ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty much a dry FROPA up this way on sunday. Won't need to shut 'em down after all. Funny, I think SR had a net gain last storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Big EPS signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is workable at 132 hours out on the Euro ensemble mean.... Man, I wish there was a way to slow this guy down... Looks of a quick hitter, but we def don't sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Won't need to shut 'em down after all. Funny, I think SR had a net gain last storm, lol. As well as i did here, lol, The county in Northern Maine certainly had a net gain, I guess no rain to the border yesterday and off the table this weekend. 000 NOUS41 KCAR 241539 PNSCAR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-030053--250339- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS National Weather Service Caribou ME 1039 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...CWOP OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...FACEBOOK FANS...AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CARIBOU ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT MAINE ...AROOSTOOK COUNTY... VAN BUREN 15.0 700 AM 1/24 COOP/RIVER 4 ENE NEW SWEDEN 13.0 900 AM 1/24 ALSO 1.2 INCHES SLEET CARIBOU - WFO 11.7 700 AM 1/24 ALSO 1.2 INCHES SLEET LILLE 10.8 700 AM 1/24 COOP/RIVER 1 E MADAWASKA 10.3 600 AM 1/24 COCORAHS FORT KENT 10.0 700 AM 1/24 COOP/RIVER PRESQUE ISLE 9.4 700 AM 1/24 COCORAHS 2 E OXBOW 6.0 700 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER SHERMAN 5.0 555 PM 1/23 SNOW AND SLEET ...HANCOCK COUNTY... 6 SW MARIAVILLE 3.6 700 AM 1/23 COCORAHS 3 SW SULLIVAN 3.0 345 PM 1/23 SOCIAL MEDIA 4 NW ELLSWORTH 3.0 759 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST SURRY 2.6 1125 PM 1/23 COOP/RIVER 2 NW FRANKLIN 2.5 1030 AM 1/24 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 E MARIAVILLE 2.5 800 AM 1/23 COCORAHS 5 S GOULDSBORO 2.0 635 AM 1/24 SOCIAL MEDIA 2 SE SOUTHWEST HARBO 1.5 802 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 W CRANBERRY ISLES 1.5 715 AM 1/23 COCORAHS BROOKLIN 1.4 119 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER ...PENOBSCOT COUNTY... 6 N MILLINOCKET 7.0 130 PM 1/23 1.0 INCH WAS SLEET MILLINOCKET WWTP 5.0 607 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 NE PLYMOUTH 3.8 600 AM 1/23 COCORAHS CHARLESTON 3.0 430 PM 1/23 CHANGED TO FZRA BY 10AM HAMPDEN 3.0 245 PM 1/23 SOCIAL MEDIA CORINNA 2.5 1000 AM 1/23 CO-OP OBSERVER 1 SW ORONO 2.5 117 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER 4 ESE OLD TOWN 2.5 700 AM 1/23 COCORAHS BANGOR 2.1 700 AM 1/24 ASOS/AWOS ...PISCATAQUIS COUNTY... 1 NNW ABBOT 4.0 1229 PM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 SSE KINGSBURY 4.0 1000 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER SANGERVILLE 4.0 633 AM 1/24 SOCIAL MEDIA 3 SE BLANCHARD 3.4 800 AM 1/23 COCORAHS DOVER-FOXCROFT 3.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER EAST SANGERVILLE 3.0 700 AM 1/24 CO-OP OBSERVER ...SOMERSET COUNTY... 1 S ST. JUSTE 8.0 519 PM 1/23 INCLUDES 1 INCH SLEET 14 WNW COMSTOCK 6.0 518 PM 1/23 ST. ZACHARIE CBP ...WASHINGTON COUNTY... 1 SW CHARLOTTE 4.0 800 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER PRINCETON 4.0 633 AM 1/24 SOCIAL MEDIA TOPSFIELD 3.6 939 AM 1/24 COOP/RIVER EASTPORT 3.6 700 AM 1/23 COCORAHS WOODLAND (BAILEYVILL 3.0 700 AM 1/23 CO-OP OBSERVER 3 NE EDMUNDS 3.0 700 AM 1/23 COCORAHS ROBBINSTON 2.9 1158 PM 1/23 CO-OP OBSERVER MILLBRIDGE 2.5 730 PM 1/23 SOCIAL MEDIA WHITING 2.0 700 AM 1/24 COOP/RIVER 4 E EAST MACHIAS 2.0 507 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 SW EAST MACHIAS 2.0 1033 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 N COOPER 2.0 944 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER WESLEY 2.0 238 PM 1/23 SOCIAL MEDIA 1 NNE COLUMBIA FALLS 1.8 928 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER 5 ENE TRESCOTT 1.5 800 AM 1/23 COCORAHS JONESBORO 1.5 713 AM 1/23 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 yeah ... as we alluded to earlier... not waiting to Feb 5th... I don't think anyway. I also think that D6 deal is a prime candidate for entry/morphology when that comes on shore in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Shades partially opened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I know it’s weenie but this works. Using SV snow totals for the entire EPS run, good vs bad patterns are well telegraphed. We’re taking them up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ... as we alluded to earlier... not waiting to Feb 5th... I don't think anyway. I also think that D6 deal is a prime candidate for entry/morphology when that comes on shore in a day or two. Yeah the shortwave responsible for it doesn't come ashore BC/Washington State until about 12z Saturday. Then it races down into the plains and is off the east coast by Tuesday. The way it forms though has that look of a lot of systems that have become more amped as we get closer. Decent western ridge coupled with the threat, so there's some assist there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Won't need to shut 'em down after all. Funny, I think SR had a net gain last storm, lol. We definitely had a net gain on the mountain and no change here in town. 1" of sleet that didn't melt then 3" of dense graupel/snow last night for Stowe. We actually opened more natural snow terrain than was open before "the cutter" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Snow88 is on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The way it forms though has that look of a lot of systems that have become more amped as we get closer. Decent western ridge coupled with the threat, so there's some assist there. That's funny you wrote that because I took a closer look at that and that's precisely how that struck me. I also, thought, 'here we go again' with a global based hydrostatic model (or what are the VV kinematics in the Euro these days...), developing a surface low oddly displaced way out half way to England with all the q-v forcing still hundreds of miles closer to the coast (Hr. 144) . I think the inverted trough in that depiction is telling.. there' forcing back west and eventually... it may yet again come down to a non-hydrostatic modeling type to handle that ludicrously intense thermal packing that's likely to align near the g-string at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Might start as rain as the cold comes in as precip is getting going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Snow88 is on fire. that's what happens when one bakes meth without adequate combustion controls... j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 holy hell.. the D10/12 mean over at PSU is insane with that EPO dome punching into the lower stratosphere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 ECMWF 12z As you can see there is a possibility of a decent snow event mainly for the New England area, not so much Mid-Atlantic as of right now (wait until later). With a cold pattern consistently forecast and a setup like this, i wouldn't be surprised if this comes to fruition and we see at least a couple decent snow events (mainly in between 6-12'' seems realistic at this point) But it could change as we get closer. As of now, light-moderate snow events seems most realistic (again, at this point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the shortwave responsible for it doesn't come ashore BC/Washington State until about 12z Saturday. Then it races down into the plains and is off the east coast by Tuesday. The way it forms though has that look of a lot of systems that have become more amped as we get closer. Decent western ridge coupled with the threat, so there's some assist there. Hopefully she comes in hot, and taps into the Gulf so she can spin up faster than she's moving...The progressive flow off the east coast is the greatest risk against this turning into something significant, in my view. I'm not concerned with track as much as I am the dynamics --or lack thereof--she brings with her. Nevertheless, I def agree that the general setup favors better downstream UL ridging with time...so at least there's that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 13 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: ECMWF 12z As you can see there is a possibility of a decent snow event mainly for the New England area, not so much Mid-Atlantic as of right now (wait until later). With a cold pattern consistently forecast and a setup like this, i wouldn't be surprised if this comes to fruition and we see at least a couple decent snow events (mainly in between 6-12'' seems realistic at this point) But it could change as we get closer. As of now, light-moderate snow events seems most realistic (again, at this point) you’ll get more if you keep posting 10 day operational forecast charts. Use ensembles at this time frame. Reliability for operational models beyond d5-6 is suspect and by d10 it is piss poor. Ensembles give you a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 12z EURO shows how you make it snow in a crappy pattern. Would be a decent 10 day stretch with a couple events verbatim in what has been written off as a period for snows. *Only posted to show the possibilities...not that this is expected. "But you're saying there's a chance..." If we can get to February with another event or two that'd be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Might start as rain as the cold comes in as precip is getting going Impossible to snow in this pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z EURO shows how you make it snow in a crappy pattern. Would be a decent 10 day stretch with a couple events verbatim in what has been written off as a period for snows. *Only posted to show the possibilities...not that this is expected. "But you're saying there's a chance..." If we can get to February with another event or two that'd be nice. We have enough latitude that we can "get away with" a crappy pattern sometimes. It is one reason I never quite understand the doom and gloom at times when we're not cooking up -3 SD EPOs or AOs...yeah I wish the pattern was perfect in its own way like 2015 was or Jan 2011...but we will find ways to snow at this latitude semi-frequently even when the PAC jet is a bit excited and we've lost some of the blocking up north. It's not a lottery ticket or hail mary like it might be much further south. I mean, I would like to buy a -NAO at some point though...it helps offset a garbage PAC quite well in the retention department. Still, we may be able to pull off an event next week and who knows...maybe even D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We have enough latitude that we can "get away with" a crappy pattern sometimes. It is one reason I never quite understand the doom and gloom at times when we're not cooking up -3 SD EPOs or AOs...yeah I wish the pattern was perfect in its own way like 2015 was or Jan 2011...but we will find ways to snow at this latitude semi-frequently even when the PAC jet is a bit excited and we've lost some of the blocking up north. It's not a lottery ticket or hail mary like it might be much further south. I mean, I would like to buy a -NAO at some point though...it helps offset a garbage PAC quite well in the retention department. Still, we may be able to pull off an event next week and who knows...maybe even D10. Yea, no complaints at all. Its been a good season. If we can steal another moderate event within the next week, that would leave us primed for a big finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Has anyone checked the strat of late? I preached it, but have failed to do so. Everyone loves discussing regression....aren't we due for some regression in the N Atl? Christ....you would think the atmosphere would accidently engineer a neg NAO for a day or three- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Has anyone checked the strat of late? I preached it, but have failed to do so. Everyone loves discussing regression....aren't we due for some regression in the N Atl? Christ....you would think the atmosphere would accidently engineer a neg NAO for a day or three- Looks rather cold to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Here comes the happy hour GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Impossible to snow in this pattern? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks rather cold to me. The NAO will report with pitchers and catchers, then exit stage right with the Sox the first week of October, per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: ? Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Getting closer to our next Snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Happy hour is right. Nice hangback of snow..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks rather cold to me. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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