WinterWolf Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, sankaty said: On Jan 18, 2011, I had 2.5" snow and then a fair amount of ice. The icing was localized to the CRV, but it was one of the bigger ice storms we've had here in the last decade. We had about 20" of snow OTG before the storm, so encasing everything in ice made for quite an arctic landscape. And added a huge amount of weight to the pack...which led to many roof collapses after the next 18 inches that fell a week later!! Pack was huge...shoveled three roofs the end of January that year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 good ol' cold looks into February per the GFS ridiculously far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 That thing is a torch for the east lol...18z 384 GFS...I’ll take the under on that for the east on Feb 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I think the long lull is going to allow for some hype to build, which may engender feelings of frustration if we don't get a large event as early as some hope. It may take a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the long lull is going to allow for some hype to build, which may engender feelings of frustration if we don't get a large event as early as some hope. It may take a while. Yep, sometimes it’s a few days later when you get closer to T=0. I expect some melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Look back at the build up to the Christmas on pattern, same posts from the weenie hall of fame sayings about how models always rush pattern changes. Well apparently not always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Look back at the build up to the Christmas on pattern, same posts from the weenie hall of fame sayings about how models always rush pattern changes. Well apparently not always Weenie hall of fame? My timing was pretty accurate, dude.. I remember you calling for a big event in early December, and we stayed moderate on 12-9...as was anticipated by the other contingent. No one is saying torch to Valentine's day, but I'd temper expectations until a bit later in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Weenie hall of fame? My timing was pretty accurate, dude.. I remember you calling for a big event in early December, and we stayed moderate on 12-9...as was anticipated by the other contingent. No one is saying torch to Valentine's day, but I'd temper expectations until a bit later in Feb. Not talking about your forecast and pretty sure I didn't call for a big event but did expext snow. Modeling absolutely nailed the timing and extent of Christmas on. There were the same posts from the same folks saying it would be closer to New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 It would be nice to get that day 6 event to work out in our favor. Then it would at least feel like the change is coming earlier than expected. I think by February 5th is when the pattern materializes and deep winter returns. I agree it could come together a few days earlier than that anyhow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not talking about your forecast and pretty sure I didn't call for a big event but did expext snow. Modeling absolutely nailed the timing and extent of Christmas on. There were the same posts from the same folks saying it would be closer to New Years. Sure seemed like you were talking to either me or Scott. I do remember you strongly considering a larger event earlier in December...not saying you spoke in absolutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: It would be nice to get that day 6 event to work out in our favor. Then it would at least feel like the change is coming earlier than expected. I think by February 5th is when the pattern materializes and deep winter returns. I agree it could come together a few days earlier than that anyhow though. I hope to god we don't get crushed between the 12th and 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sure seemed like you were talking to either me or Scott. I do remember you strongly considering a larger event earlier in December...not saying you spoke in absolutes. I was expecting 6 to 12 on the 9th only got 5.75, my bad. I did miss a big event that scurried out to sea late though. Very happy with how today turned out. Called for a CNE NNE ice storm in the middle of the "thaw" period. Very bullish on the upcoming pattern starting around the 5th too. Would be surprised if no major snow before the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I was expecting 6 to 12 on the 9th only got 5.75, my bad. I did miss a big event that scurried out to sea late though. Very happy with how today turned out. Called for a CNE NNE ice storm in the middle of the "thaw" period. Very bullish on the upcoming pattern staring around the 5th too. Would be surprised if no major snow before the 12th. That was a very good call on the ice storm btw. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That was a very good call on the ice storm btw. Agreed. Not looking for a back pat but thanks. The Cyrosphere in Eastern Canada keeps influencing the pattern. Love years where that starts often and early. Lots of feedback we all don't understand completely but there are a few indicators that help us see potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope to god we don't get crushed between the 12th and 20th. I wasn’t thinking from the 8th-18th sometime for the crusher.I know February 9th is a day it likes to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Not looking for a back pat but thanks. The Cyrosphere in Eastern Canada keeps influencing the pattern. Love years where that starts often and early. Lots of feedback we all don't understand completely but there are a few indicators that help us see potential. I was shocked by how stubborn the cold was....I admittedly wasn't following the lead up closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I wasn’t thinking from the 8th-18th sometime for the crusher.I know February 9th is a day it likes to snow I would take this Feb and March again...we'd do better this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Maybe lighter on the NAO and heavier on the EPO. I think those PAC heights will be closer to AK and the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Ray meeting his future in laws in Africa. Future in laws wondering why so glum-at least you’re not in the 2-4 feet of snow back home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe a lighter on the NAO and heavier on the EPO. Agreed, and maybe some PNA action as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was shocked by how stubborn the cold was....I admittedly wasn't following the lead up closely. CAD is such a badly forecasted phenomena. Low DP drains can be traced way up to North of Maine. A bunch of folks were concerned but many were caught flat footed and playing catchup thinking the antecedent conditions would hold it off Chris from GYX was great the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Then a wedding in Seattle on 3/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Then a wedding in Seattle on 3/10 Where’s the honeymoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said: Agreed, and maybe some PNA action as well Yea, that's what I meant by "west coast". Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Where’s the honeymoon? My wedding is on 7/4...its my niece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: CAD is such a badly forecasted phenomena. Low DP drains can be traced way up to North of Maine. A bunch of folks were concerned but many were caught flat footed and playing catchup thinking the antecedent conditions would hold it off Chris from GYX was great the entire event Tip nailed that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ray meeting his future in laws in Africa. Future in laws wondering why so glum-at least you’re not in the 2-4 feet of snow back home! Lol I thought about this. No way could they relate to a snow weenies far away thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My wedding is on 7/4...its my niece. Seattle is a great city-just not at all wintry. I’m heading to Denver next Tuesday-at least there’s a shot there later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Seattle is a great city-just not at all wintry. I’m heading to Denver next Tuesday-at least there’s a shot there later in the week. Yea, its my first time there during the cold season...I usually go in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Seattle is a great city-just not at all wintry. I’m heading to Denver next Tuesday-at least there’s a shot there later in the week. I remember your Epic Denver trip, what year was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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