dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kevin is going to have to show a lot of discipline to not hype up the D5 threat...he's been adamant that we are toast until early February with rains to Maine. He will cave if it gets to D3.5 or so and it's showing widespread warning snows. He already has it all covered playing the reverse psychology card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Seems pretty thread the needle type set-up... see no strong reasoning for an eastern off-shore track or a more hugging or even inland wave like was shown yesterday. Looks progressive which I always want to lean towards favoring eastern sections (but I'll always favor eastern sections with any low trucking fast off-shore)...but if that trough axis is a bit further west then it rides up over New England or worse like those cutters shown yesterday or the day before. Just need to time it right and have the baroclinic zone in the right spot. One thing is for sure. It may be one of the less convoluted setups we’ve seen as far as models go. This is one that could lock in at 84-96 and not change much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Wagons west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wagons west..... Oof - some of those would be awfully wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Oof - some of those would be awfully wet. Yeah, A few are tucked in there pretty far to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kevin is going to have to show a lot of discipline to not hype up the D5 threat...he's been adamant that we are toast until early February with rains to Maine. He will cave if it gets to D3.5 or so and it's showing widespread warning snows. Finally.. someone that gets it! Just hope Ryan’s not correct about Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, A few are tucked in there pretty far to the west. Sometimes that's not bad. It doesn't strike me as a system that will have a huge precip shield on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sometimes that's not bad. It doesn't strike me as a system that will have a huge precip shield on the west side. Its progressive to boot, Tough to say where it will end up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Models beginning to show decent snows into Southern New England on Monday and Tuesday, they are beginning to show Gulf of Mexico influenced disturbance riding up the frontal boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 The tony storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The tony storm I’ll never forget one of the big March or February storms 2-3 years back that guy who used to post in the NYC forum, (Mike something I think was his user name) and he always posted these Armageddon scenarios of what might happen 1-2 weeks down the road predicted a 8-12 inch event when the models showed it barely being anything at Day 5-6 and the pattern argued it should be nothing and we got crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 54 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’ll never forget one of the big March or February storms 2-3 years back that guy who used to post in the NYC forum, (Mike something I think was his user name) and he always posted these Armageddon scenarios of what might happen 1-2 weeks down the road predicted a 8-12 inch event when the models showed it barely being anything at Day 5-6 and the pattern argued it should be nothing and we got crushed James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Sometimes that's not bad. It doesn't strike me as a system that will have a huge precip shield on the west side. Agreed. It's kind of elongated in the mid-levels. We will see if that trends more symmetrical but some of the solutions are kind of that elongated mid-level low from northeast to southwest where the good precip only gets about 100 miles NW of the sfc track. Still a long ways to go though. A lot can change. The main shortwave in question doesn't come onshore until late Friday night or Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Doesn't look like a big deal to me as of now. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/modest-storm-threat-emerges-for-monday.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’ll never forget one of the big March or February storms 2-3 years back that guy who used to post in the NYC forum, (Mike something I think was his user name) and he always posted these Armageddon scenarios of what might happen 1-2 weeks down the road predicted a 8-12 inch event when the models showed it barely being anything at Day 5-6 and the pattern argued it should be nothing and we got crushed MikeMost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Kevin is going to have to show a lot of discipline to not hype up the D5 threat...he's been adamant that we are toast until early February with rains to Maine. He will cave if it gets to D3.5 or so and it's showing widespread warning snows. Well to be fair, there have been some METS here also who have been adamant that we are toast until early Feb...even a week or more into February they mentioned. So if this some how comes through, Kevin isn’t the only one who was harping on that card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well to be fair, there have been some METS here also who have been adamant that we are toast until early Feb...even a week or more into February they mentioned. So if this some how comes through, Kevin isn’t the only one who was harping on that card. Most people that I know of were well aware of the fact that you don't need a very favorable pattern to snow at this latitude during the climo peak of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most people that I know of were well aware of the fact that you don't need a very favorable pattern to snow at this latitude during the climo peak of winter. Might have been well aware, but were saying to close the shades and forget it until February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: The tony storm wtf does this even mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Most people that I know of were well aware of the fact that you don't need a very favorable pattern to snow at this latitude during the climo peak of winter. yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Might have been well aware, but were saying to close the shades and forget it until February. Which met said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GFS less impressive..no shock. Hold out to see if ens mean is still amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which met said that? Yeah I remember everyone more or less saying crap pattern but a well timed event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GFS not gonna get it done this run...the western ridge is actually a little better but our main s/w isn't cooperating this time. Produces a weak IVT event. GGEM has a strong IVT due to a much deeper shortwave/trough...a better signal for getting the coastal closer on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which met said that? Page 49, 9th And 11th post down from top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 On January 22, 2018 at 10:42 AM, CoastalWx said: Including tomorrow we have at least three more cutters. Stop putting lipstick on a pig And deal. Don’t forget these cold plunges into the plains that will happen, can also initiate cutters too. Scott was speaking of the model consensus, which at the time was full of cutters. Isn't that what we do in the model thread, WinterWolf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 LOL. Things have changed quite a bit in 3 days. Find where I said no snow. In fact I made fun of Kevin for that. But the pattern looked like crap and still isn’t great if you like alternating warm and cold. If we get snow on Monday and avoid the following cutter, I’ll be surprised, but happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scott was speaking of the model consensus, which at the time was full of cutters. Isn't that what we do in the model thread, WinterWolf? He’s really into the gobbledegook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scott was speaking of the model consensus , which at the time was full of cutters. Isn't that what we do in the model thread, WinterWolf? Ray, my post was very clear. I said Kevin wasn’t the only one saying that we should close the curtains so to speak, and deal with the bad pattern. Others were too...and your quoting of that post shows that. Was only making the point that others were on the close the Curtains train for the rest of January too...not just Kevin. And maybe this Monday night deal is s pipe dream...and the no snow threats goes into February??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ray, my post was very clear. I said Kevin wasn’t the only one saying that we should close the curtains so to speak, and deal with the bad pattern. Others were too...and your quoting of that post shows that. Was only making the point that others were on the close the Curtains train for the rest of January too...not just Kevin. And maybe this Monday night deal is s pipe dream...and the no snow threats goes into February??? Scott was only describing what the model portrayed...in the model thread. Get a grip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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