BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yes they also have gotten screwed in the lake effect department as well and it may be more than 5-6 years, it may be since the October storm in 2006. They got fringed and came in way lower than areas just a mile or two south during Dec. 2010, and Nov. 2014. Just a super frusterating time to live from downtown to the airport north. Hopefully this will change soon but obviously with the lake iced over at least 50% and more pretty brutal cold coming in the next week the chances for this year are just about all but gone. This will likley end as another year of below to we’ll below average snowfall at KBUF unless we get some real synoptic storms going which seems like it’s impossible to get. I’ll go out on a limb and say KBUF sees less than 70” on the season while KROC and KSYR finish over 100”... Yeah I think Erie has a shot at 200", which would be cool to see. Just shows you how much potential Erie has before it freezes, Buffalo has 200"+ potential. It's crazy Binghamton almost doubled Buffalos snow last season and they don't even get Lake effect, or its very rare to get. Just goes to show you the donut hole Toronto to Buffalo has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: Final guesses: KBUF - 4" KROC - 9" KSYR- 15" KBGM - 8" KBUF is not getting 4 inches...stop it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 For the “sake” of this board, rgem would be a nice compromise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 KBUF - 3" KROC - 11" KSYR- 14" KBGM - 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: What a wicked CF slicing its wat to the East! The cold front is really cooking east...seems faster than progged...couldn't be fast enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, vortmax said: The cold front is cooking east...seems faster than progged... Erie just crashed and Ripley is down to 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just imagine if the mid-level cold front didn't lag behind the surface cold front, we would for sure see much more snow, as that's the reason why we transition into a more of a freezing rain / ice pellets scenario versus an all snow scenario and it lasts for hours.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Buffalo’s temperature is about to fall like a rock. It’s already down to 32 in London, Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Remember one thing though, it took 3 days to decimate our snow cover but it'll only take 12 hours to replenish it!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFSWhy the GFS really pounds USSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Why the GFS really pounds USSent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkWow, not whySent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Not too far west though. KBUF will still be lucky to see 4-5”. You go just east though to Wyoming county and that could easily be doubled or tripled. You go to Youngstown and you may still see grass lmao. I'm in Erie PA for my middle daughter's gymnastics meet and there is still plenty of snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'm in Erie PA for my middle daughter's gymnastics meet and there is still plenty of snow around. And the temp is down to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Time to focus on meso. HRRR looking good for most. Glad I slept through 6z NAM. This east trend has been a thing. I guess if it’s stronger we end up W if it’s weak we end up east. Still like Roc for big numbers. Might struggle to get the 18” I’ve been talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanleyjenkins Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm a little late! KBUF - 5.5" KROC - 7.3" KSYR- 16.1" KBGM - 6.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 A nice run on the high Rez Canadian (6z) at 10-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Down in BGM...sun breaking out...64 degrees! Gotta time my departure back to SYR...figuring on road by 4 or 5pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Was working in Lakeview and it was about 60 then literally all of the sudden skies darkened and you could literally watch a heavy fog and mist roll in from over the lake and temp dropped about 15 degrees in under 10 minutes, just incredible ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I gotta get one in here. KBUF - 6 KROC - 8 KSYR - 11 KBGM - 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Was working in Lakeview and it was about 60 then literally all of the sudden skies darkened and you could literally watch a heavy fog and mist roll in from over the lake and temp dropped about 15 degrees in under 10 minutes, just incredible ! Down to 36 in Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: A nice run on the high Rez Canadian (6z) at 10-1.. I'm skeptical about assuming 10:1.....I think during the heaviest precip, (at least in CNY/WNY) the ratios will be closer to 12 or 14:1....which means probably a 15-25% upping of the above totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 KBUF - 7.6 KROC - 15.2 KSYR - 12.5 KBGM - 4.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The ROC SREF’s are a disaster. Anywhere from 2”-3 feet. Lol. It’s tough living on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: The ROC SREF’s are a disaster. Anywhere from 2”-3 feet. Lol. It’s tough living on the edge. Pretty amazing the spread this close to the show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Pretty neat watching the cold front on the hrrr swing through the area hr by hr, I noticed temps jump up a couple degrees right before the cold front hits, pumping up those southerly winds? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The ROC SREF’s are a disaster. Anywhere from 2”-3 feet. Lol. It’s tough living on the edge. I feel very uncomfortable about this storm track. The western edge of the precip shield only needs to miss by 50 miles and we are in nuisance snow land. Way to close a call to sit and feel happy. The precip shield will also be moving very fast with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 By 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I feel very uncomfortable about this storm track. The western edge of the precip shield only needs to miss by 50 miles and we are in nuisance snow land. Way to close a call to sit and feel happy. The precip shield will also be moving very fast with this one. I feel ya Delta. It might be more like 25 miles. Somewhere from Roc to Syr is the zone. Any further mvmt east and this thing sails away. I still feel good. My super high confidence has shrugged to an average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 IAG: 6.5” (lake help) BUF: 5” (sorry) ROC: 13” (had to dump my 18”) Syr: 12” Wolcott: 15” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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