vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Anyone have thoughts/data on the faster-than-expected frontal passage and LP placement & strength vs. what models forecasted at this point? Current surface map shows front on BUF doorstep and 1001mb LP over northern AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Buf: 4.0” Roc: 10” SYR: 17” BGM: 5.0” Going with Euro/NAM combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Changeover soon. I love how this went from Chicago snowstorm to Syracuse snowstorm in 3-4 days. Models are trending worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Changeover soon. I love how this went from Chicago snowstorm to Syracuse snowstorm in 3-4 days. Models are trending worse. Clearly they need more sampling capability in the Pacific... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Front just went through here about 15-20 minutes ago, temp has dropped from 58 to 42 in that time. Mist and fog in the air, all snow gone from ground except in a few protected areas. This is going to be a very interesting (and possibly frustrating) storm to watch from this point as there is a lot more variability in the models than I expected at this stage (the SREFs are ridiculous). I think the safe bet for ROC is about 11-12". BUF maybe 6-7". Good luck to everyone, enjoy the storm...whatever it brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, vortmax said: Anyone have thoughts/data on the faster-than-expected frontal passage and LP placement & strength vs. what models forecasted at this point? Current surface map shows front on BUF doorstep and 1001mb LP over northern AL. Faster =weaker and east. You don’t want all that cold air crashing into a LP. I’m watching meso stuff now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Well, if it rolls out the way HRRR is saying, Roc gets a big one, Niagara Falls gets screwed, Buf inbetween And SE Syracuse mix. It’s trend is good. Roc region has 40 miles of leeway. Which looks ok now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Well, if it rolls out the way HRRR is saying, Roc gets a big one, Niagara Falls gets screwed, Buf inbetween And SE Syracuse mix. It’s trend is good. Roc region has 40 miles of leeway. Which looks ok now. 994mb LP seems to be deeper than most forecasted, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Why not... BUF - 3" (glorified fropa) Roch - 6" (sorry, I see the precip shield trucking through) Syr - 8" (congrats!) I'm just not seeing the kind of wrapped up storm or tight circulation that sends precip back over the area and leads to big lake enhanced totals. That's usually our money for higher end accumulations, at least in WNY. Hope I'm wrong, but if anyone tops a foot I'll be surprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Why not... BUF - 3" (glorified fropa) Roch - 6" (sorry, I see the precip shield trucking through) Syr - 8" (congrats!) I'm just not seeing the kind of wrapped up storm or tight circulation that sends precip back over the area and leads to big lake enhanced totals. That's usually our money for higher end accumulations, at least in WNY. Hope I'm wrong, but if anyone tops a foot I'll be surprised... Yeah very little lake enhancement now compared to a few days ago. No vertical tilt with great moisture, just a overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I don't know guys, there is a lot of moisture to be had still and with a stronger LP progged (according to the HRRR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 16z hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Might as well copy and paste the 0z euro and call it the 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: Might as well copy and paste the 0z euro and call it the 12z lol Shoot us a look? Anyone have NavGem snowfall for 12z? It looked amped compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It does look pretty much the same BUT threw few extra inches to kbuf (12”) And Kroc (17”) Plus a couple extra for Syracuse (21”) ..Stayed the same imby at 20”, this is using kuchera ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I don't know where all these negative posts are coming from because this thing hasn't even begun to gets its act together, lol. I realize ppl who were getting jacked aren't anymore, but a 6-10" snowfall is not a bad event especially after all our snowcover got wiped out in 1.5 days, so I guess I'll take whatever I can get before our real thaw comes, which should last a couple weeks as opposed to 2 days, but that's just me. I do know one thing, this is not a frontal passage like some are alluding to, but I guess you can call it whatever you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Estimated about 1 1/3”-1 1/2” of liquid with plummeting temps, sounds good to me..( ksyr-Kroc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Temps along the lake in NE Monroe cty. just dropped from 58 to 38 last 45 mins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Temps along the lake in NE Monroe cty. just dropped from 58 to 38 last 45 mins... I was actually running errands on lunch and saw this happen real time. Left at 1215 and it was 62. Then at 1pm it was 42. Pretty sharp drop for sure. There was a very clear delineation in the clouds too. Pretty cool to watch it plow past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 My scientific call: BUF - 1.0 ROC - 2.0 BGM - 0.5 SYR - 3.0 Tug Hill - 36.0 (steals EVERYONE'S snow this time!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'll tell you what, if this is a frontal passage then I'll take a frontal passage twice a week please for the rest of the season, lol! Obviously I wouldn't take this map verbatim cause these take into account ratios right from the get and some of this will infact be sleet but how much is the question. my guess's KBUF = 8" no enhancement KROC= 13" synoptic - 3-5" LE on the back end for a total of 17" KSYR= 15" no enhancement KWRT= 12" no enhancement KITH= 6+ with a 1/4" of ice and poerhaps some LE from Ontario and Cayuga KBGM=10" cause of elevation If the change over happens much quicker than advertised because of the lagging mid level CF then these totals will rise but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'll tell you what, if this is a frontal passage then I'll take a frontal passage twice a week please for the rest of the season, lol Total agreement!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Kbuf 8.5” kroc 15” ksyr 13” Kbgm(airport,elevation) 6.5” kfzy 15.1” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Kbuf 8.5” kroc 15” ksyr 13” Kbgm(airport,elevation) 6.5” kfzy 15.1” Agree with you and Freak. Still outrageously mild in BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Syracuse hit at least 61 at airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Nmm and arw have somewhat of a lull after the passage of the cold front , we may not have to deal with to much IP/ZR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Give me an ice storm over 6" of snow. Zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Give me an ice storm over 6" of snow. Zzz Give me a whole January of 60F over an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Its 61 in KSYR and 27 in Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, WNash said: Give me a whole January of 60F over an ice storm I'd definitely a whole month of 60 over 6" snowstorm too. ice storms are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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