rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Bad reporting. Roc airport measurements and reporting are highly questionable during snowstorms. I have called them on it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 And finally reporting moderate snow. Even though its heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I’m not sure why I’d be questioned. I’m maybe the most conservative member. Most events I get think I’m being a downer. Anyway. This storm is awesome. I love it. I’ve been sitting at my folks just watching it amp up. What a great track. Most of us see a foot or so of real snow! Love it. Verification is important. I’ll never over sell what I’m seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I can vouch for you Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Bit over 2" here. Rice snow consistency. And i'm on a jackpot location per various NWP. This has 6-8" written all over it vice 15" or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 KFzy same way, they will report light snow all night and we will pick up 2 feet lol Measured 3.5” as of 1215 am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I mentioned it earlier and that was my concern. It took a long time for KROC to goto real snow and we still toy with sleet. I wonder if maybe the 700 and 900 level lows are a bit further west than anticipated. I can tell you that here in KROC we are just on the good side. I’d be. Concerned if the Syracuse area gets a bit lower ratios due to this. Just a thought. I hope we all cash in. As an upside, we have Seidel and Timmer in town. Which one should i kidnap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Hopefully that dry slot fills in before making it up here, I think that slug of moisture to the south is what the euro showed 3/4” in 6hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, tim123 said: I can vouch for you Dave. Hey, thanks Tim. I can always count on you! We have super heavy snow in Pittsford. I bet you have the same in Walworth? Who know what the airport is doing? Its gonna take another call from Kevin et al to sort it out. LOL. I love the radar in CLE, it shows the potential for enhancement in about 3-9 hr period. Plus, Pittsburgh radar still shows lots of moisture moving north. As a down side, we need to watch the dry air moving in from the west. You can see the radar drying up over the IAG peninsula? What do you think? I’m still good with Rochester ending up with 13”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 This one's a wrap for SYR. As usual, take the KBGM low end 90% map, which has us at 6". Whomever makes those is a genius I'm telling you. Enjoy it out in the ROC and hopefully BUF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I wouldn’t give up yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 In a few min I’ll check on the euro to see if anything changed which I doubt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Gone over to snow now here at KBGM. Timing wise this seems to be about on schedule to perhaps bit early. Hopefully stays SN rest of the way out. Models have been showing crazy gradient whole time here with river valley and Route 17 corridor perhaps only getting 1-2" while towns in northern half of Broome may get close to 6-8". Intellicast seems to be suggesting this gradient might already be setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 RAP still shows SYR with another .9”. KROC with another .5”. So we good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: In a few min I’ll check on the euro to see if anything changed which I doubt.. You know we appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hey, thanks Tim. I can always count on you! We have super heavy snow in Pittsford. I bet you have the same in Walworth? Who know what the airport is doing? Its gonna take another call from Kevin et al to sort it out. LOL. I love the radar in CLE, it shows the potential for enhancement in about 3-9 hr period. Plus, Pittsburgh radar still shows lots of moisture moving north. As a down side, we need to watch the dry air moving in from the west. You can see the radar drying up over the IAG peninsula? What do you think? I’m still good with Rochester ending up with 13”. I’ve got the the west side on lock. I live 2 miles from the airport and measure in 3 places. I can tell you we didn’t get 8.9 inches of lake effect in that 3 day storm last weekend either. Anyway, should I run out back and take a measurement for ya’ll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: In a few min I’ll check on the euro to see if anything changed which I doubt.. Doubt a change...Just too many variables and not enough granularity for a global to predict snowfall. Precip, yes, on a broad scale. When it gets to snow growth and cloud microphysics, they lose the plot especially when you do some generic assumptions to pop out a snowfall based on a ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Gonna sign off for the night. Just got in from a quick measurement walk. 4.5" as of 1 am. All my measurements were between 4 and 5". Snowing pretty heavily probably 1"/hr. Have fun everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I’ve got the the west side on lock. I live 2 miles from the airport and measure in 3 places. I can tell you we didn’t get 8.9 inches of lake effect in that 3 day storm last weekend either. Anyway, should I run out back and take a measurement for ya’ll? Sure Delta. Take a look. I’d bet you got at least 5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Total snow 0z euro..This is on 1.2”-1.3” liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1/2”-3/4” liquid between 6z-12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Total snow 0z euro..This is on 1.2”-1.3” liquid.. Been pretty consistent. As usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Sure Delta. Take a look. I’d bet you got at least 5”. Holy crap is it nasty out. Conditions have really gone down hill since I came in around 11. Very windy and heavy snow....Just blasting. I can't find any place with more than 4" and my snowboard is taking heavy wind from the Northerly and only reads 2"... so I averaged a bunch of spots in the front and back yard. Anyway, 4 inches is fine, radar to the south is way juicier than I had expected. These storms that tap the GOMEX always impress me after weeks of Clippers and garbage. As Dave mentioned, the Cleveland radar is a good sign of things to come, but those bands are also seeded from Huron. That said, who knew the lake could melt up that nicely in such a short thaw? I think 8-12 still looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Impressively bad dendrite growth near here. And dry slot coming. Maybe akin to the stuff we saw during the arctic lake effect. This is where you need to look at the mid levels to predict snow growth zones. An experienced forecaster might have picked up on this. Most of us don't have that skill or just rip and read. Since I'm lazy these days, I just divide NWP snowfall output by 2 or 3 and it's usually close. I see 18" on GooFuS or Euro and thats 6-9" in reality, usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Syrmax said: Impressively bad dendrite growth near here. Maybe akin to the stuff we saw during the arctic lake effect. This is where you need to look at the mid levels to predict snow growth zones. An experienced forecaster might have picked up on this. Most of us don't have that skill or just rip and read. Since I'm lazy these days, I just divide NWP snowfall output by 2 or 3 and it's usually close. I think it may just be the wind smashing the dendrites into bits, which is leading to efficient compacting. The 4 inches I have is dry but quite dense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Eh. 9” on a wind driven storm is still good. I still like a foot or so for Rochester through just West of Syracuse. My visibility is down to maybe 1/8 of a mile. Way more windy than i expected. Had this occurred on a weekday morning the NWS migh be scrambling to upgrade KROC to a different sort of warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think it may just be the wind smashing the dendrites into bits, which is leading to efficient compacting. The 4 inches I have is dry but quite dense. Could be...that's another variable....wind effect. It's breezy here and nasty out. Just not major snowstorm worthy, in terms of net snowfall. We just don't get the moisture and dendrite growth combined to overcome various mitigating factors here for most snowstorms, as opposed to coastal areas. Another lie exposed is that being near the transition zone produces higher snowfall. Thats just not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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