Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You resonded to my regionwide post. Some stats for your memory. Days with over an inch and total snow 94 and 03 Days over an inch cover 03 94 Snow 94 Snow 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Some stats for your memory. Days with over an inch and total snow 94 and 03 Days over an inch cover 03 94 Snow 94 Snow 03 Effing Foster-Gloucester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Effing Foster-Gloucester. When I moved up here from Westerly in Oct 02 I couldn't wait to see if the myth was true, man did I pick a great winter to move in. Seriously spoiled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Some stats for your memory. Days with over an inch and total snow 94 and 03 Days over an inch cover 03 94 Snow 94 Snow 03 lol. There are stats for everything. Where do you find this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Effing Foster-Gloucester. 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: When I moved up here from Westerly in Oct 02 I couldn't wait to see if the myth was true, man did I pick a great winter to move in. Seriously spoiled Some people just don't believe the legend. A span of 60 or so miles and there is 70 day difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Not for nothin’ but we’ve had a good number of snow cover days this winter at least imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: lol. There are stats for everything. Where do you find this stuff? http://scacis.rcc-acis.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 The -NAO has been such voodoo. I’m so glad I didn’t buy into that. I almost wonder if Judah should do some sort of correlation to the Pacific and his index. Just for the hell of it. But seeing he doesn’t know his azz from his elbow when it comes to weather, he probably won’t. He has a PhD though...good for him...he must be wicked smaht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 40's is not a big thaw like many said and colder wed this thur and friday for sne area . like always to many give up on winter all the time when warms up little . i know feb and march will not be warm and bring the big ones to sne area . Late next week highs in 20's on thurs for sne area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The -NAO has been such voodoo. I’m so glad I didn’t buy into that. I almost wonder if Judah should do some sort of correlation to the Pacific and his index. Just for the hell of it. But seeing he doesn’t know his azz from his elbow when it comes to weather, he probably won’t. He has a PhD though...good for him...he must be wicked smaht. PhD or not ... -EPO is the primary cold loading pattern for N/A... Whatever anyone says or tries to hypothesis after the fact, if what they espouse/convey deviates from that in any way shape or form, they are wrong. The -NAO is voodoo though? I'm not sure I get your meaning entirely .. .but I suspect I agree more so than not I used to come in here and have rant battles with you all over the years ... Folks either argued with symbolism, or ignored .. .but the NAO was overrated, over used, and not really understood, and consequently, hobbyists and to a large degree Mets in general were vastly too reliant upon it... The history there,... It was popularized in the 1990s by some astutely intoned papers that may or may not have been statistically rooted (not sure), therefore, ...giving the appeal of being veracious. One way or the other though, it was too sexy for the world to resist, and the world jumped on it as this big mysterious all governing power over eastern North American, and western European winter circulations ...more importantly, distribution/frequency of negative versus positive anomalies in temperatures therein. The entire "art" of teleconnector monitoring and modulation, however, was also too new, and who knew that gee... ALL of them might be important! In fact, some more so than others. Some of that is certainly true about the NAO... but, the index is more of a mode enforcer on storm tracks than it is on temperatures, even though it's temperature signature is not zero by any means. Even Heather A.s statistical science pegged the modalities of the PNA as more important than the changing NAO - her conclusions/summaries and papers are clear in that regard. Voodoo may be a bit harsh though. Just from my own experience over the last 30 years of being cognizant of this crap... the NAO should be thought of as helping to maintain cool or warm departures; where contrasting, the EPO is more rooted causality-wise in how the Pac relay into N/A, forces wave orientation and therein, cold conveyor establishment versus abatement of that. If the -EPO dumps a ton in, ... then the NAO crashes, a block in the NW Atlantic Basin may trigger a coupled negative anomaly over NE Ontario, and that would then "grab" cold air and send down our way with startling proficiency at that. We used to call that the "Montreal Express" haven't heard that expression in years... we haven't had many -NAO's either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 some of the meso models have what looks like a mini cold tuck type deal Monday night. wrf-arw is by far the most aggressive with it .. has temps falling into the MU 20s for a lot of eastern / central Mass. Maybe something to keep an eye on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: PhD or not ... -EPO is the primary cold loading pattern for N/A... Whatever anyone says or tries to hypothesis after the fact, if what they espouse/convey deviates from that in any way shape or form, they are wrong. The -NAO is voodoo though? I'm not sure I get your meaning entirely .. .but I suspect I agree more so than not I used to come in here and have rant battles with you all over the years ... Folks either argued with symbolism, or ignored .. .but the NAO was overrated, over used, and not really understood, and consequently, hobbyists and to a large degree Mets in general were vastly too reliant upon it... The history there,... It was popularized in the 1990s by some astutely intoned papers that may or may not have been statistically rooted (not sure), therefore, ...giving the appeal of being veracious. One way or the other though, it was too sexy for the world to resist, and the world jumped on it as this big mysterious all governing power over eastern North American, and western European winter circulations ...more importantly, distribution/frequency of negative versus positive anomalies in temperatures therein. The entire "art" of teleconnector monitoring and modulation, however, was also too new, and who knew that gee... ALL of them might be important! In fact, some more so than others. Some of that is certainly true about the NAO... but, the index is more of a mode enforcer on storm tracks than it is on temperatures, even though it's temperature signature is not zero by any means. Even Heather A.s statistical science pegged the modalities of the PNA as more important than the changing NAO - her conclusions/summaries and papers are clear in that regard. Voodoo may be a bit harsh though. Just from my own experience over the last 30 years of being cognizant of this crap... the NAO should be thought of as helping to maintain cool or warm departures; where contrasting, the EPO is more rooted causality-wise in how the Pac relay into N/A, forces wave orientation and therein, cold conveyor establishment versus abatement of that. If the -EPO dumps a ton in, ... then the NAO crashes, a block in the NW Atlantic Basin may trigger a coupled negative anomaly over NE Ontario, and that would then "grab" cold air and send down our way with startling proficiency at that. We used to call that the "Montreal Express" haven't heard that expression in years... we haven't had many -NAO's either. When I mean voodoo I mean it’s been non-existent. Some have proposed over the last few years that this will be it! This is the year for the -NAO. And for whatever reason it had failed to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: some of the meso models have what looks like a mini cold tuck type deal Monday night. wrf-arw is by far the most aggressive with it .. has temps falling into the MU 20s for a lot of eastern / central Mass. Maybe something to keep an eye on? Yes they have. Interior MA look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 26 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: some of the meso models have what looks like a mini cold tuck type deal Monday night. wrf-arw is by far the most aggressive with it .. has temps falling into the MU 20s for a lot of eastern / central Mass. Maybe something to keep an eye on? Mmm yes... should keep an eye on that, because I just got done musing how cool solutions for this thing have taken flight - perfect reason to do so.. haha. Yeah, those tuck behaviors, can't discount those. They seem to operate on a different set of physical parameters than the kinematics of the synoptics over top. It's really the planetary interface with the lower atmosphere - I suspect - that's the primary trigger there; although the synoptics play an indirect roll. That probably sounds backwards, but the Earth's topographical interface with the lower boundary layer and mass-balancing "fights" the environmental argument in some scenarios. Tucking is one such scenario. The standard stuff need not apply... Like, heights may be rising and/or higher more so than modeled, which in classical tenths should close the door on front penetration but that sort of lower 200 mb cold thing rolling SW under the environment flow mean just that... It's not part of the governing environmental flow once that gets going. It doesn't give a rat's azz what the heights above are doing... When that low level slosh back happens it's essentially disconnected from what's going on roughly from the boundary-pause and higher. If the planetary surface around here was totally smooth and devoid of elevation clear to the Rockies, there would be no 'tucking' ... It's purely because there is a 'void' east of the elevation mean that aligns SW-NE ... west of here. This region stagnates... I've actually seen two synoptic changes roll over the top of a BD air mass that got stranded in the spring. If the arriving synoptics can't scour it out... may as well be smog in an l.a. basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be nice to get a semi-sustained -NAO for once. Can't seem to buy one. We've been relying on the pacific so much. We had that brief one in late November for about 7-10 days. That's really been it. Seems like this will basically be the 5th winter in a row where we are almost exclusively reliant on the pacific. Last time we didn't was 2012-2013. Luckily the pacific is been very cooperative for the most part, but we get a lot of these cutter type patterns when it breaks down whereas if we had a solid -NAO, you'd force some more wintry solutions. Talked about this yesterday in the NYC forum, but I read that the predominant ++NAO we’ve been seeing for the last several winters in a row is being caused by both the AMO and geomag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Talked about this yesterday in the NYC forum, but I read that the predominant ++NAO we’ve been seeing for the last several winters in a row is being caused by both the AMO and geomag The AMO really isn’t yet into the cold phase. I’m not sure what the cause is. It’s maybe more connected to cold waters near Greenland and Iceland as a result of the melting ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Damned Scooter-some serious hatred for Judah. If the AO idea tied to snow cover is bogus, fine. Without advancing and testing out thoughts science doesn’t move forward. Unfortunately the sample size in wx is just not large enough for many issues to reliably correlate scientifically. Thankfully in medical research population studies have an n of tens of thousands making correlation a lot easier to accept. We simply don’t have enough data in wx to draw reliable conclusions yet-we haven’t been able to measure a lot of things until fairly recently limiting sample size and making long range forecasting pre-season not that accurate. Saying Judah doesn’t know anything is an unfair low blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Damned Scooter-some serious hatred for Judah. If the AO idea tied to snow cover is bogus, fine. Without advancing and testing out thoughts science doesn’t move forward. Unfortunately the sample size in wx is just not large enough for many issues to reliably correlate scientifically. Thankfully in medical research population studies have an n of tens of thousands making correlation a lot easier to accept. We simply don’t have enough data in wx to draw reliable conclusions yet-we haven’t been able to measure a lot of things until fairly recently limiting sample size and making long range forecasting pre-season not that accurate. Saying Judah doesn’t know anything is an unfair low blow. This is the guy who took credit being right for the wrong reason back in 2015. That’s a fraud plain and simple in the science community. I see his tweets. He comes across as not understanding simple things like ENSO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This is the guy who took credit being right for the wrong reason back in 2015. That’s a fraud plain and simple in the science community. I see his tweets. He comes across as not understanding simple things like ENSO etc. He was calling for a record cold winter in the east back in 2015 with a raging super El Niño in place. Easiest forecast ever when you have an utterly overwhelming ENSO signal like that, you definitely don’t think cold winter at that point. You knew we were screwed that winter when region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November....well, at least some people did I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 RGEM wants to drown CT & W MA with Mon/Tues system. That would be trouble for rivers. We drove along Rt 2 from Charlemont to Greenfield today and the banks of the Deerfield River are piled with 1000lb ice blocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: RGEM wants to drown CT & W MA with Mon/Tues system. That would be trouble for rivers. We drove along Rt 2 from Charlemont to Greenfield today and the banks of the Deerfield River are piled with 1000lb ice blocks. Yeah I went down to the Connecticut river the other day and could not believe the amount of ice blocks loaded up on the meandering corners. Ive never seen anything like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Watch the 29 -30 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Been out of touch the last few days. When is winter (as in cold with significant possibilities for some good snow) coming back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Been out of touch the last few days. When is winter (as in cold with significant possibilities for some good snow) coming back? Most say close the curtains until February 5 but we may have some chances before that just no sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: This is the guy who took credit being right for the wrong reason back in 2015. That’s a fraud plain and simple in the science community. I see his tweets. He comes across as not understanding simple things like ENSO etc. That bothered me quite a bit too. I think it was in May 2015 when he was interviewed by CWG in DC and he took full credit for correctly predicting extreme winter wx in the east...with the AO being strongly positive all 3 months of met winter... That turned me off for good. His blog was full of fail all winter long but then he takes full credit. You can't have it both ways. Right for the wrong reasons will never sit well with me. I hate "force fitting" with long range forecasts. It happens all the time too with other long rangers. Being humble and admitting the basis for your forecast failed even though the numbers look good is the right way to do it. Eat some humble pie and tell the damn truth. It's not that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Watch the 29 -30 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That bothered me quite a bit too. I think it was in May 2015 when he was interviewed by CWG in DC and he took full credit for correctly predicting extreme winter wx in the east...with the AO bring strongly positive all 3 months of met winter... That turned me off for good. His blog was full of fail all winter long but then he takes full credit. You can't have it both ways. Right for the wrong reasons will never sit well with me. I hate "force fitting" with long range forecasts. It happens all the time too with other long rangers. Being humble and admitting the basis for your forecast failed even though the numbers look good is the right way to do it. Eat some humble pie and tell the damn truth. It's not that hard. Yes. He’s a fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Down to 29F here, is there a freezing rain risk for tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Nice easterly fetch snow tomorrow in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: That bothered me quite a bit too. I think it was in May 2015 when he was interviewed by CWG in DC and he took full credit for correctly predicting extreme winter wx in the east...with the AO being strongly positive all 3 months of met winter... That turned me off for good. His blog was full of fail all winter long but then he takes full credit. You can't have it both ways. Right for the wrong reasons will never sit well with me. I hate "force fitting" with long range forecasts. It happens all the time too with other long rangers. Being humble and admitting the basis for your forecast failed even though the numbers look good is the right way to do it. Eat some humble pie and tell the damn truth. It's not that hard. That was my first outlook...I got some props for calling a big winter and the blizzard, but I was right for wrong reason, too. I def. hammered away the point in the post mortem. I still think there is some merit to correctly calling a blocky, severe winter, but you need to be honest and transparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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