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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say if we sneak something Monday and somehow get the euro op to  verify with the second potential cutter (or not cutter)..hell of a way to run a bad pattern. I am not sure we can dodge all those bullets though.

One weenie at a time, yesterday might have been an indication of how powerful Eastern Canada is

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here comes the happy hour GFS:

 

 

f120.gif

I have a good a 'feeling' about this... but it's not merely that; the logic is that the ensemble mean in both dependable camps are trending ...and frankly, we're only seeing upticks albeit in veritable inches on ever run at this point. 

Plus, we seem to have a good batting average for/when the entire cubic region of the wave mechanics in question are inside the data sparse shadow region of the low GOA ...such that this one presently traverses.  It's almost like if part of it lapse over into sensory input ...the interpolations ruin.  Then, if it's assessed there because it has to be, but not really measured, when it does ...the assessments always underdone.   ...I'm sure none of that makes sense...

 

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Kevin is going to have to show a lot of discipline to not hype up the D5 threat...he's been adamant that we are toast until early February with rains to Maine. He will cave if it gets to D3.5 or so and it's showing widespread warning snows.

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Man the GFS Op at 384 just makes no sense.  There is no way you’d have that shallow a dump of cold air in the eastern US with that kind of ridge out west.  I’ve noticed this is a new feature of the longer range GFS and the ENS to an extent the last 2-3 years where either the amplitude of the ridge out west or trof in the east doesn’t match what you would realistically see.  One is usually too shallow an amplitude.  Consider the AO is likely negative at Day 15-16 it’s even more odd  

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS are pretty amped...closer than the OP run.

Seems pretty thread the needle type set-up... see no strong reasoning for an eastern off-shore track or a more hugging or even inland wave like was shown yesterday. 

Looks progressive which I always want to lean towards favoring eastern sections (but I'll always favor eastern sections with any low trucking fast off-shore)...but if that trough axis is a bit further west then it rides up over New England or worse like those cutters shown yesterday or the day before.

Just need to time it right and have the baroclinic zone in the right spot. 

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