coh Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I got anywhere from 8-10" on the ground, roughly equally distributed. So gonna call it 9". Not bad, slightly under performed my expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Snow still holding on here albeit light, at least several more inches have fallen since I got home this morning, probably somewhere in the 12”-14” range, we’ll see when the storm totals come out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Pretty cool we can have active storm threads now. When the transition was made from Eastern to American we lost quite a few posters. Makes it easier to track synoptic storms that occurred in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Thanks Wolfe ,It worked ,Albany Area snow hole.....maybe one plowable storm of 4” Xmas eve,that’s it ,other than just saw dust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Albany Area snow hole!,my poor sled wants a field trip to Buffalo ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bigfoot said: Thanks Wolfe ,It worked ,Albany Area snow hole.....maybe one plowable storm of 4” Xmas eve,that’s it ,other than just saw dust... Ah, I feel for you. Spent about 8 years in Albany (grad school) and it was mostly a snow desert. I remember several storms that "should" have been great (and were, pretty much all around us) but we got skunked by downsloping winds. Of course, we left right before the 93 superstorm so missed the big payoff for all those bad years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Thanks,yes 93 again is still the dream..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 About 9" here. Much better than I thought for BUF area. Looks like no big jackpots, mostly 6-12" range region-wide. Very solid storm. Interesting trend we've had going back to first part of December...we build a nice snowpack, thaw hits, and snow almost immediately moves back in. I'm thinking about pre-Christmas Eve and now this. Hopefully trend continues for next couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I took a quick trip to Lake Placid for a few days last week for some x-country skiing and hiking. Weather was great...couple snowy days and one blue-bird sky day. Pre-thaw, lower elevations had 1-2' base, higher elevations up to 4'. Few pics...#1 - breaking trail through 3' base, 4-5' drifts on final 0.4-mile section of Wright Peak trail; #2 - in the clouds and snow in alpine zone of exposed Wright Peak (<50' vis, dicey staying on cairn path); #3 - view of Wright Peak (foreground) and Algonquin (background) from Mt. Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: I took a quick trip to Lake Placid for a few days last week for some x-country skiing and hiking. Weather was great...couple snowy days and one blue-bird sky day. Pre-thaw, lower elevations had 1-2' base, higher elevations up to 4'. Few pics...#1 - breaking trail through 3' base, 4-5' drifts on final 0.4-mile section of Wright Peak trail; #2 - in the clouds and snow in alpine zone of exposed Wright Peak (<50' vis, dicey staying on cairn path); #3 - view of Wright Peak (foreground) and Algonquin (background) from Mt. Joe. Lake Placid/Saranac Lake are probably my favorite place in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6.5 here at KBGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just measured about 8 spots throughout the front and back yard and I got an average of 13" so not bad all things considered. If we didn't lose 2-3" from sleet I'd of hit 15" easy but the sleet held on longer than expected. Still light snow on a North wind but that should come to an end here soon. Some nice drifts as well as I'm on a 3 acre lot with no trees at all so its extremely hard to get accurate measurements. This may of been the last synoptic system for quite some time as the thaw approaches for the remainder of January but we may sneak out a couple LE events but I won't bet on it, I do think however, after this upcoming thaw, which should only last a total of about 2 weeks, we should head back into harsh Winter conditions through Feb and especially March as Weak Nina's are notorious for wicked March's. This is basically what I'm seeing from the teleconnections, MJO progression and the indices so it doesn't look all that bad looking ahead at least from what I have looked at and researched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, coh said: Ah, I feel for you. Spent about 8 years in Albany (grad school) and it was mostly a snow desert. I remember several storms that "should" have been great (and were, pretty much all around us) but we got skunked by downsloping winds. Of course, we left right before the 93 superstorm so missed the big payoff for all those bad years! The Xmas 24" followed by 20" about 8 days later for the Cap District was very memorable... back to back blockbusters in 02/03. Spent 3 winters there in early 00's...only 1 lousy winter, 01/02, which was a no show winter for everyone. Absurdly, after a top 10 mild winter in 01/02, we did have a couple inches of snow on May 18th that year as I recall, wrecking my freshly planted garden. You kind of remember things like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 wasn't 2010 snowmageddon in DC or are my dates screwed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: wasn't 2010 snowmageddon in DC or are my dates screwed up? The original one was 2010. I think they had another one in 2016 based on a quick Google search. Actually there seem to be Snowmageddon search hits for just about every year it seems. Media hysteria at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Syrmax said: The original one was 2010. I think they had another one in 2016 based on a quick Google search. Actually there seem to be Snowmageddon search hits for just about every year it seems. Media hysteria at its best. no doubt. Did KBOX issue early BW for Mon-Tues yet, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Well, every storm has its lessons to be learned. This one was pretty well forecasted by NWP...and by KBGM and KBUF. No big forecast busts that I saw, which considering the snow gradient cut right through upstate NY, and tons of other distractions with flooding rains and hydro concerns is a pretty good job by the pros. Not sure which model performed the best. Frankly, I looked at so many different models and runs that's it's all a blur at this point. As an amateur, main lesson I take away from this Storm is to take the Clown maps with a big grain of salt. Especially when mixed phases of precipitation are present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: no doubt. Did KBOX issue early BW for Mon-Tues yet, lol? They are waiting for the 00Z Tropic Thunder model run tonight before hoisting any flags in the overnight package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I will say this though about the NE weenies. They are for sure thee most hard core weenies out there as far as regions are concerned then a close second is the MA. I guess its because they see perhaps a total of 5-8 events on avg/season while we get triple that between LES and synoptic clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Well, every storm has its lessons to be learned. This one was pretty well forecasted by NWP...and by KBGM and KBUF. No big forecast busts that I saw, which considering the snow gradient cut right through upstate NY, and tons of other distractions with flooding rains and hydro concerns is a pretty good job by the pros. Not sure which model performed the best. Frankly, I looked at so many different models and runs that's it's all a blur at this point. As an amateur, main lesson I take away from this Storm is to take the Clown maps with a big grain of salt. Especially when mixed phases of precipitation are present. I agree. The models (especially the GFS I believe, though most of the model runs from the past week have blurred together as you say) latched onto the basic track and precip distribution pretty early and mostly stuck with it, save for the expected run to run variations. I kept expecting a more significant adjustment as the wave energy came ashore but it never really happened. It was interesting to watch the variations that occurred in the forecasted snowfall totals (clown maps) from run to run and model to model, as well as the reactions of people on the forum. I rarely pay as much attention to these kinds of details as I did for this storm, preferring to look at the big picture. It gave me a headache at times and reminded me why I didn't pursue a career in forecasting even though I used to be pretty good at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: About 9" here. Much better than I thought for BUF area. Looks like no big jackpots, mostly 6-12" range region-wide. Very solid storm. Interesting trend we've had going back to first part of December...we build a nice snowpack, thaw hits, and snow almost immediately moves back in. I'm thinking about pre-Christmas Eve and now this. Hopefully trend continues for next couple months. I went out to snowblow, and there was definitely more than I originally thought. Probably about 8.5” - right on forecast. Definately a denser snow than most that we have around here, if ratios had been more in line with those cold snap snows, we would have had more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Looks like KBUF got lowest total in Erie County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, Syrmax said: As an amateur, main lesson I take away from this Storm is to take the Clown maps with a big grain of salt. Especially when mixed phases of precipitation are present. For the most part, this sub forum puts clown maps into perspective. We don’t have many of the weenies who get into a frenzy at a clown map and are mad when it doesn’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Under normal circumstances clown maps wouldn’t be needed, I’d much rather focus on precipitation amounts and let the nws figure out ratios..Due to the rain part of this event it was hard to decipher when the switch over would occur hence the clown maps, we all know to take them with a grain of salt due to them “including sleet “.. Kuchera does very bad with lake effect, trust me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Under normal circumstances clown maps wouldn’t be needed, I’d much rather focus on precipitation amounts and let the nws figure out ratios..Due to the rain part of this event it was hard to decipher when the switch over would occur hence the clown maps, we all know to take them with a grain of salt due to them “including sleet “.. Kuchera does very bad with lake effect, trust me lol It wasn't too long ago when we didn't have Clown map algo's and you had to actually do some looking at mid levels and such to figure things out. Some of the short range model (HRRR etc) Clown maps seemed to have stayed away from the more outrageous totals we saw on the EC and US models right prior to storm onset. And yeah, I think sleet and rain mix screwed with clown map output more than normal in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, WNash said: For the most part, this sub forum puts clown maps into perspective. We don’t have many of the weenies who get into a frenzy at a clown map and are mad when it doesn’t verify. What do you mean? I was furious this didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Under normal circumstances clown maps wouldn’t be needed, I’d much rather focus on precipitation amounts and let the nws figure out ratios..Due to the rain part of this event it was hard to decipher when the switch over would occur hence the clown maps, we all know to take them with a grain of salt due to them “including sleet “.. Kuchera does very bad with lake effect, trust me lol What is Kucheras ratio approximately? 1:20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12” in Pittsford. I think ROC airport ended with about the same. Little bit of underperformer. My final call was for 13” butI had been fairly confident (until early yesterday) we’d be getting a solid 18”. The GFS deserves an award. I too am tired of these kuchera maps. They screw with my head and I end up believing them. Ratios were real close to 10:1. Sleet mixed in throughout the event. Probably a function of the upper and mid levels being so drastically displaced west as opposed to surface LP. Thanks for all the banter guys! Hope we can do it again real soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Measured 9" here in Phoenix. Not bad, but was a bit disappointed. On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Congrats to all of you! It could be worse if you love snow. You could live in VA :)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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