ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Flash freezes need specific ingredients in place (low level RH around 100%...preferably precip falling while sfc temps go from above freezing to below fairly quickly)...but they are present on Friday morning. That could change obviously. But as of now, the Euro def shows a legit flash freeze...mixed precip changing to snow with a crash in temps well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: be watching Mon Tuesday the 5th and 6th, has promise I like the possibilities ahead with pna spikes. We dont need an epo on roids. Most know the usual caveats apply but I am bullish this month is our snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Flash freezes need specific ingredients in place (low level RH around 100%...preferably precip falling while sfc temps go from above freezing to below fairly quickly)...but they are present on Friday morning. That could change obviously. But as of now, the Euro def shows a legit flash freeze...mixed precip changing to snow with a crash in temps well below freezing. Great explanation. Sure, I believe it could happen near the shore with this one. We'll see. It's just that I haven't seen one in my area in quite a while...you hear from time to time that it may happen, but here it fails more than it happens...guess that's what I meant. Thanks for explaining it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'm sitting at about half my season average so it's time to start snowing if this season wants good grades on it's WNE report card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm sitting at about half my season average so it's time to start snowing if this season wants good grades on it's WNE report card. We’ve stalled out since the first week of Jan. Sucks to lose a few weeks but we can not only make up ground but get way ahead with a good run here. Gotta believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’ve stalled out since the first week of Jan. Sucks to lose a few weeks but we can not only make up ground but get way ahead with a good run here. Gotta believe. I hear of a possible "Friday event", is the "sunday"/Monday not gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, 512high said: I hear of a possible "Friday event", is the "sunday"/Monday not gone? Both are still on the table. Nothing big though, at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm sitting at about half my season average so it's time to start snowing if this season wants good grades on it's WNE report card. At my place the cumulative snowfall is split almost evenly between Oct-Jan and Feb-May (current split is 44"/45".) Of course, March is quasi-winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 weeklies anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 20 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: weeklies anyone? Look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 That's is a very active run on the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's is a very active run on the OP GFS. Seem like later this week we start rolling again. I would bet once we get a good 3-6 incher then we will start to get regular events and probably a couple of 8+ers. I'm up for winter part 2. Maybe a 4-6 week period? By this date I'm either "bring it all" or if not "early spring." It has started to get quite muddy and that either needs to freeze or dry up. Freeze being the preferred option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Seem like later this week we start rolling again. I would bet once we get a good 3-6 incher then we will start to get regular events and probably a couple of 8+ers. I'm up for winter part 2. Maybe a 4-6 week period? By this date I'm either "bring it all" or if not "early spring." It has started to get quite muddy and that either needs to freeze or dry up. Freeze being the preferred option. If the modeling and ensembles are right, Its going to be a very wintry next 15 days+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 They have a torch for morch which I’ll happily accept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They have a torch for morch which I’ll happily accept. What qualifies as a torch though? 50s or 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They have a torch for morch which I’ll happily accept. You can finally air dry those soiled undies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 MJO progression says winter until at minimum mid March, I would go out on a limb and say 3 rd week of March is still deep winter based on what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: MJO progression says winter until at minimum mid March, I would go out on a limb and say 3 rd week of March is still deep winter based on what I see. Ginx, in your crystal ball, hope you see snow loaded as well, after past 24 hrs watching those model runs, we need a reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can finally air dry those soiled undies. Morch is welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 It’s a good thing I only only trust the weeklies out to week 4. I like the first two weeks of March for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’ve stalled out since the first week of Jan. Sucks to lose a few weeks but we can not only make up ground but get way ahead with a good run here. Gotta believe. It will pick up, just not as quickly as some had hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: MJO progression says winter until at minimum mid March, I would go out on a limb and say 3 rd week of March is still deep winter based on what I see. Agree...at least through March 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 hours ago, dryslot said: If the modeling and ensembles are right, Its going to be a very wintry next 15 days+ I hope so. I’ve got about 200 miles on the sled and want more! I should have trailered north this weekend as decent trails weren’t that far away. Have to remind myself to get it when I can and not wait for “perfect” conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Scooter right, flash freeze friday definately a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 We take the 0z GFS and GGEM foot plus coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Still skeptical this soon...hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Gonna need these potential chances coming up to pan out....entering last month....although I am entertaining myself with the idea of that elusive winter month called March......that would be a first here since we moved here August 2004.....we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Ice, there have been some wintry March’s since you’ve moved here. March of 15 was snowy. Last March we had a blizzard warning. March of 13 was snowy. March of 08 I remember a good storm. Sure there’s been some warm ones too...it happens. But to say there hasn’t been wintry March’s just isn’t accurate in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Euro ensemble really backing off the cold over the last few runs. Stout ridge off the coast and not as robust of a ridge out west. Looks active but that’s not really cold verbatim. We’ll see if it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Does it still snow Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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