Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

[512high]

6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

There's a band of light WAA precip Monday/Monday night that still could be frozen right into interior SNE and cause a few issues. 

I'm skeptical of the warm front blowing into CNE Tuesday, but I do think most make it above freezing outside of the main CAD regions by the time the heavy batch of precip moves in. 

 

This plan old *ucks.....I hope Feb. reloads cold and snow,hell bring it into March,

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

This plan old *ucks.....I hope Feb. reloads cold and snow,hell bring it into March,

enjoy it .....it's the only weather you've got.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, jbenedet said:

NAM shows significant low level CAD drain down to the southern Apps on Monday morning. 

If you look at the 200mb jet structure on the GFS, I think it argues for a KU next week.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you look at the 200mb jet structure on the GFS, I think it argues for a KU next week.

More like K-Y.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More like K-Y.

[mahk_webstah]

Looks like more than half at least will be frozen up here.  We retain before the rains to maine.  In a couple weeks we regain, all the way down the coastal plain.  But tween then and now there will be pain, even in the higher terrain.  And many will complain. And the mets will explain.  And then we'll all be on the train.

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More like K-Y.

Who will you make out with if there's a KU?

[OceanStWx]

GEFS and EPS sensitivity both agree we want to be seeing more ridging ahead of the wave at 00z tonight to see cooler scenarios play out. May not save the 33 degree rain at ORH, but it will help powderfreak and his picnic tables.

Clustering is dominated by EPS members doing this, but there is a handful of CMC and GEFS also joining that party. The best results are definitely those that pump up the ridging ahead of the wave (also possibly due to earlier amplification of that wave). 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looks like more than half at least will be frozen up here.  We retain before the rains to maine.  In a couple weeks we regain, all the way down the coastal plain.  But tween then and now there will be pain, even in the higher terrain.  And many will complain. And the mets will explain.  And then we'll all be on the train.

Half???

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Half???

I said at least half.  3/4?  90% ?  Purely from reading GYX.  none?

[ORH_wxman]

Barring a reversal of trends for Monday/Tuesday....close the shades until early February. Maybe something sneaks up on us before that but it looks mostly like a combo of 1980s cutter pattern and 2012 until the PAC reshuffles...which it looks like it will. 

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Barring a reversal of trends for Monday/Tuesday....close the shades until early February. Maybe something sneaks up on us before that but it looks mostly like a combo of 1980s cutter pattern and 2012 until the PAC reshuffles...which it looks like it will. 

Posted that last week amidst lol’s and ridicule . Until Feb 3, when deep winter resumes, folks should find other hobbies.

[dendrite]

31 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I said at least half.  3/4?  90% ?  Purely from reading GYX.  none?

Unless you’re counting zr as frozen I don’t see much snow nor sleet. But yeah, we may not warm until the cold fropa.

[CoastalWx]

50 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looks like more than half at least will be frozen up here.  We retain before the rains to maine.  In a couple weeks we regain, all the way down the coastal plain.  But tween then and now there will be pain, even in the higher terrain.  And many will complain. And the mets will explain.  And then we'll all be on the train.

Mahk Twain?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Posted that last week amidst lol’s and ridicule . Until Feb 3, when deep winter resumes, folks should find other hobbies.

I see now you have Feb 3. Although it may be a bit later than that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Everyone's surely got an opinion as to what's going on in the weather world, but from what I'm seeing, the Monday Tuesday ordeal is unusual.

It's unusual because typically ... polar high pressure building into central/eastern Ontario in the evolution depicted by ... pretty much all prognostic sourcing, wins in dictating the lower troposphere. The models refuse to do so in this case; at least are somehow mustering the physics to limit that result so far as to scratch heads in wonder if the very laws of fluid mechanics have just been altered by the cosmos. My goodness!

The Euro from 00z (oper.) is nothing shy of bizarre relative to that discussion point.  It not only builds the high into said regions, but paints its frontal tapestry sagging SW of even NYC ... showing a pressure pattern at 48 hours that is not only indicative of CAD, but CAD that is back-built/anchored by said polar high.  Next chart?  Blasts the low pressure straight through the high and warm sectors clear to Concord NH just 24 hours later...

I have never seen a warm front usurp the viscosity of a polar high (..throw in one situated over a snow pack if you must..) as liberally as that evolution implies.  Fascinating...

 

[CoastalWx]

It’s because the antecedent airmass blows. Not only do you have to flush that out, you need to replace it with polar air. This isn’t the typical high sort of moving  north of caribou and replacing it there. It’s not really branching in enough being near Hudson Bay.  You want it to nose in north of Maine and press down which this is not. Also, winds just off the deck are increasing from the SW. That’s not helping. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Barring a reversal of trends for Monday/Tuesday....close the shades until early February. Maybe something sneaks up on us before that but it looks mostly like a combo of 1980s cutter pattern and 2012 until the PAC reshuffles...which it looks like it will. 

Exactly.

AWT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s because the antecedent airmass blows. Not only do you have to flush that out, you need to replace it with polar air. This isn’t the typical high sort of moving  north of caribou and replacing it there. It’s not really branching in enough being near Hudson Bay.  You want it to nose in north of Maine and press down which this is not. Also, winds just off the deck are increasing from the SW. That’s not helping. 

Its not a sneaky scooter sprawler

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see now you have Feb 3. Although it may be a bit later than that. 

More like mid Feb.

Not to say we wont steal an event before that, but shouldn't be to big.

I'm very comfortable saying this.

Confidence high.

[Typhoon Tip]

So what's killing it for winter enthusiasts is clearly that Kamchatka mega ridge and tilted/bad example of "REX" configuration over the far N/NW Pacific Basin and overlap region of the Siberian Peninsula. 

That block is a ...sort of "west based" -EPO ... and it should really be construed that way, because when we utilize the GEFs ..the West Pac Oscillation is very negative now; it comes down to simply where the block sets up.  We are thus, fulfilling the EPO era rather nicely in a very insidious way (we are presently in some sort of intra decadal -EPO thing...)

It is also progged to remain that way and even strengthen in that regard before "possibly" weakening somewhere out there amid week two.  Man, what a whopper that thing is... utterly dictating the distribution of anomalies both local to its influence, and transitively abroad as the hemisphere et al mass-fields align and distribute to make way for its life-cycle. 

One such aligning is the wave spacing that subtends downs stream...

is totally f-up and bad for winter enthusiasts. 

Which, ..enters some interesting contention (possibly).  That verkokte orientation is present in both the operational Euro and GFS means, over the next seven to ten days. However.. the wave lengths are very unusually shortened for a time of the year when they should really be getting about as long as they ever will in the perennial cycle therein. 

Folks have been mentioning that they think the Pacific is going to reshuffle ... well, spreading that wave length (for one...) could certainly be an example of that taking place. And I suggest...argue that it has to.  That configuration is not stable... That unstable construct is thus lending to a wave distribution down stream that is seriously bending over the winter enthusiast hopes and dreams ... You got troughs and ridges subsequently aligning pretty much in all the wrong places with near precision in doing so, in the modeling. 

But ...as I implied, unstable patterns don't last "as long" ... The type of anomaly (positive) being depicted up there over that region is so extreme that it simply cannot be maintained... and it may be the the models won't really begin to detect much else until it actually begins to weaken in the initializations. Which as others alluded, may take a while .. or seem to

Not that anyone asks... but I say fug-it... Lets blast the temperatures to 60 and really make this winter about two distinct novels.  We can reset the dial entirely than perhaps recoupe on emotional losses from say... Feb 7.34 to March 18.57 ....

 

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not a sneaky scooter sprawler

Sounds like something that could get you through the dark days of winter.

[CoastalWx]

Kamkhaka ridge.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Sounds like something that could get you through the dark days of winter.

Sprawled out like a starfish.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s because the antecedent airmass blows. Not only do you have to flush that out, you need to replace it with polar air. This isn’t the typical high sort of moving  north of caribou and replacing it there. It’s not really branching in enough being near Hudson Bay.  You want it to nose in north of Maine and press down which this is not. Also, winds just off the deck are increasing from the SW. That’s not helping. 

Meh... i've seen colder solution pan out from less curved pressure pattern ...the latter of which "should be" sufficient...  Besides, the high pressure in question has a 1036 mb node between H.B and Maine, and the next day, the Euro has no trace of it... That evolution is suspect.  But, perhaps there are some weird layers going on there...

It almost appears to me that the actual temperature of the atmosphere in the CAD region that sets up is not there, either.  That's also adding to that mystery some.  It's got enough higher pressure on the N side of the boundary, yet it is as though the models consider the air mass as less dense despite it -haha. 

man, this winter will stop and nothing to find ways to stab butts.

Kidding of course, but some now-casting probably will offset even the Euro's wilful bullying into the position of that high.

[ORH_wxman]

The 2008 ice storm had kind of a garbage antecedent airmass. It can be done. This one just seems to have too much warm conveyor mechanics to our west that blows up what marginal polar airmass we manage to achieve. Synoptically, I'd agree that it's pretty weird to have it blow up that much...and it may yet correct further SE...but it prob won't help most of us anyway even if it did. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 2008 ice storm had kind of a garbage antecedent airmass. It can be done. This one just seems to have too much warm conveyor mechanics to our west that blows up what marginal polar airmass we manage to achieve. Synoptically, I'd agree that it's pretty weird to have it blow up that much...and it may yet correct further SE...but it prob won't help most of us anyway even if it did. 

This is for fun:

But it depends on one's perspective... If they really really want it to be 34.3 F while succeeding in proving the warm frontal position also still wrong ...they'll probably score huge here - there's gotta be someone out there that wants to see/experience that particular nuance   

My guess is it's Ray...  secretly twiddling his mustache ..."perfect, my plan to succeed the worst weather imaginable on the planet outside a comet ending life as we know it is almost complete..."

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh... i've seen colder solution pan out from less curved pressure pattern ...the latter of which "should be" sufficient...  Besides, the high pressure in question has a 1036 mb node between H.B and Maine, and the next day, the Euro has no trace of it... That evolution is suspect.  But, perhaps there are some weird layers going on there...

It almost appears to me that the actual temperature of the atmosphere in the CAD region that sets up is not there, either.  That's also adding to that mystery some.  It's got enough higher pressure on the N side of the boundary, yet it is as though the models consider the air mass as less dense despite it -haha. 

man, this winter will stop and nothing to find ways to stab butts.

Kidding of course, but some now-casting probably will offset even the Euro's wilful bullying into the position of that high.

I guess to me it makes sense. I’m not shocked at what it’s doing. The whole thing is not a good setup. No good PV really pressing south either. The heights are actually rising and we lack the push from the north. That’s a fail right there for good CAD. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess to me it makes sense. I’m not shocked at what it’s doing. The whole thing is not a good setup. No good PV really pressing south either. The heights are actually rising and we lack the push from the north. That’s a fail right there for good CAD. 

just offering some deeper analysis...  fwiw:  I think Will hit it on the button there with the strength of the WAA.  It may be that it's ... on the order of +3 SD ... where contrasting these sort of lead side highs may normally only contend with +1 or +1.5 type erosion... The latter occurrence means the lower tropospheric viscosity wins out ...colder solutions correct/prevail and you ice for a longer time...occlude and then spike after cold fropa before more meaningful CAA knocks you back.

That sort of paradigm may not work as well if said WAA is much stronger.  But I'm not sure precisely of that WAA strength - either way... I think he's right that the mechanics there are stronger then normal ...relative to this kind of set up.  It then gives the "affect" when looking at it like the model's doing more than it should to move that high out of the way.

tedious I know ... I understand about the heights and so forth, but these lower level cold air masses behavior "disconnected" there ... there's other environmental feed-backs playing into that and the general notion that the boundary went well SW and the pressure pattern is there...  that's CAD

[weathafella]

Through 1/19 south to north:

 

BDL:  -5.8

PVD: -3.8

ORH: -4.2

BOS:  -4.4

 

Given the milder pattern we’ll lose some negative but it won’t be wiped thanks to enough cold days also.  That would make 3 straight bn months.

 

Regarding the meaningful pattern flip, my thoughts are 2/5-10 more likely 2/10-ushered by KU as Steve eats birthday cake?