid and we had no electricity for 7 or so days (may have been as many as 10, I don't recall exactly). No backup heat source (no wood stove, no gas heater), no hot water. I was 17 at the time but it still sucked.

I lost electricity for 16 days in 2006 in the October storm. We all sat by the fire as a family and played board games. It was awesome! That was far more destructive than any ice storm ever was in WNY.

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1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Snowstorms don’t destroy the electrical grid. This is a picture from the great north country ice storm of January 1998. It took 3weeks for some areas to get power restored

5BB0A3EA-D345-40F7-A216-EB6D2B9890C1.thumb.jpeg.a57312029f260e464a83fac2f728737f.jpeg

And a snowstorm caused Buffalo to lose 70% of its trees in totality and more power lines than any ice storm in Buffalos history. Whats the difference?

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

And a snowstorm caused Buffalo to lose 70% of its trees in totality and more power lines than any ice storm in Buffalos history. Whats the difference?

That was a freak occurrence. How often does heavy snow fall while trees still have full canopies of leaves?

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

And a snowstorm caused Buffalo to lose 70% of its trees in totality and more power lines than any ice storm in Buffalos history. Whats the difference?

You're just upset and lashing out bc BUF is likely not getting a foot of snow and it's been another screw job season. We feel your pain. 

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9 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Major ice storms are 9 times out of 10 more damaging than major snow storms. Debate ended! Let's get back to this storm! :)

Snow related car accidents cause more injuries and deaths then any ice storm. It's actually not even close. So no more wishing for snow if I can't wish for ice! Infrastructure is more important than lives? Debate ended! 

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These are 10/1 ratios and we all know it'll prollty start around 8/1 then transition over to 14/1 as an average for the event as a whole.

12Z

ecmwf_tsnow_syracuse_11.thumb.png.00d74910792ce86ed6d7270c87c7e98a.png

Kuchera

5a59120d5bb79_ecmwf_tsnow_KU_syracuse_11(1).thumb.png.1d6e3960d0559b5c59747bd6203fe012.png

Soundings for 06Z and 12Z from the GFS for KFZY

gfs_2018011212_018_43.25--76.25.png

12Z

gfs_2018011212_024_43.25--76.25.png

Very nice soundings so alls we have to do now is just wait and see how the forecast plays out.  If this system continues to move East as it traverses the area then points to our East may cash in a bit better than first anticipated. Lots of surprises left for this one I think.  I have't taken a look at CSI banding possibilities which I may do but there doesn't appear to be enough instability, Frontogenetic forcing for banding but perhaps within the deformation band that forms.

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The NAM went from way East with practically nothing in WNY then at 12Z wenty back West and gave them 14" and now its so far West that Ksyr mixes. lol.  Throw that POS model in the trash simple as that.  Its a horrific model.  The event is underway and it still can't nail the damn thing to within 50 miles.  I'll stick with the Euro as it hasn't wavered for 4 straight runbs now.

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