Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 Not for not ...this next 10 days is rife with potential. it's going to be interesting seeing how it all unfolds. I don't see a slow moving bomb anywhere. The flow is too fast in the gradient saturation everywhere, but, the N-S amplitude is there, so you end up with fast moving larger pwat systems that have the benefit of tapping the deep south air. GGEM has a 24 ice storm after three days later for what it's not worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not last March? Good point. Both were borderline. BOX probably would've had an issue with it. CON and MHT had many lulls with gusts under 30mph, but LCI had an impressive stretch for our standards. I had some big gusts, but we couldn't sustain it for 3+ hours...they would come in 10-15min waves and then relax a bit. Almost like gravity waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its additional waves along a slowed front, anafrontal eh not so much, sure its after the front but its waves traveling along the front Same principles apply...tough to recover much baroclinicity near the coast so quickly after a frontal passage...it can happen, sure. Worked out a couple of years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 It'll be interesting to see if the Euro shows some interest today for Monday?? At work I can only pop in on breaks and quickly in between classes, but if the post count goes up by 50-75 posts in an hours time...that's usually a good barometer that the Euro showed something interesting. If the post count is only up 10-15 posts in an hours time after 1:00 pm...you know it's not good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 so much for the shade closing, huh ... this is an interesting one for early next week. we've been hitting the following conjecture points all week but they're still valid; the governing mechanics have yet to relay into the denser/physical sounding domain, and there's always that potential this thing morphs stronger(weaker) when that happens. Though, in this scenario, I "think" it will tend stronger - and not just for being a storm honk either. The reason I think so is purely speculative ...but say if virtually all those wave mechanics have been for the last couple days ...threading through the shadowy sparse regions of the Pacific: Humorously ..it is as though it's avoiding detection. Anyway, I wonder if the presentation that we are seeing so far in the last couple days are based upon interpolation entirely; and interpolation smooths. Suddenly it comes in, gets sonded and then you dig that much more in the east. It just doesn't sit well that like ...all of it is in the shadows out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Powderfreak-land upslopeville - always >50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 It could trend stronger and rain, too....doesn't have to mean a big dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It could trend stronger and rain, too....doesn't have to mean a big dump. Fftttttt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Fftttttt Def. worth watching...cant complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 12z Euro looks like crap for Mon/Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro looks like crap for Mon/Tues Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 The whole trough axis is to far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 We IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We IVT Congrats PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 IVT's blow, Nothing i would hang a hat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Yeah those IVT rarely work out. Philadelphia looks good on the euro. Still time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats PA. AWT . IVT coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: The whole trough axis is to far east. I'm not seeing that. Longwave UL ridge axis and UL trough axis looks to be in good position. The problem is the progressive flow over the east coast, and little downstream UL ridging... In fact, run to run, the PNA ridge continues to track west on guidance. It should also be noted that the 12z euro shows two disturbances at 96 hr, developing the lead one rather than the trailing wave. This aspect can easily change going forward...Ideally everything would be consolidated once the system is off the SE coast, resulting in a stronger system closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: AWT . IVT coming You hope for the most uninteresting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You hope for the most uninteresting stuff. I hope for snow. Period. In a crap pattern an inch is a win and gets me that much closer to a great pattern come Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I hope for snow. Period. In a crap pattern an inch is a win and gets me that much closer to a great pattern come Feb 2 Enjoy the partly sunny skies I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Euro will figure it out by Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Euro will figure it out by Saturday afternoon I would say the same for all guidance. At least have a much better idea anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I hope for snow. Period. In a crap pattern an inch is a win and gets me that much closer to a great pattern come Feb 2 I notice you move it up a day every 3 days..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Enjoy the partly sunny skies I guess. It’d be light snow here while you sun should it verify. Sorry you’re so upset today. Things will change soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: I notice you move it up a day every 3 days..lol. lol. I think he's gone back and forth on the day. Feb 2nd might be pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Trough was actually deeper than 00z...that's one good trend. There's some energy to the northeast though that is sort of mucking up the downstream ridging a bit. It's been changing a lot from run to run...so we'll see. Wouldn't write it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 EPS mean still looks better than the OP...so there's def some members in there that are decent. Uncertainty still plentiful on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS mean still looks better than the OP...so there's def some members in there that are decent. Uncertainty still plentiful on this one. Keeping 's dreams alive, one post at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 EPS is much better than the inv disaster on the op. We circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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