Hailstoned Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: You seem to be having one along with Wearwolf What in God's name is the wolf wearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: lol...stop. If my post came across unclear or otherwise, I apologize. I think you're a great MET and really know your stuff....not that you care what I think, but that's the truth. He’s really a big weenie disguised in a red-tagged coat. So go easy on him and dont blow his house down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 NAM looks pretty tasty at 84h...yeah clown range for the NAM and all, but it's got the baroclinic zone pretty close to the coast so that would probably pop pretty nicely when the trough hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GFS looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looks like garbage. Who cares . It always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Actually I may take that back. S/W diving into the Plains looks better now and may have effects in the following frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Actually I may take that back. S/W diving into the Plains looks better now and may have effects in the following frames. 72 or 78? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: 72 or 78? Post hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Post hr 84. ok thanks, the surface also looks better, will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 A biting critter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Still looks like it won't be enough to get it done, Close though, Better then 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 looks rainy for CP on this run verbatim, .... the flips at 108.. still lots of hours.. trend looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GFS is really close this run. Gets SE MA with the main precip shield...with IVT snows further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 That’s really close actually. I think weymouth is still wounded from wolfie’s bites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 I'd like to see less of a compact main precip shield and separation with the inv trough. Still doesn't really get it together yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'd like to see less of a compact main precip shield and separation with the inv trough. Still doesn't really get it together yet. considering the model we looking at, kinda like where we are atm. Would like to see euro improve obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 That IVT is real with this one. It’s very reminiscent of that storm last week where the Hudson Valleyup thru SVT got 8-12”. That feature is real with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GGEM looks like a scraper...trough is pretty deep. Not as much IVT sig on the GGEM either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That IVT is real with this one. It’s very reminiscent of that storm last week where the Hudson Valleyup thru SVT got 8-12”. That feature is real with this OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: OK It’s on every model . It’s legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: considering the model we looking at, kinda like where we are atm. Would like to see euro improve obv. Close to something better though. It would not take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Need the euro to start coming around very soon to make this a viable threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s on every model . It’s legit We've seen them disappear though before as we get closer...sometimes the baroclinic zone just ends up further west than guidance initially tries to portray and you'll get a more normal looking coastal system. It's quite possible the same thing happens this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Start the ivt snows at 8-12” and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Good spot to be in at day 5. Much rather this too far east, than west. Cutter risk is real, but def mitigated by the transience of the PNA ridge....But on the negative side, the transient nature of the PNA ridge will contribute to the progressive/fast movement of this system, and a quick exit stage right. I think we're in good shape for something wintry, and more than a graze, but expectations still capped below a significant event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Moves it up to mostly late day and night Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 t-minus 36 hours until physical sampling begins... everything else the models are doing until that time atones to conjecture ...relative to which conjecture is smartest of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Good spot to be in at day 5. Much rather this too far east, than west. Cutter risk is real, but def mitigated by the transience of the PNA ridge....But on the negative side, the transient nature of the PNA ridge will contribute to the progressive/fast movement of this system, and a quick exit stage right. I think we're in good shape for something wintry, and more than a graze, but expectations still capped below a significant event... Yea, exactly right. Small window for a significant snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 The intensity of the cold plume the Euro dumps into the Canadian prairies/James Bay region at the end of the run from last night was impressive. Talking core temps approaching -40 C at 850 mb in that plume... -EPO as that ridge node tumbles toward the Alaskan sector is really chart topping. The means/freebie products really say it all. And in classic -EPO surge, the initial drill down at mid latitudes is centered over the Rockies. 'Course, that's the Euro - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We've seen them disappear though before as we get closer...sometimes the baroclinic zone just ends up further west than guidance initially tries to portray and you'll get a more normal looking coastal system. It's quite possible the same thing happens this time. What about all the ones that haven’t? Like last weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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