40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 10 hours ago, weathafella said: Damned Scooter-some serious hatred for Judah. If the AO idea tied to snow cover is bogus, fine. Without advancing and testing out thoughts science doesn’t move forward. Unfortunately the sample size in wx is just not large enough for many issues to reliably correlate scientifically. Thankfully in medical research population studies have an n of tens of thousands making correlation a lot easier to accept. We simply don’t have enough data in wx to draw reliable conclusions yet-we haven’t been able to measure a lot of things until fairly recently limiting sample size and making long range forecasting pre-season not that accurate. Saying Judah doesn’t know anything is an unfair low blow. He doesn't have as firm of a grasp on seasonal forecasting as you would think for someone so esteemed...you can tell from reading his material. Strikes me as a research meteorologist by trade, whose most fruitful endeavor has drawn him out of his element (the lab) and into the forecasting field, which is not his speciality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 2;5-10 r thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: 2;5-10 r thereabouts. For return of OMW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Looks like the question is becoming exactly "when" not "if". GFS and Euro and CRS (been reading Ventrice) all pointing to a cold and snowy later winter. GEFS seemed to indicate we get back into it after the cutter next weekend. Euro seems to say it takes a few days longer. Ray ftw incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 26 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: For return of OMW? What’s OMW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Do we get a few days of intense gradient right near new england and some swfe action around Feb 2-7? That could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Looks like the question is becoming exactly "when" not "if". GFS and Euro and CRS (been reading Ventrice) all pointing to a cold and snowy later winter. GEFS seemed to indicate we get back into it after the cutter next weekend. Euro seems to say it takes a few days longer. Ray ftw incoming. Same for EPS-Super Bowl weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Same for EPS-Super Bowl weekend. So a couple a thaws sandwiched between cold and snow? Who could complain. We've too often seen the opposite in recent years (though, I've got to admit that we have seen some awesome snow and cold mixed in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Same for EPS-Super Bowl weekend. Could be very distracting to be tracking that weekend. I will be going to Philly. You may recall I used to be MarkinPhilly. https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/955269780218540032 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Could be very distracting to be tracking that weekend. I will be going to Philly. You may recall I used to be MarkinPhilly. https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/955269780218540032 Of course I recall! I’ve been around these boards going back to mirc and ne.weather days.g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 2 or 3 cutters to go through and then hopefully the EPS is right with that nasty ridge kissing the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1980’s pattern thru Feb 2nd. After that Katy bar the door winter roars back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 2 or 3 cutters to go through and then hopefully the EPS is right with that nasty ridge kissing the west coast. I'll do my best to pump up that ridge by driving my rental car back and forth along the 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s OMW? "OMW" might be a typo for PNA (PNA+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'll do my best to pump up that ridge by driving my rental car back and forth along the 101. Looks like a great day to ski SR SL with a couple of new fresh by mid day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Old Man Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like a great day to ski SR SL with a couple of new fresh by mid day Wintry appeal up there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 freezing drizzle here in Dover. think this is supposed to be light snow at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: freezing drizzle here in Dover. think this is supposed to be light snow at some point. Same at my house in N ORH county Driveway and road were black ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 2 or 3 cutters to go through and then hopefully the EPS is right with that nasty ridge kissing the west coast. aren't the GEFS bringing it a bit quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 so what's the history with this Judah person? i frankly have dodged a lot of that clatter; i figured presumably (at risk..) that he was another Joe "toss the most dramatic call against the wall" Bastardi, and then rely on the hoi polloi's inability to substantively grade his forecasts because they are caught up in the specter of the 'big storm' ... to come off as some sort of gushing "jenius" and so have avoided it. but i'm just curious what he (or anyone for that matter) said about 2015 ... I could go out and google it but if anyone cares to paraphrase ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: freezing drizzle here in Dover. think this is supposed to be light snow at some point. By early afternoon the saturation should be enough that we get some steady precip, probably light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: By early afternoon the saturation should be enough that we get some steady precip, probably light snow. Yea. Evening commute, and especially tomorrow am's commute looks nasty.... We lucked out this morning by a degree or two. Temp was 33/34 with Td around freezing. But you can see and feel the CAD drain already, and we are probably at or close to freezing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 2 or 3 cutters to go through and then hopefully the EPS is right with that nasty ridge kissing the west coast. These cutters are barely verifying. Look at next weekend. The storm went from a cutter to a whiff now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: These cutters are barely verifying. Look at next weekend. The storm went from a cutter to a whiff now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: These cutters are barely verifying. Look at next weekend. The storm went from a cutter to a whiff now. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: These cutters are barely verifying. Look at next weekend. The storm went from a cutter to a whiff now. That sort of led to less cold though. The difference in how deep that cold press was before the final cutting system has dramatically reduced the last 2 model cycles and they’ve weakened the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: ?? Look at the models for next weekend Whiff It was modeled a huge cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Look at the models for next weekend Whiff It was modeled a huge cutter So we probably shouldn't lock in the Miller A over ACK that the GFS shows for Superbowl Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 The CFS is slowly losing the SER next month too. This again could result in support in suppression I think if the PV drops further south. The GFS and CFS have really wanted that SER in the longer range whenever the -EPO has built in but it’s generally never verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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