Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

[ORH_wxman]

If we want a big time event...we prob need to sharpen the trough a little...really have the energy consolidate more in a ball of vorticity....or get the whole thing to go a little further south....but you don't want to run the risk of the left hook into E MA...more of a problem for coastal peeps....but could still be annoying with a dryslot for the rest of us.

 

The larger scale pieces are there for a big event, but that doesn't mean they always happen. Could easily be a moderate event or advisory...something of that nature. I'd keep expectations subdued until there's more evidence of a double digit storm.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we want a big time event...we prob need to sharpen the trough a little...really have the energy consolidate more in a ball of vorticity....or get the whole thing to go a little further south....but you don't want to run the risk of the left hook into E MA...more of a problem for coastal peeps....but could still be annoying with a dryslot for the rest of us.

 

The larger scale pieces are there for a big event, but that doesn't mean they always happen. Could easily be a moderate event or advisory...something of that nature. I'd keep expectations subdued until there's more evidence of a double digit storm.

This.

Sometimes it just doesn’t come together like it could from the look...gotta see where we are/what it looks like come Saturday PM. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This.

Sometimes it just doesn’t come together like it could from the look...gotta see where we are/what it looks like come Saturday PM. 

 I think a light to moderate event is a decent chance. 

[snowgeek]

These Miller B’s that form just to our south are precarious and if everything works out I feel like the models won’t catch on until inside 60 hours. It would be a shame with this set up to not have a sharper little nuke shortwave rounding the bend at the right time. I’d give my left but for a Jan 83 here in Albany lol, although my expectations are currently in check.


.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I think a light to moderate event is a decent chance. 

Oh ya I agree.  But we were getting a bit excited by the big pieces that look good, and modeling slammed the breaks on today for something a bit bigger.  Which imo I expected...this plays into that dead zone where modeling starts to waiver and /or lose the good look.  It happens a lot when the signals are there for a decent event.  

 

Sometimes it comes roaring back...sometimes not.  After this rainstorm gets out of the way, we’ll have a better idea obviously.  

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

18z NAM and GFS show a prolonged period of ocean effect snow occurring all across Cape Cod, however, the depth of cold air is lacking at least initially for the area as 850mb temps drop to around -10C, with a 6-8C water temp, the differential is less than ideal for heavy snows.  Although the modeled 850mb temps could change in time, this appears a less likely factor that will end up precluding a major snow event, however, after the clipper comes through another Ocean Effect snow event is possible as winds turn northerly and 850mb temps drop to around -15C.  We need to watch if an unidirectional flow occurs from 900mb to the surface, that will lead to convergence at the surface into a one band event which will likely dump heavy snows.  Then a clipper will enter the frame from Monday night into Wednesday morning with a potential long duration event if the storm stalls near the benchmark instead of near Bar Harbor, ME.  We need to watch future model runs for this potential event.  This is still five days away, actually make that 4 days away at 00z today.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

*/ Saturday night through Monday...

Arctic high pressure building across the region. Monitoring ocean
effect snows over the Cape and Islands. Whether uni-directional N/NE
flow within the boundary layer, relative humidity favorably at or
above 70 percent, beneath cyclonic flow. Overall thinking outcomes
will be light. Shear within the layer somewhat disruptive as lapse
rates derive from temperature differences of 10-13 degrees. Noting
the warm ocean temperatures of 40 degrees, the temperature of the
top of the layer, ocean induced CAPE only as high as 200 J/kg, nCAPE
up to 0.15. Would like to see higher values. Expecting light snow
outcomes of tenths from Falmouth of Chatham given the wind direction
throughout the forecast period, better chance seemingly Sunday night
into Monday with mid-level ascent provided by an impulse rotating
through the cyclonic flow. Coldest temperatures around Sunday, going
to be in the freezer. Possible WIND CHILL headlines needed for the
Berkshires otherwise expecting values as low as 10 below zero.

*/ Tuesday into Wednesday...

Clipper low transferring energy offshore over the better baroclinic
zone / stalled cold front up against the Atlantic H5 ridge. Coastal
low developing per consensus of ensemble member / mean guidance. As
to outcomes, still uncertain with respect to intensity, proximity,
movement and timing, details which will be outlined as we get closer
to the event. One thing worth noting is the positive-tilted H5 trof
axis leading into the event becoming negative afterward. Seemingly
developing across New England but deeper and more explosive down-
stream. Looking like a rain / snow event, snow to liquid ratio
dependent respective to regions of favorable lift / ascent, just too
early to get on amounts and exact impacts.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
AFD Taunton NWS WFO

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

C’mon this same BS happens with every threat.   Looks decent/great potential and then all of a sudden the models lose or start going the opposite way and don’t develop it, or it’s too Far East/West etc. We  had to know this was coming...it’s as regular as clock work.  

The Nuke comments just before the Euro were the kiss of death today..that was obvious as can be lol.  

 

Ryan already said not a big storm for Tuesday/Wednesday on air....perhaps a couple inches so he’s on board for a modest event. 

 

Solid analysis, thanks for sharing. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ahhh

January Rain

Does it rain @ Aspen during MET winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we want a big time event...we prob need to sharpen the trough a little...really have the energy consolidate more in a ball of vorticity....or get the whole thing to go a little further south....but you don't want to run the risk of the left hook into E MA...more of a problem for coastal peeps....but could still be annoying with a dryslot for the rest of us.

 

The larger scale pieces are there for a big event, but that doesn't mean they always happen. Could easily be a moderate event or advisory...something of that nature. I'd keep expectations subdued until there's more evidence of a double digit storm.

I mentioned that H5 low being a bit too far north last night....still that way on the 12z euro.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh ya I agree.  But we were getting a bit excited by the big pieces that look good, and modeling slammed the breaks on today for something a bit bigger.  Which imo I expected...this plays into that dead zone where modeling starts to waiver and /or lose the good look.  It happens a lot when the signals are there for a decent event.  

 

Sometimes it comes roaring back...sometimes not.  After this rainstorm gets out of the way, we’ll have a better idea obviously.  

Sometimes I feel like a nut, sometimes I don’t. 

Did you hit your head riding your new sled? You post like you were just concussed....feel better. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we want a big time event...we prob need to sharpen the trough a little...really have the energy consolidate more in a ball of vorticity....or get the whole thing to go a little further south....but you don't want to run the risk of the left hook into E MA...more of a problem for coastal peeps....but could still be annoying with a dryslot for the rest of us.

 

The larger scale pieces are there for a big event, but that doesn't mean they always happen. Could easily be a moderate event or advisory...something of that nature. I'd keep expectations subdued until there's more evidence of a double digit storm.

That's the primary issue I see at this point,  the energy gets strung out along a broad trough and we are left with little mechanics to produce a surface reflection once it rounds the corner.  It gets a bit of a jolt once it hits the warmer waters of the Atlantic but by that time its N of most of us.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned that H5 low being a bit too far north last night....still that way on the 12z euro.

I wonder if the trough getting pinched off by the ridge bridge above prevents any further digging. Basically, we get a floating cutoff ULL that goes west to east, nothing there to dig it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Also, the orientation of the ULL leaves a lot to be desired. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sometimes I feel like a nut, sometimes I don’t. 

Did you hit your head riding your new sled? You post like you were just concussed....feel better. 

No, sled was great...thanks for caring.  

 

Im sorry if my post wasn’t intellectual enough for your liking.  But in my opinion we are in that time frame where the models start to do strange things with the evolution of a potential system.  It happens more times than not..and that is my meaning.

 

Your pinched off trough is quite possibly not being modeled correctly at this lead..which is why it’s doing what it is. 

 

So go PINCH one off yourself while your at it lol! 

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No, sled was great...thanks for caring.  

 

Im sorry if my post wasn’t intellectual enough for your liking.  But in my opinion we are in that time frame where the models start to do strange things with the evolution of a potential system.  It happens more times than not..and that is my meaning.

 

Your pinched off trough is quite possibly not being modeled correctly at this lead..which is why it’s doing what it is. 

 

So go PINCH one off yourself while your at it lol! 

 

 

Pinch me when the ull goes underneath us, until then....this is a minor event. 

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ahhh

January Rain

Does it rain @ Aspen during MET winter

I had a resident from Denver about 30 years ago.  He told me that it’s snow or no in winter.  Makes sense if you think about what would have to occur to make h85 +5 in a storm there.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pinch me when the ull goes underneath us, until then....this is a minor event. 

I feel like these events are a lot easier to follow than others, for those with limited knowledge.

In it’s most basic form... if it doesn’t go underneath us... we aren’t getting more than a light event.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I feel like these events are a lot easier to follow than others, for those with limited knowledge.

In it’s most basic form... if it doesn’t go underneath us... we aren’t getting more than a light event.

In SWFE, you can get a quick 6-10 with the 500 low in NY state. The real good events pass south with the mid level cyclonic flow, but you can do fine with a crappy H5 setup. A good antecedent airmass helps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

In SWFE, you can get a quick 6-10 with the 500 low in NY state. The real good events pass south with the mid level cyclonic flow, but you can do fine with a crappy H5 setup. A good antecedent airmass helps.

I think he means for a big dog...not 6-7".

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pinch me when the ull goes underneath us, until then....this is a minor event. 

We all were talking how nice the set up looked today...modeling didn’t follow suit this afternoon.  

 

I wasn’t disputing whether it’s a minor event, or otherwise.  I said this is the time many times where modeling gets goofy...that’s all.  

 

Pinch away.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We all were talking how nice the set up looked today...modeling didn’t follow suit this afternoon.  

 

I wasn’t disputing whether it’s a minor event, or otherwise.  I said this is the time many times where modeling gets goofy...that’s all.  

 

Pinch away.

 

 

Yea. No one should write it off yet.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I feel like these events are a lot easier to follow than others, for those with limited knowledge.

In it’s most basic form... if it doesn’t go underneath us... we aren’t getting more than a light event.

Pretty much, I’m sure there is more to it...but theres no southern sw here to drive a waa thump like march 17. So we rely on a big closed off ULL. it’s like starting a fire in the fireplace with a big cured piece of wood and nothing else. 

[Hoth]

I need DIT to divest before I get drawn in. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, snowgeek said:

These Miller B’s that form just to our south are precarious and if everything works out I feel like the models won’t catch on until inside 60 hours. It would be a shame with this set up to not have a sharper little nuke shortwave rounding the bend at the right time. I’d give my left but for a Jan 83 here in Albany lol, although my expectations are currently in check.


.

You want the left hook into EMA, as Will stated most don't want.  My Delmar upbringings know where you'd want this to track haha.  I'm pretty much in the same boat... in and up as one poster likes to say.

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I need DIT to divest before I get drawn in. 

Kevin can will this into something bigger, he has the power this year.

[dryslot]

There have been plenty of systems that have looked great at H5 but didn't translate to the surface, This could be on of them but its way to early to disregard, Its not going to take to much for this to change to a better outcome so sit tight.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There have been plenty of systems that have looked great at H5 but didn't translate to the surface, This could be on of them but its way to early to disregard, Its not going to take to much for this to change to a better outcome so sit tight.

I'd feel better at your latitude than here. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Kevin can will this into something bigger, he has the power this year.

It must have began with his adamant call in Oct and Nov that winter would rat. 

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he means for a big dog...not 6-7".

I took it as saying you can’t get more than a light event. Anyways hopefully it trends better.