HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS mean still looks better than the OP...so there's def some members in there that are decent. Uncertainty still plentiful on this one. A little more tucked in than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Keeping 's dreams alive, one post at a time. I feel like some previous events have been given up on too early this season...or "meh'd" to death at 96-108 hours in a general perception of more certainty than actually existed...this one doesn't look awesome right now, but there is definitely an envelope of solutions on the ensembles that give a pretty good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel like some previous events have been given up on too early this season...or "meh'd" to death at 96-108 hours in a general perception of more certainty than actually existed...this one doesn't look awesome right now, but there is definitely an envelope of solutions on the ensembles that give a pretty good event. Definitely saw that with the 1/4 event earlier this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel like some previous events have been given up on too early this season...or "meh'd" to death at 96-108 hours in a general perception of more certainty than actually existed...this one doesn't look awesome right now, but there is definitely an envelope of solutions on the ensembles that give a pretty good event. I'm on siesta until 72hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Definitely saw that with the 1/4 event earlier this month. I don’t know if anyone believes in seasonal trend or anything, as each system is different... but that has kind of been the theme this season. As we get closer... the energy in question seems to come in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t know if anyone believes in seasonal trend or anything, as each system is different... but that has kind of been the theme this season. As we get closer... the energy in question seems to come in stronger. Last Wednesday did the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm on siesta until 72hrs out. So these last couple post must of been bad dreams that awoken you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 The promise of 2/2-3 has turded out for the euro family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel like some previous events have been given up on too early this season...or "meh'd" to death at 96-108 hours in a general perception of more certainty than actually existed...this one doesn't look awesome right now, but there is definitely an envelope of solutions on the ensembles that give a pretty good event. Very True. In fact I think just about every event we had this year was given up on at some point in the tracking.... probably at that crucial point you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: The promise of 2/2-3 has turded out for the euro family. Tough to dodge all the torch bullets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Very True. In fact I think just about every event we had this year was given up on at some point in the tracking.... probably at that crucial point you pointed out. Well as long as people are clear about saying this threat doesn’t look good on models right now and then just completely giving up because they’re emotional. There is a difference. I mean, it would be irresponsible to say a major snowstorm is coming just because of the so-called trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 This past Monday/Tuesday ice event way over-performed out here from what i heard....i wasn't around of course. I feel like Tippy was the only one to call that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, Whineminster said: This past Monday/Tuesday ice event way over-performed out here from what i heard....i wasn't around of course. I feel like Tippy was the only one to call that. There’s no relationship though. Models under called the bottom of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 JMA never saw a threat it didn't like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 That’s just showing the IVT . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s just showing the IVT . Nah that's some legit ML fronto from a mid-level center...IVT on that is back toward BUF/ROC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nah that's some legit ML fronto from a mid-level center...IVT on that is back toward BUF/ROC: Missed your UKMET post earlier but here is the precip, first from Scooters Fropa then from the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 12z UKMET looks to bring a foot of snow to the Cape and Islands according to that QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 12z UKMET looks to bring a foot of snow to the Cape and Islands according to that QPF map Qpf does not equal snow my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Qpf does not equal snow my friend I think it would be cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GFS MEX guidance increasing snow totals for Mon and TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think it would be cold enough No way. Not starting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Should be slightly better run on the happy hour GFS then the 12z run, Little sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sneaky happy hour...always ready to pounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Yup, got into the fireball shots, Slightly west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Workable at this time range. Verbatim it's nothing exciting..prob 1-4" of wet snow, but sharpen up that trough just a smidge more and we we're talking plowable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Solid 6"+ here if that were to verify. I'd hit that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 I'd say the odds now favor a decent hit vs. miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 18z GFS is closer to the coast with the low but not enough. It still shows a few inches with the inverted trough. German is a snowstorm for the coast and just inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z GFS is closer to the coast with the low but not enough. It still shows a few inches with the inverted trough. German is a snowstorm for the coast and just inland Wir schneien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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