BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 WSW out for most of the area. Models continue to change at every run. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 NAM: NAM 3KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 New NAM has me a bit more optimistic about decent accums this way. It has mostly just been the Euro to this point showing anything decent. If Euro still holds ground I see BGM converting all watches to warnings with exception of possibly Otsego Co. Even if accums fall slightly short of the letter of law for warning level snowfall in spots within the current watch alignment, this looks to be a fairly high impact event due to combination of antecedent rainfall washing off the roads and setting the stage for a flash freeze all the same time while receiving a moderate dose of IP/ZR topped with at least several inches of snow. The roads on Saturday AM will undoubtedly be an absolute mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 HPC: 4+ 8+ 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Noticed on 3km nam red on precip map for snow. What kinda rates is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: Noticed on 3km nam red on precip map for snow. What kinda rates is that. Not sure, have never seen that for synoptic lol. Probably 2-3" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Cause that goes right up western finger lakes into roc. Thunder possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Here was the 18z rgem, all with similar looks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 0z models will have absorbed all necessary info. Kinda odd- the Roc mets and media seem hohum about this. I think it’s gonna be huge. Can’t ask for more more than that NAM Run. Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I think we may see some thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: I think we may see some thundersnow Tim, Did you notice how Kevin Williams was kinda downplaying the snow? (I assume you watched his feed.) Unlike him. Part of it is continuity of his earlier forecast. I see a shot at two feet; making it one of bigger ones in recent history. Who knows, he’s usually the best.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yes I did. I commented yesterday to him about shot at a top 10 snowfall. He never replied back. He is good. And did mention roc getting over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This storm reminds me of 1999 March. Narrow stripe 25 miles wide of 2 feet. Then 18 inches 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 If I remember got like a inch of rain the night before. Had Thunder snow with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I remember it well. It was stronger (988?) and took a track closer (I think up through Binghamton). This one has a lot of precipitation to work with which overcomes some limiting factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Think buffalo got 8 inches less in Syracuse. That was a snow bomb. Mos fell in 6 hours. From like 6am to noon. Remember driving to work with thunder and lightning with huge parachute flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 So far for kfzy nam 11”, 3k nam 14”-16” And rgem 16”-18..So 12”-18” “may be” a good call by the nws.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Sref plumes aveage 12 in roc. With a good cluster in the 15 to 20 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So far for kfzy nam 11”, 3k nam 14”-16” And rgem 16”-18..So 12”-18” “may be” a good call by the nws.. I see less than a foot falling for us, but that's just me. this event lasts a total of 6 - 8hrs, so basically we have to bank on it snowing 2"/hr for the storm as a whole and that's NOT happening, here anyway. I will say 5-8" for me, which is still warning criteria, but I just don't see these crazy totals some of the guidance is spitting out. Syracuse South a bit more cause of the hills and just cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS Is weaker and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 00Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I do know there is a ton of rain headed this way that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I think closer to the lake could get some extra enhancement, only time will tell..Euro was nearly identical the last 2 runs, I’ll probably stick with it .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 GEM went a tad NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 28 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I see less than a foot falling for us, but that's just me. this event lasts a total of 6 - 8hrs, so basically we have to bank on it snowing 2"/hr for the storm as a whole and that's NOT happening, here anyway. I will say 5-8" for me, which is still warning criteria, but I just don't see these crazy totals some of the guidance is spitting out. Syracuse South a bit more cause of the hills and just cause. Balls. 8-14" for us. Book it. Not sure what KBGM is waiting for to upgrade to Warnings here. 7" seems like a lock at least for their N&W counties. Maybe waiting for the 00Z Tropic Thunder model to weigh in? I think it still shows a Blizzard for KBOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We'll suffice to say their all pretty much in the slot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM went a tad NW Pretty solid group of runs. Not much left to change. GFS internals look fine to me- the snowfall just looks a bit anemic (I can’t see changes from 12-18z ). Now we wait for what will probably be the last useable Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: We'll suffice to say their all pretty much in the slot! It could be worse. You could be in the NE thread mongering up a winter wonderland of ZR/IP to SN from the Ugandan model whilst only hours away from 55 and R+ conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ukmet looks good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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