ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have we avoided the weekend torch? Saturday will still be mild in the 40s (maybe over 50 in the usual torch spots?) with SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Euro would be nice for ski areas. Big cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Saturday will still be mild in the 40s (maybe over 50 in the usual torch spots?) with SW flow. But no snow right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: But no snow right? No, only NNE...unless you count the inverted trough that gives us like an inch as the storm departs...but those are fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Man the Euro so isn't what it used to be....Holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Euro caves a lot, pretty much every storm this season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Man the Euro so isn't what it used to be....Holy smokes. To be fair, we're talking a D5-6 system here. We used to rarely even considering anything outside of D5 worth tracking seriously just a few years ago. But these days, we seem to track stuff from 10 days out and expectations get set...whether good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 I don't think that trend is done though - ...not that anyone said otherwise... straw man arguin' The 00z Euro I thought was just hiccuping or something, pushing that negative tilt into the TV and then doing an 'almost' just on is... Then I saw these 12z operational GFS/GGEM runs and well... there may be a need to watch that D5.5 - D7 range. There is also presentation of that time frame amid some of the various GEFs members ... The stark differences between the 00z and 12z Euro wrt to the deep layer handling is probably more telling than what it is indicating on either run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Its still out in eternity, Don't even have to look past today's storm that failed from inside 24 hrs, The GFS has been pretty steady though at this just being a FROPA for a few days, Time will tell as we get closer but most all guidance has shifted away from the full blown cutter scenario for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 What... "Caving" should not apply to a system that's like 6 days out? I don't think that time range was ever in the Euro's statistical wheelhouse and I KNOW it definitely isn't inside the GFS or GGEMs... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 TK locks it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't think that trend is done though - ...not that anyone said otherwise... straw man arguin' The 00z Euro I thought was just hiccuping or something, pushing that negative tilt into the TV and then doing an 'almost' just on is... Then I saw these 12z operational GFS/GGEM runs and well... there may be a need to watch that D5.5 - D7 range. There is also presentation of that time frame amid some of the various GEFs members ... The stark differences between the 00z and 12z Euro wrt to the deep layer handling is probably more telling than what it is indicating on either run. Wouldn't take a huge change now to introduce wintry precip into a good chunk of the forum on that system. We'll see if we can get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Man the Euro so isn't what it used to be....Holy smokes. The whole "Euro is King" in years past was a little bit oversold anyway. Maybe it was king for 6-10 years in a regime it could better handle and now tele's have shifted? I dunno' maybeTip or one of the other long range Mets has some insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Meh, day 6 and beyond isn’t really worth getting into model sucks for this reason or that reason. Talk to me inside 3 days and especially 2 days. Euro wins that and that’s all I care about. Of course, one shouldn’t always run away with the solution verbatim...but more often than not...it has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The whole "Euro is King" in years past was a little bit oversold anyway. Maybe it was king for 6-10 years in a regime it could better handle and now tele's have shifted? I dunno' maybeTip or one of the other long range Mets has some insight. Euro wheelhouse was always about D4 and inside that...esp 84 hours...we kind of really started hammering that model around 84 hours down to about 48 when the mesos became more useful. D6 was considered clown range a decade ago. D6-7 model forecasts have gotten a little more accurate since then but not nearly enough to justify the amount of attention that gets paid to D6-7 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 That said, the Euro still performed better than other guidance at D5-6...it just was that scores across the board dropped off enough that those D6 forecasts weren't very reliable...even for the best scoring model. I recall so many systems where the Euro had a cutter at D6 and we didn't even really pay attention or worry at all...December 19, 2008 was one of them...36-48 hours later it was showing a SWFE with big snowfall and we started tracking it seriously inside of 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro wheelhouse was always about D4 and inside that...esp 84 hours...we kind of really started hammering that model around 84 hours down to about 48 when the mesos became more useful. D6 was considered clown range a decade ago. D6-7 model forecasts have gotten a little more accurate since then but not nearly enough to justify the amount of attention that gets paid to D6-7 threats. Ok, thanks, that makes sense. Do you feel like some Mesos have become more reliable over the past 10 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 EPS similar to op, couple more FROPAs maybe a cutter then... who let the dogs out, strap in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: TK locks it in Enjoy your possible zero-trace over the span of 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 put it in the back of the noggin, full moon week first week of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Personally I feel the mesos have improved. I think the best advice is to be careful with those high res models and cyclogenesis, but I would say they are a bit better than several years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Good lord almighty look at that EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Basically what happens this go round is we are in a great region of the PV setup for STJ interaction with Nstream, core of cold stays in the mid of the country but the East Coast is primed for coastal interaction. Has the hallmarks of very active period of snow coming up. Eventually that core will rotate over us. I could see us averaging couple of degrees below normal or normal but way above snow the first 2 weeks of Feb then katy bar the door for the Arctic. That EPO look is extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Good lord almighty look at that EPO Nice! We welcome with open arms........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Give me a more +pna instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 There’s a cutter danger in that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Give me a more +pna instead. Yeah without a -NAO, I want that ridge further east ala 2015. But at least that is better than the 2nd half of January pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Give me a more +pna instead. Get us the cold and it will snow, your PNA will come in due time, patience grasshopper. The EPO is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a cutter danger in that pattern half glass empty again I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I like it. Looks better for us west of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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