dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Models have been delaying the start time to more of a Monday night Tues deal as has been mentioned by some on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This isn't a rain to snow scenario i don't think except maybe Cape/Islands where BL initially might be an issue. Euro is slower, doesn't start until Monday night. Would it be paste to Pow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would it be paste to Pow? Prob not...esp inland. Maybe the first hour or two would be 30-31? It's pretty cold aloft, so it's not going to be classic paste even if the temp was 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The later start time has the colder air in place so that helps out the coastal dwellers plus its overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice little hook back W on the Euro there. Would help Eastern areas. I think it was Will who called the hook yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 GGEM bounced NW too ...as I'm sure the natives have restlessly already stated... Two points of contention for me remain: ... data sampling over the Pac versus the known denser, less interpolated initialization schemes over the actual continent of N/A ... the fast flow combined with what 'appears' to be a premature convective spin up (much more so in GFS oper. runs as of late) that squirts off the SE Coast like a 14 and a half year old's lucky encounter with a neighbor milf This low is rocketing in the fast flow, as is probably over evolved to begin with... and may end up being phantasm more so than physical when push comes to shove. That feature, as does... really strips away the baroclinicity. In fact, I'd even argue these NW adjusting solution still in themselves may also be latching onto a premature circulation ..borne more from numerical instability in that veritable powder keg that will exist along and off the EC come that time. All these solution in relative measure could stand to cut back on that early detonator and relay more so on the deep layer forcing associated with the trailing amplitude in the mid levels and so forth. Both above factors will benefit from model runs ... probably beginning tonight and probably more so tomorrow. Also, suspect the non-hyrdostatic models will come in very useful do to the instense thermal gradient that a nascent baroclinic field that drifting blithely over the g-string waters will set up when the air immediately on the western side has some fresh polar air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Only Euro has that late start. These always seem to start earlier than thought 2 -3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The Euro evolution is really nothing like the UKIE. It basically develops the system in an entirely different manner. It’s almost like a half Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 Kevin's funny... ...it's not good enough that there is a bona fide favorable trend for something to abolish monotony on Mon-Wed... it HAS to start somehow ...someway, before the guidance wants it too or it's some kind of disappointment. there used to be this social commentary circulating around society about the gen-xer's and their belief in what was called back then, "instant gratification" ... the motif was, no sense of virtue in working for anything - immediately upon conception of desire... desire must be fulfilled. Hell, i'm surprised this next system doesn't start by sundown today - right...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Kevin's funny... ...it's not good enough that there is a bona fide favorable trend for something to abolish monotony on Mon-Wed... it HAS to start somehow ...someway, before the guidance wants it too or it's some kind of disappointment. there used to be this social commentary circulating around society about the gen-xer's and their belief in what was called back then, "instant gratification" ... the motif was, no sense of virtue in working for anything - immediately upon conception of desire... desire must be fulfilled. Hell, i'm surprised this next system doesn't start by sundown today - right...? Euro was slowest . Maybe it’s right. Everything else is Mon into the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The west crowd needs more shifts, about 1-2” atm. Need the seasonal trends to continue, will try my best to will it again. I’m on it folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 Wow... look at that Euro end run ... That is a classic EPO slosh event there, hemispheric is the scope and scale too.. It's figuratively like it just sans all other perturbations and or permutation in the flow, and just opted to do a singular act of tipping the entire quatra-hemispheric arc bath-tub instead. What's also funny is that both the GFS and GGEM, and JMA for that matter... and a lot of the GEFs individual members, they all carry some sort of significant wave/event through the east over next weekend; yet this run? literally NADA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Still pretty far east on the EPS. Better than 00z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Still pretty far east on the EPS. Better than 00z though. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Definitely a big jump NW for the queens on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wow... look at that Euro end run ... That is a classic EPO slosh event there, hemispheric is scope and scale too.. It's figuratively like it just sans all perturbations and or permutation in the flow, and just tipped the bath-tub instead. What's also funny is that both the GFS and GGEM, and JMA for that matter... and a lot of the GEFs individual members, they all carry some sort of significant wave/event through the east over next weekend; yet this run? literally NADA Euro does give a 2/3 inch additional south of the Pike from WAA frontal but nothing close to resembling any other modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Yep. Just now, CoastalWx said: Still pretty far east on the EPS. Better than 00z though. Congrats Eastern areas. Sorry MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Congrats Eastern areas. Sorry MPM He'll meh his way to 8" in a magic band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He'll meh his way to 8" in a magic band. All jokes asside, You think this has potential in the mid level magic show to produce 6-10” ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The west crowd needs more shifts, about 1-2” atm. Need the seasonal trends to continue, will try my best to will it again. I’m on it folks. It's worked so far this year, keep it going. I need a few more miles than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 man.. i love the potential with that thing... whether it's realized or not... I know the ICON is what it is over at TT but, just letting that loop you get see it just alllllmost gets it done but slips the phase... If that thing were ever to latched onto with say a deeper amplitude ...that's a wicked bomb there. Probably be low total ferocity ... wind and 10" white out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: It's worked so far this year, keep it going. I need a few more miles than you do. I assume we are on the same ne to sw trajectory so its about the same mileage wise. If I get, so do you. Still have time this weekend to trend it enough that the cape rains = we snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Really???? Literally there is at least 7 weeks left of winter. A week of January left, 4 weeks of Feb, and even if you only wanted to count the first two weeks of March as viable, that gives you 7 weeks...which is also very close to two months. And...And you/we are not even in the snowiest time of the year climatologically speaking yet. So that statement is just flat inaccurate. Not really bro. Last 2 weeks of December, all of January, and first 2 weeks of February really make up "true" winter. Sure you can have a nice storm end of February, but it melts in like a week so who cares. We missed out on the heart of winter which sucks. I would have rather we kept the cold through January, and then thaw in February....it's all about consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Definitely a big jump NW for the queens on the EPS. The OP has been atrocious on QPF for the last two events: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Nice to see correction East with 5 H anomalies with EPS, starting to lose that complete flattened PNA, fully expect that trend to continue. GEFS at the end of the run was some ideal setup too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Not really bro. Last 2 weeks of December, all of January, and first 2 weeks of February really make up "true" winter. Sure you can have a nice storm end of February, but it melts in like a week so who cares. We missed out on the heart of winter which sucks. I would have rather we kept the cold through January, and then thaw in February....it's all about consistency. How did this all work out for you in 2013 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup and nope Before you go patting yourself on the back...remember you're also the donkey who said a few days ago it was "impossible to snow before Feb 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Straight up called him a donk. Them fighting words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, tunafish said: Before you go patting yourself on the back...remember you're also the donkey who said a few days ago it was "impossible to snow before Feb 1". Why so angry son? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Man that SE ridge is precarious on the EPS. Gonna be some angry weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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