BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Impressive. That side of the lake freezes first too, means most of the lake is now open. Should begin to start freezing over again next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think it may just be the wind smashing the dendrites into bits, which is leading to efficient compacting. The 4 inches I have is dry but quite dense. Same consistency here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 38 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: RAP still shows SYR with another .9”. KROC with another .5”. So we good. That's 3-6" for SYR, which puts us at 6-9" total, about what i suspected. Always divide NWP liquid qpf by 2 or 3 when it comes to converting to snowfall, unless you can justify absurdly high ratio conditions. Whenever I deviate from this rule I get disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Well I was wrong about this storm. 7.2" total so far, still moderate snow falling. 4" between 5-10. 3.2" between 10 and 1:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Another forecast checklist rule that I have which worked well for this storm is the Joe Bastadi / Innacuweather hype factor. Rule: The potential for an interior (upstate) synoptic 6+" snowfall is inversely proportional to their hype, as only storms that significantly impact densely populated (subscriber) regions (I-95 corridor) get hyperventilation. In this case, no hype and...voila! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Wolfie drew this on paint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Re conversation about storm track, I think there were two centers and I was commenting on the first one, another poster thought I meant the second one which is further south. Otherwise if you read my post I don't think there are different snowfall amounts forecast from what others here were discussing. Just looking at the current map, the leading center is in southern NH by now, and the trailing one is north of BAL and east of CXY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Looking ahead...next week's storm (KBOX BW threat) was just blown away by the EC...aligning w/ GEM and GFS. So dead zone for a while...nothing much for next 7-10 days. Maybe we can wring out some LES and a Clipper while everyone else stares at brown terrain. After that, who knows...only the Shadow knows. (IMO we Torch Feb and March with a cool early April that offers as much snow threat as Feb and March combined...IOW enjoy the next 2 weeks of winter cuz its pretty much game over after the Groundhog sniffs his azzhole). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2018 Author Share Posted January 13, 2018 Wny in battle between dry air to NW and storm pushing in from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Starting to see signs of Enhancement off of Lake Ontario. The Thruway zone is gonna snow like hell from here to 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wny in battle between dry air to NW and storm pushing in from the south. This was always represented by the models. Which is why poor Niagara County always lost out on the big stuff. You can see the the darker greens moving almost due north. Everyone NE of Buff gets a second load. And the south shore gets love from Ontario now. Take what you got and double it. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 This storm is coming together nicely for the I-90 corridor with anywhere between Buffalo and Elmira longitude to the northeast cashing in on 8-15" with iso to 18" as you work up to Syracuse. Someone always jacks. Deformation axis will really get rolling near Finger Lakes to SYR, so thinking that's where any jack will occur from pure synoptic's. Good to see you guys get a synoptic event for once. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Has to be a good 5” or so on the ground, snow up to my ankles throughout the parking lot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 No more “hard” flakes, pure fluff, not huge but acceptable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Still plenty of precipitation to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: No more “hard” flakes, pure fluff, not huge but acceptable.. You're in great shape where you're located. I can see you easily eclipsing a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3k nam From about 2am-11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 A few more hours of snow left just north of SYR. About 3-4" on ground, rice snow. One interesting thing is that the snow hole filled in. I am in what's left of it now and still snowing steady, albeit mediocre accumulation continues with poor dendrites. Definately not worth staying up for, at least here. There are only so many March 2017 snowstorms to go around and this ain't one of them, at least here. One of these days i'll have to fire up BUFKIT again to get a better handle on mid levels and snow growth rather than divide NWP qpf by 2 or 3, although that usually works good enough for synoptic systems here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: A few more hours of snow left just north of SYR. About 3-4" on ground, rice snow. One interesting thing is that the snow hole filled in. I am in what's left of it now and still snowing steady, albeit mediocre accumulation continues with poor dendrites. Definately not worth staying up for, at least here. There are only so many March 2017 snowstorms to go around and this ain't one of them, at least here. One of theze days i'll have to fire up BUFKIT again to get a better handle on mid levels and snow growth again. We'll still end up with around a foot. The best mid level forcing is about to begin, and it will snow hard through 9am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: We'll still end up with around a foot. The best mid level forcing is about to begin, and it will snow hard through 9am or so. Maybe. There's something wrong with this storm vs various NWP and I don't know what it is. Actually, I think it's the clown map phenomena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Maybe. There's something wrong with this storm vs various NWP and I don't know what it is. Actually, I think it's the clown map phenomena. The mix of IP with windy conditions can reap havoc on flake size at the IP/snow interface, so some of the clown maps of 21" were more than a stretch. That said, a 6 hour period of 1.5"/hr. will put us above the "bust" threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: The mix of IP with windy conditions can reap havoc on flake size at the IP/snow interface, so some of the clown maps of 21" were more than a stretch. That said, a 6 hour period of 1.5"/hr. will put us above the "bust" threshold. If we get that...agreed. Not a horrid storm I suppose, just not what I expected. I figured we'd lose 2" due to IP. I'd have to investigate further to understand how to identify sh!t snow production vs available moisture and other factors. I was on it years ago with lake effect but we get so few synoptic storms that are worth a crap that I lost some interest. And most decent LES goes to the Tug so who really cares. Too easy to rip and read parameterized graphical output. Comes with old age and being an electrical engineer with other computer modeling interests at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It’s snowing as hard as it has ever snowed for this thing in Rochester. Just ripping. I was listening for thunder. Sitting at 8-9”. Coming down at 1.5” hr. Ripping brah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Really coming down right now, adding up quickly, still plenty of precipitation streaming from the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ripping here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just eyeballing looks between 6-8" here. Not horrible, a bit more then I expected for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Absolutely ripping right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Huge flakes right now!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Easily 2” an hr stuff, flakes are so big I can see their shadow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Looks like a good 12-14" here in Hannibal in my front porch, drifted pretty good on my driveway also. Gonna be a fun day cleaning this mess up uggg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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