wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Going to be a now casting situation especially west of here, no matter if it’s eastern side of Guidance or west, Oswego county is in the middle of it.. 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We were always the eastern outliers, now we're ground zero, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Dam, Can I change my 4 to 8 to 8 to 16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, phoenixny said: Dam, Can I change my 4 to 8 to 8 to 16? no, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Final guesses: KBUF - 4" KROC - 9" KSYR- 15" KBGM - 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 U can add the 6z ICON to the east crew, LP goes over nj instead of eastern PA..Looks like about 25-30 mm of snow imby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Here's the system taking shape down across the SE states. It looks real good from a reflectivity standpoint with an extending CF, and an emerging warm front to its NE where a Warm sector should take shape as it moves up the coast. Sounding for KFZY for 06Z Saturday, and with it showing extremely heavy snow, with winds sustained at 25 mph with gusts to 35 which will create havoc on the roads with blowing and drifting sn. The temp also plummets to the lower teens to upper single digits making the dendrites perfect for accumulating snows. The snow growth region is close to the whole saturated column which also bisects the highest humidity and Omega values. to me this all spells a 10-18hr of heavy heavy snows starting tonight around 00Z lasting through 18Z Saturday easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: U can add the 6z ICON to the east crew, LP goes over nj instead of eastern PA..Looks like about 25-30 mm of snow imby.. well show it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Its really not often we get such a rewarding track for CNY, but this seems like one of those times that we just might cash in, big time. Perhaps with it heading a bit further East now, maybe the winds will back just enough to get us in on some LE including areas to our West along the lake shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Precip is a little messy looking, worried more about the track, we see more precipitation around these 2 frames.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The upper level trough driving this system will become negatively tilted this evening when all precipitation will be snow across the forecast area. Vertical motion will be enhanced as the entrance region of a upper level jet moves overhead. Widespread snow is expected across the forecast area tonight into Saturday morning. A elongated surface low will continue to deepen along the cold front from DC to NYC by midnight tonight. Models are depicting a deformation zone forming across western/central NY resulting in a period of heavy accumulating snow. Dry northwest flow will cause a sharp cut-off on the northwest side of this system. This will result in a sharp cut-off for snow totals in the vicinity of far western NY including the City of Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Storm total snowfall amounts will range from 6-12 inches across far Western NY to 8-16 inches across Rochester metro and western Finger Lakes to the North Country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm in northern Otsego county and as Han Solo said "I got a bad feeling about this." I need this thing to keep bumping east to get me out of the maximum icing zone. Gas cans filled, generator ready but really don't want to be dealing with that during a major winter storm with plunging temps and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Man, we're alot of rain. Too bad it wasn't snow! Thoughts on the eastward shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 erhaps just the NAM being the NAM but we'll find out soon enough as its nowcast time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Before we flip the switch back to winter, am I the only one amazed at how a 2 day warm up can erase what was built up by a historical 14+ day stretch of winter weather? As a snowmobiler, yesterday and today has/will destroy most of what was built up over the past few weeks. The deep frost may have a lasting impact but that’s it except for Tug Hill and higher elevations of the Adirondacks. I’m not necessarily whining, but from kind of an outside semi-objective perspective it is truly amazing to me how quickly almost any snowpack in upstate NY can be erased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Before we flip the switch back to winter, am I the only one amazed at how a 2 day warm up can erase what was built up by a historical 14+ day stretch of winter weather? As a snowmobiler, yesterday and today has/will destroy most of what was built up over the past few weeks. The deep frost may have a lasting impact but that’s it except for Tug Hill and higher elevations of the Adirondacks. I’m not necessarily whining, but from kind of an outside semi-objective perspective it is truly amazing to me how quickly almost any snowpack in upstate NY can be erased. It's very impressive. Anytime you get a nice southerly breeze with this warmth and high dewpoints, snow pack vanishes. Redfield dropped over a foot in the past 24 hours, and they will drop another foot or two today I would imagine with all the rain and continued warmth/winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Poured like a bleep this morning, but now in a semi dry slot with some light rain, fog machine out in full force which is all it takes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 What a wicked CF slicing its wat to the East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 46 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Before we flip the switch back to winter, am I the only one amazed at how a 2 day warm up can erase what was built up by a historical 14+ day stretch of winter weather? As a snowmobiler, yesterday and today has/will destroy most of what was built up over the past few weeks. The deep frost may have a lasting impact but that’s it except for Tug Hill and higher elevations of the Adirondacks. I’m not necessarily whining, but from kind of an outside semi-objective perspective it is truly amazing to me how quickly almost any snowpack in upstate NY can be erased. This always amazes me too. Good reminder that at our latitude we truly live between 2 different worlds. We can have the arctic descend on us from the north while just as easily have tropical breezes sweep over us from the Gulf. Can and does flip on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: U can add the 6z ICON to the east crew, LP goes over nj instead of eastern PA..Looks like about 25-30 mm of snow imby.. I thought ICON was programmed to take all slp's over the BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 So yea the nam Just sucks lol kbgm from 2 feet(6z) to 7”(12z) looks better for you guys out west though but you obviously can’t trust the model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Looks like a non event as usual for WNY in synoptic events, enjoy Eastern folks. Buffalo to Toronto has been a snow hole for the last 3 years. Both places averaging 60% of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks like a non event as usual for WNY in synoptic events, enjoy Eastern folks. Buffalo to Toronto has been a snow hole for the last 3 years. Both places averaging 60% of normal. We’re just in a bad spot for synoptic, with the way lows usually go west of the Apps which leave us on the warm side and we get rain or they go east which usually brings the heaviest precip to our east and we get fringed. It sure does suck and I’m really interested to see what our new 30 year snowfall average will be in 2020 after we’ve gotten pretty screwed the last decade besides a couple years we were a little above average. KBUF may land up averaging less than 90” a season once the new averages come out after this decade is over. Meanwhile I bet KBOS and KORH see a 10” increase in their average annual snowfall, what a decade it’s been for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, winter_rules said: Before we flip the switch back to winter, am I the only one amazed at how a 2 day warm up can erase what was built up by a historical 14+ day stretch of winter weather? As a snowmobiler, yesterday and today has/will destroy most of what was built up over the past few weeks. The deep frost may have a lasting impact but that’s it except for Tug Hill and higher elevations of the Adirondacks. I’m not necessarily whining, but from kind of an outside semi-objective perspective it is truly amazing to me how quickly almost any snowpack in upstate NY can be erased. High dews, high winds, 40 hours above 50 degs, 1-2" of rain will do it quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So yea the nam Just sucks lol kbgm from 2 feet(6z) to 7”(12z) looks better for you guys out west though but you obviously can’t trust the model lol Not too far west though. KBUF will still be lucky to see 4-5”. You go just east though to Wyoming county and that could easily be doubled or tripled. You go to Youngstown and you may still see grass lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: We’re just in a bad spot for synoptic, with the way lows usually go west of the Apps which leave us on the warm side and we get rain or they go east which usually brings the heaviest precip to our east and we get fringed. It sure does suck and I’m really interested to see what our new 30 year snowfall average will be in 2020 after we’ve gotten pretty screwed the last decade besides a couple years we were a little above average. KBUF may land up averaging less than 90” a season once the new averages come out after this decade is over. Meanwhile I bet KBOS and KORH see a 10” increase in their average annual snowfall, what a decade it’s been for them... I agree but Buffalo has not had one lake event above 20" in 5-6 years? I've had 10+ here. Just brutal luck for a SW flow. Yeah the entire New England forum is way above average for the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I agree but Buffalo has not had one lake event above 20" in 5-6 years? I've had 10+ here. Yes they also have gotten screwed in the lake effect department as well and it may be more than 5-6 years, it may be since the October storm in 2006. They got fringed and came in way lower than areas just a mile or two south during Dec. 2010, and Nov. 2014. Just a super frusterating time to live from downtown to the airport north. Hopefully this will change soon but obviously with the lake iced over at least 50% and more pretty brutal cold coming in the next week the chances for this year are just about all but gone. This will likley end as another year of below to we’ll below average snowfall at KBUF unless we get some real synoptic storms going which seems like it’s impossible to get. I’ll go out on a limb and say KBUF sees less than 70” on the season while KROC and KSYR finish over 100”... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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