CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What about all the ones that haven’t? Like last weeks How could it look similar if you didn't look at a model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What about all the ones that haven’t? Like last weeks If we get 8-12" from an inverted trough on Monday, I'll foot the bill for the next GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If we get 8-12" from an inverted trough on Monday, I'll foot the bill for the next GTG. He won't go anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Moves it up to mostly late day and night Monday. That’s when it’s looked like. It’s into CT Mon morning.. Tuesday sunny and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: He won't go anyways. How about holding one convenient to everyone else , rather than just Boston . A novel idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: He won't go anyways. Less of a hit for me..Smithwicks aren't cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How about holding one convenient to everyone else , rather than just Boston . A novel idea I said I'd go to Worcester sometime soon, but there didn't seem to be much interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 I'm sure it's a dream, but that is the mother of all torch to S+ events on the GFS at day 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm sure it's a dream, but that is the mother of all torch to S+ events on the GFS at day 8+ There isn't a doubt in my mind that the EPO is going to be immense....you don't get a block like that early season, and not have it redevelop later after the lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What about all the ones that haven’t? Like last weeks Last week's storm had a weak IVT, sure...but the upper level mechanics were weak too...the trough wasn't like this. Plus, that wasn't a pure IVT either, there was a little ML fronto assist going on there (albeit weak). It's def possible we get an IVT, we do get them. Prob a couple per winter...they usually are minor events. Once in a while we will get a bigger. But at this range, they are very unreliable on guidance and it is true that it is often the model struggling to resolve the better upper level dynamics with the displaced low-level baroclinic zone. Often, the baroclinic zone ends up shifting closer to the upper level dynamics as verification gets closer. If we are still seeing big IVT outputs within 48 hours, then I'd def take them more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There isn't a doubt in my mind that the EPO is going to be immense....you don't get a block like that early season, and not have it redevelop later after the lull. My secret fetish is a nice rain to heavy snow event. Something awesome about the landscape going from brown, to white, and then snow blowing around. It's mesmerizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My secret fetish is a nice rain to heavy snow event. Something awesome about the landscape going from brown, to white, and then snow blowing around. It's mesmerizing. With a flash freeze...March 2005 is still the best for that. We had some good R to S events in the 1990s too....but they have been tougher to come by recently for whatever reason. Jan 2006 had a solid one...total snow was only about 3-4" but good flash freeze with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My secret fetish is a nice rain to heavy snow event. Something awesome about the landscape going from brown, to white, and then snow blowing around. It's mesmerizing. We get a lot of the opposite...nice snow to pingers to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: With a flash freeze...March 2005 is still the best for that. We had some good R to S events in the 1990s too....but they have been tougher to come by recently for whatever reason. Yea, March '05 is tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We get a lot of the opposite...nice snow to pingers to rain Its because its difficult to not have the atmosphere dry out during the cold advection...its usually BS when the models try to do it......fraud 5 member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: With a flash freeze...March 2005 is still the best for that. We had some good R to S events in the 1990s too....but they have been tougher to come by recently for whatever reason. Jan 2006 had a solid one...total snow was only about 3-4" but good flash freeze with it. Walking up Corey Hill at the height in March 2005 had me concerned about my life. That was epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Ukie is pretty close too...hard to say exactly with the ugly 24 hour increments, but prob a scraper at this time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, March '05 is tops. hey, what's the exact date for that? March 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: hey, what's the exact date for that? March 1st? March 8, 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: With a flash freeze...March 2005 is still the best for that. We had some good R to S events in the 1990s too....but they have been tougher to come by recently for whatever reason. Jan 2006 had a solid one...total snow was only about 3-4" but good flash freeze with it. Even that event back in Jan '14 that gave you and Ray like 6" and flashed over my house to paste with baseballs raining down. That was awesome. Quick 2" there. Nothing for Tolland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Or this Christmas...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its because its difficult to not have the atmosphere dry out during the cold advection...its usually BS when the models try to do it......fraud 5 member. Its additional waves along a slowed front, anafrontal eh not so much, sure its after the front but its waves traveling along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GEFS aren't bad either. I will say, that low off of SC is in a climo dangerous spot for tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS aren't bad either. I will say, that low off of SC is in a climo dangerous spot for tricks. Yeah its the classic "Wide right turn, left hook" track spot...starts turning what looks to be a wide right track, and then you get the left hook back north and it will nail New England with the longitude sticking out to the east. The ensembles have been hitting this event harder which says we should def keep an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its additional waves along a slowed front, anafrontal eh not so much, sure its after the front but its waves traveling along the front Starts out more like a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: March 8, 2005. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, March '05 is tops. That's the only storm I can recall up here where blizz criteria was met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: That's the only storm I can recall up here where blizz criteria was met. Not last March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even that event back in Jan '14 that gave you and Ray like 6" and flashed over my house to paste with baseballs raining down. That was awesome. Quick 2" there. Nothing for Tolland though. Everyone snowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS aren't bad either. I will say, that low off of SC is in a climo dangerous spot for tricks. Just using your post as a sounding board... the GFS is completely guided by convective feedback in it's llv reflection re the system early next week. Look at the vorticity panels...may as well be a TC ... It really almost avoids using the westerlies to spin up a low altogether ... as a result, ends up with a paltry NORLUN pivoting away as an afterthought. interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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