Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 on the other side... the GGEM doesn't really bring the boundary south of the NH border before bouncing it back N... Not the more reliable source? no but... ironically, that solution might fit the wilful solution better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: just offering some deeper analysis... fwiw: I think Will hit it on the button there with the strength of the WAA. It may be that it's ... on the order of +3 SD ... where contrasting these sort of lead side highs may normally only contend with +1 or +1.5 type erosion... The latter occurrence means the lower tropospheric viscosity wins out ...colder solutions correct/prevail and you ice for a longer time...occlude and then spike after cold fropa before more meaningful CAA knocks you back. That sort of paradigm may not work as well if said WAA is much stronger. But I'm not sure precisely of that WAA strength - either way... I think he's right that the mechanics there are stronger then normal ...relative to this kind of set up. It then gives the "affect" when looking at it like the model's doing more than it should to move that high out of the way. tedious I know ... I understand about the heights and so forth, but these lower level cold air masses behavior "disconnected" there ... there's other environmental feed-backs playing into that and the general notion that the boundary went well SW and the pressure pattern is there... that's CAD Well that’s what I said yesterday and today regarding the flow off the deck. It’s strong from the SW meaning strong WAA. Put it all together, sucky CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Through 1/19 south to north: BDL: -5.8 PVD: -3.8 ORH: -4.2 BOS: -4.4 Given the milder pattern we’ll lose some negative but it won’t be wiped thanks to enough cold days also. That would make 3 straight bn. Regarding the meaningful pattern flip, y thoughts are 2/5-10 more likely 2/10-ushered by KU as Steve eats birthday cake? Yeah the first few days of Feb the change starts and 2nd week it’s locked in. All the long range guys have that scenario and it makes sense. Feb 5th or so we rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 I just saw two squirrels humping. Sping is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just saw two squirrels humping. Sping is coming. Spring isn't the only thing that will be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just saw two squirrels humping. Sping is coming. Any busted nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just saw two squirrels humping. Sping is coming. Were they calling my name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Just erase packs to the border and start over early Feb. Nothing else you can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Mahk Twain? I'm just a simple truth teller... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Any busted nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just erase packs to the border and start over early Feb. Nothing else you can do Awful. I take back what I said last week about being cool about the thaw, or whatever b.s. I spewed. This is going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Downstream side of the wave is definitely featuring higher heights than modeled. Congrats on the 33 F rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Downstream side of the wave is definitely featuring higher heights than modeled. Congrats on the 33 F rain? suddenly the other models must bow to the GGEM frontal position too ... huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Awful. I take back what I said last week about being cool about the thaw, or whatever b.s. I spewed. This is going to suck. Lolz....nice to see folks admitting they hate winter getting F’ed up by thaws and rainers.....it may be a normal thing but expecting it doesn’t make me hate it less.....I wonder what the equivalent departure in summer would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 20 hours ago, powderfreak said: How many times have you hit 50"+? I wasn't necessarily talking peak depths but just more a place that's "in the zone" for multiple storm cycles so you end up averaging like 3-5" per day over like a multiweek period. Probably for a few hours on 2/23/09, immediately after 24.5" landed atop a solid 27" pack, but by my 9 PM obs time it was down to 49", still my highest bs here. Ft. Kent gGot up to 54" in early March 1977. Touched 60" for a few hours in early Feb 1984 and 6 days 50+ before a two week thaw chopped it to 36" by late month. Then the 26.5" atop 42" pack on 3/14-15 brought it to 65", tallest I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Tallest pack in ORH I've ever seen is still march 2001 at 47 inches. We didn't beat it in 2015 but came close...I think 42-43" in 2015. But the 2001 pack was so much more impressive because of the water content. We flirted with 40" in 2011 as well but never quite got there. I peaked at 38 inches in early February 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Lolz....nice to see folks admitting they hate winter getting F’ed up by thaws and rainers.....it may be a normal thing but expecting it doesn’t make me hate it less.....I wonder what the equivalent departure in summer would be? Funny you should mention that... I was just cursory glancing over the Euro freebie's at PSU thinking how we may never in our lifetimes see that D3 work out that way in April or May... Well, as to the question itself... not sure if we can qualify matters the following way, but... at 55 (present number of inches stuffed up winter enthusiast butts) degrees, that's on average ~ 20 f above normal...more so over southern NH and less so down near the SW tip of CT... So, the polar date around the 20th of July having an average temperature of say 83 F ... that simple arithmetic would yield a 103 F for a high today. Not bad... right up near a top tier big heat day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Franklin Falls Dam coop had a 56” pack in Feb 69...highest I’ve seen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Funny you should mention that... I was just cursory glancing over the Euro freebie's at PSU thinking how we may never in our lifetimes see that D3 work out that way in April or May... Well, as to the question itself... not sure if we can qualify matters the following way, but... at 55 (present number of inches stuffed up winter enthusiast butts) degrees, that's on average ~ 20 f above normal...more so over southern NH and less so down near the SW tip of CT... So, the polar date around the 20th of July having an average temperature of say 83 F ... that simple arithmetic would yield a 103 F for a high today. Not bad... right up near a top tier big heat day... I think you have to compare with sigmas rather than actual raw departures. So if any particular day this Jan hits +4SD you’d compare it to a +4SD in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Funny you should mention that... I was just cursory glancing over the Euro freebie's at PSU thinking how we may never in our lifetimes see that D3 work out that way in April or May... Well, as to the question itself... not sure if we can qualify matters the following way, but... at 55 (present number of inches stuffed up winter enthusiast butts) degrees, that's on average ~ 20 f above normal...more so over southern NH and less so down near the SW tip of CT... So, the polar date around the 20th of July having an average temperature of say 83 F ... that simple arithmetic would yield a 103 F for a high today. Not bad... right up near a top tier big heat day... Yeah. Winter gets more extremes than summer in terms of departures. Much higher standard deviation in both daily and monthly temps in the winters. Not surprising though since our thermal gradients in winter are so much stronger than in the warm season. Like a -30 departure in mid July would be a high in the upper 40s/lower 50s in SNE. That's never happened in mid July. Or a plus 30 would be 110-115F. Also never happened in SNE. But in winter we will see those departures sometimes. Like a high of 63 mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 was that after that "100 hour storm" or was that a different year. hey folks... you wanted evidence of a locked pattern? Look at the D3 Euro then the D9 ...those two days are almost indistinguishable from another. talks about rinse repeat. But at least D10 shows signs of change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 71 inches otg in Feb 2001 in st. Johns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think you have to compare with sigmas rather than actual raw departures. So if any particular day this Jan hits +4SD you’d compare it to a +4SD in July. Oh sure .. I'm just spit ballin' to commiserate ... SD is definitely more clad, agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Franklin Falls Dam coop had a 56” pack in Feb 69...highest I’ve seen here. Farmington reached 84" by the end of that 43" storm. 2nd is 56" twice, in 1971 and 1993. In '93 they had "T" in late Jan, then got 51" in Feb and 46" in March, touching 56 in mid month. Outside of Pinkham Notch, which built up to 164" at the end of getting 77" in the late Feb 1969 dump, I've not found a non-mountain pack in New England taller than that 84". (Mansfield and Jay have each topped 100".) Closest to 84 might be Downeast Maine in 2015. Edit: Those monster dumps in 1969 were indeed from the hundred hour storm. Pinkham measured something like 21"/24.5"/27"/4.5" over its 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 You know the pattern sucks balls when everyone is chatting about the legendary snowpack of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Farmington reached 84" by the end of that 43" storm. 2nd is 56" twice, in 1971 and 1993. In '93 they had "T" in late Jan, then got 51" in Feb and 46" in March, touching 56 in mid month. Outside of Pinkham Notch, which built up to 164" at the end of getting 77" in the late Feb 1969 dump, I've not found a non-mountain pack in New England taller than that 84". (Mansfield and Jay have each topped 100".) Closest to 84 might be Downeast Maine in 2015. Unless maybe you want to include places like Chimney Pond and Hermit Lake/Harvard Cabin. Not quite mountain, but definitely not where the flatlanders live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: You know the pattern sucks balls when everyone is chatting about the legendary snowpack of old. I’ve looked back at my pics from 2015 now for the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Brutal, having to reminisce of the good ole days just to get us by....On to black history month to save the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Unless maybe you want to include places like Chimney Pond and Hermit Lake/Harvard Cabin. Not quite mountain, but definitely not where the flatlanders live. I'd rule out Chimney Pond as "non-mountain"; it's more than a thousand feet higher than the obs location at Jay Peak. (Are any depth records kept at either of those 2 places?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 71 inches otg in Feb 2001 in st. Johns. I remember that ... I was living in Waltham Massachusetts at the time, and was doing the typical bar-fly thing I used to do back in those days, down at the "Mad Raven" it was called... Not sure how it came up but this dude was there from there. Yeah, I'm pretty sure he said St John's, but it definitely was Nova Scotia. He actually had wallet photos, three of them. One was the front of his parent's house, ...tented over by snow. I schit you not. The driveway was bermed by these 15' glacial walls from on-going clearance and maintenance, the end of which just sort of merged with the snow that was laterally encasing the roof from side to side. Weirdest visage... I remember thinking, ...beyond what are the odds that some random stranger in a pub down on Rt 20 in Waltham would actually have those photos, but wondering if something like that could ever happen in SNE... I think of both locations as sort of sticking out and like sore thumbs in wait of an epic winter - but obviously, given to latitude, more like that would occur up there. I've seen three winters around here that by circumstance of local climate are "epic" by these standards. 1993-1994, 1995-1996, and 2014-2015 ... everything thing else argues for seeding. I wasn't around here in 1978 but ...from the sounds of it, that year was more about epicosity in the singular event(s) rather than totality - no offense intended. Anyway, I remember that photo well, as well as another looking down the length of a two-lane road with similar 15 to 20' walls on either side. Was that year some kind of greatest ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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