jbenedet Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 We meh until end of the month. I still think Feb 1st is a good BM for a better pattern materializing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: don't have 6 hr precip on EPS but there is a sig here to watch Looks like it will be quite progressive. I'm favoring an open wave, riding the BZ, and an advisory type deal. 1-3" western SNE, 3-5" eastern SNE. That's my early take for max potential, with a slightly less than equal chance that this just goes ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 I'm not sure I agree with y'all on your overt conservatism with pattern changes and dates here. Feb 5th ? ...we could be two storms deep in it by then. But we'll see... I'm happy to be wrong, but here are my thinking points: 1 ... when this pattern evolves/morphs into being ...it will be a fast flow, saturated gradient look (again). Those patterns feature progressive events and relatively quick turn around between them. As well, that also feeds-back in speeding up the total transition of the pattern relay its self because events at all scales enter into a faster modality. 2 ... (not utilizing the timing of the EPS' EPO mode/forecast but it looks the same synoptically...) the GEFs time the plummet of the EPO around the 30th/31st of the month. Caveat emptor applies, that earlier onset -EPO may dig heights west first ...? However, that is no guarantee a ridge pops along the M/A that extends all the way up this far anyway; and even so, ... subtended in longitude from that sort of flow construct could very well be a confluence over S and SE Canada, which would assert polar highs wedging(s) in under any said ridge anyway. Or not.. we'd have to see. 3 ... this is the kicker for me that says beware of things breaking sooner. The EPO isn't just tanking... The PNA is rising strongly per CPC, and is concertedly agreed in the members. The index climbs passing neutral on the 30th...and ends up +1 SD or even more in positive mode BY THE 5th... That's actually getting late by Archembalt timing matters for mass-field /related balancing event. 4 ... if all that were not enough; this is a poor thaw. We are seeing dailies marred by cold inserts every couple in the operational runs...and the 00z and 06z GFS' hinting at a NORLAN D6/7...sometimes a NJ Model detonator will show up first as a NORLUN look... Cannot be removed from contention just yet... it's D6 on 00z. ... I'm also less impressed (not that anyone asked) about the deep gradient look with a massive gyre some - 3 or 4 SD, while the entire quatra-hemispheric scope has to make room and circulate around it like that... You really don't want that look... That's those big beautiful juicy red berries you see that send you to the ER for a stomach pumping if you eat any... What you want is midland gradient, with embedded intense discrete S/W phenomenon; in the more idealistic sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It was supposed to be in by Dec 5th and it was. I don’t mean icebox sets in Feb 3.. just a more sustained cooler than normal pattern and snow. Right now, it’s impossible for it to snow in this pattern right thru end of month . That changes by Feb 3 Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I agree with y'all on your overt conservatism with pattern changes and dates here. Feb 5th ? ...we could be two storms deep in it by then. But we'll see... I'm happy to be wrong, but here are my thinking points: 1 ... when this pattern evolves/morphs into being ...it will be a fast flow, saturated gradient look (again). Those patterns feature progressive events and relatively quick turn around between them. As well, that also feeds-back in speeding up the total transition of the pattern relay its self because events at all scales enter into a faster modality. 2 ... (not utilizing the timing of the EPS' EPO mode/forecast but it looks the same synoptically...) the GEFs time the plummet of the EPO around the 30th/31st of the month. Caveat emptor applies, that earlier onset -EPO may dig heights west first ...? However, that is no guarantee a ridge pops along the M/A that extends all the way up this far anyway; and even so, ... subtended in longitude from that sort of flow construct could very well be a confluence over S and SE Canada, which would assert polar highs wedging(s) in under any said ridge anyway. Or not.. we'd have to see. 3 ... this is the kicker for me that says beware of things breaking sooner. The EPO isn't just tanking... The PNA is rising strongly per CPC, and is concertedly agreed in the members. The index climbs passing neutral on the 30th...and ends up +1 SD or even more in positive mode BY THE 5th... That's actually getting late by Archembalt timing matters for mass-field /related balancing event. 4 ... if all that were not enough; this is a poor thaw. We are seeing dailies marred by cold inserts every couple in the operational runs...and the 00z and 06z GFS' hinting at a NORLAN D6/7...sometimes a NJ Model detonator will show up first as a NORLUN look... Cannot be removed from contention just yet... it's D6 on 00z. ... I'm also less impressed (not that anyone asked) about the deep gradient look with a massive gyre some - 3 or 4 SD, while the entire quatra-hemispheric scope has to make room and circulate around it like that... You really don't want that look... That's those big beautiful juicy red berries you see that send you to the ER for a stomach pumping if you eat any... What you want is midland gradient, with embedded intense discrete S/W phenomenon; in the more idealistic sense I agree in general with all points Tip. Regarding the day 6 disturbance(s)--I'd be A LOT more interested in this if said pieces were in place (the table was set) prior to its arrival. It's day 6 so obviously could change, but I can't disregard that the timing looks unfavorable for our region by a day or two, and that usually means NL or the Carolinas --depending on which disturbance, blows up (first or second, respectively)--are the better places to be for a significant event. I am still favoring an advisory level event around here though...We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2018 Author Share Posted January 24, 2018 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I agree in general with all points Tip. Regarding the day 6 disturbance(s)--I'd be A LOT more interested in this if said pieces were in place (the table was set) prior to its arrival. It's day 6 so obviously could change, but I can't disregard that the timing looks unfavorable for our region by a day or two, and that usually means NL or the Carolinas --depending on which disturbance, blows up (first or second, respectively)--are the better places to be for a significant event. I am still favoring an advisory level event around here though...We'll see... one thing to caution for this D6/7 wave space is that it's compressed in the y-coordinate ... fitting (present) its mechanical envelope squarely inside the data sparser regions over the Pacific. That's a pretty good recipe for some morphology over N/A once that relays in. Not always... no. But, often times with these progressive midland depth waves coming in like that you get an amplitude beef-up suddenly at 72 to 96 hours out ...right about the time it's nosing over land out west. In this case ...~ 36 hours from 00z's initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 These -EPO cold dumps spawn Plains cyclogenesis. We know this well. So I think what some are saying (including myself) is that don’t be surprised if we are on the tight rope here for a storm or two, before the long wave trough moves east a bit. I could very well see that. Heights literallly just offshore are progged to be higher than normal. Storm track likely will be nearby. But, for those who like action, this is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I'll take my chances with that look, Supposedly, I was suppose to be looking at bare ground right now according to some on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I'll take my chances with that look, Supposedly, I was suppose to be looking at bare ground right now according to some on here. NNE/SNE split in sentiment. I'm still getting used to it. This has been --and continues to be--a solid winter up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: NNE/SNE split in sentiment. I'm still getting used to it. This has been --and continues to be--a solid winter up here. Even in a garbage pattern, As long as you reside on the right side of the gradient you can still do ok, Latitude....ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 15 minutes ago, jbenedet said: NNE/SNE split in sentiment. I'm still getting used to it. This has been --and continues to be--a solid winter up here. Certainly nobody should be disappointed with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Even in a garbage pattern, As long as you reside on the right side of the gradient you can still do ok, Latitude....ftw Def truth to that. Such is the difficulty in having 4 different climate zones in one sub forum. But more importantly, it isn't a garbage pattern. It isn't good, but isn't garbage either... I think it has been viewed more negatively (in general) because we were locked in with an UL trough overhead, and an influx of arctic airmasses to begin the season. So relatively speaking, this is far worse - but all things considered it's far from terrible...Everyone but the SE coast can probably agree here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Def truth to that. Such is the difficulty in having 4 different climate zones in one sub forum. But more importantly, it isn't a garbage pattern. It isn't good, but isn't garbage either... I think it has been viewed more negatively (in general) because we were locked in with an UL trough overhead, and an influx of arctic airmasses to begin the season. So relatively speaking, this is far worse - but all things considered it's far from terrible...Everyone but the SE coast can probably agree here.... Well, I wasn't necessarily referring to this pattern, We have had worse then this and have done ok in NNE, I don't even consider this a true 2 week torch, Sure we have had some warmer days but then we go right back to near or below on others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Watch the D6 system...ginxy posted 00z EPS, but the 12z run is possibly a better setup with the cold more established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Watch the D6 system...ginxy posted 00z EPS, but the 12z run is possibly a better setup with the cold more established. Seems more like Mon pm/Mon nite on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Its close on the 12z euro, Another right at the end of the op run to but normal caveats apply @hr240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I was just about to post. Definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems more like Mon pm/Mon nite on Euro Yeah like mon night. 5.5 days...same difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Sometimes these IVT looks become coastals, With a SLP track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 This is workable at 132 hours out on the Euro ensemble mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Yeah we’ll take this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Ridge sharpened up out west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Perhaps we don't have to wait 10+ days for something of interest to track. That's a pretty sweet look on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Yea, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 And certainly no cutter this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 That ship has sailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: And certainly no cutter this weekend. But don’t Sat/Sun still torch into 40’s? Rain Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But don’t Sat/Sun still torch into 40’s? Rain Sunday Yeah it’s mild esp down here. But I mean nothing absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Pretty much a dry FROPA up this way on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Gefs are very close with the 28-29 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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