ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 At least it looks like the PAC is trying to shake up....may need to be patient and get into the Feb 5-10 timeframe, but it def looks like a reload is coming at some point. We first reload the North American PV cold with the big WPO block that starts to develop next weekend and beyond and the PV just N of Hudson bay strengthens big time. Then we slowly try and build heights into the GOA and hopefully PNA region a little later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hazey said: We be in trouble. Gotta hope for a late season turnaround and comeback. 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Skeletons in full snowmobile dress slumped over steering wheels. Goggles still on We may never be witness to this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We may never be witness to this again Not in yours or my lifetime no. That was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 What year is that pic from Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What year is that pic from Kevin? Ask Ginx, but I think it was 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not in yours or my lifetime no. That was it Ya never say never. I was reading Wills link to the Dec 2012 storm, you posted, I am a glass half full kind of guy. What happened? Has life soured you or is it excessive IPAs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ya never say never. I was reading Wills link to the Dec 2012 storm, you posted, I am a glass half full kind of guy. What happened? Has life soured you or is it excessive IPAs? Just down and out with the pattern next 3+ weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Those snow banks will happen again. Even if you have steal your neighbors snow to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 NAM shows significant low level CAD drain down to the southern Apps on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: They'll fine skeletons petrified in the mud decades from now...they'll look like they were desperately swimming trying to get out of quicksand-type mud before they were swallowed up. Scarfs, hats and gloves everywhere around them. After the last meltdown the trails were flooded out in spots in Pittsburg. Of course some knuckleheads went for a swim. Saw several pics posted like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: After the last meltdown the trails were flooded out in spots in Pittsburg. Of course some knuckleheads went for a swim. Saw several pics posted like this... Quite sure the guys wife that was on the back of that 2 up sled was real happy, Idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 yeah but it's a DRY slush... ... the NAM is either colder or less aggressive with the low ..hard to say which Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not in yours or my lifetime no. That was it We will imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 44 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What year is that pic from Kevin? I think that pic is from 2015. Things may get "stormy" in this thread if things don't pick up the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Good Long Term discussion by Chris .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Other than the overall theme of milder than normal in the extended...focus is mainly on next precip event. Trof is forecast to move onshore across the Wrn CONUS by tomorrow and track across the country with broad Sly flow ahead of it. At the same time high pressure is forecast to build across Quebec just ahead of the approaching storm. This general evolution is supported by ensemble guidance...with differences in positioning but consistent timing. The high pressure building in N of the approaching low...and positioning off to the NE...is favorable for colder surface temps than currently forecast by NWP. I continued the trend of undercutting guidance for the Tue high temp...with non-diurnal trend of slow warming Mon night. This brings a mixed bag of precip into play...especially Tue. Snow...become sleet...freezing rain...and even rain is all on the table. That being said...regional raobs have not yet had a chance to sample this wave over the Pacific...and that may change model guidance Sat...especially Sat evening. The GEFS and ECMWF EPS remain at odds regarding the location of that high pressure...which will be critical to ptype forecasts. Clustering of ensemble members hints that a S/WV trof that amplifies sooner over the Wrn CONUS tends to favor the colder solutions by the time it reaches the Northeast...possibly due to WAA processes having maxed out well to our W rather than nearby. So for I see no reason to deviate significantly from the previous forecast...which seemed reasonable. Beyond that event...high pressure builds back in with return flow gradually moderating temps upward thru the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: I think that pic is from 2015. Things may get "stormy" in this thread if things don't pick up the first week of February. No it was before that. The house was painted before 2015. Those banks were during the 6 week epic snow blitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Those snow banks will happen again. Even if you have steal your neighbors snow to see it. He was accused of padding his bra at the time but in February 2015 those images were common especially along the south shore around Braintree where snow banks were up to houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: Quite sure the guys wife that was on the back of that 2 up sled was real happy, Idiots. saw some of this in caribou last week. pretty crazy how deep the water can get in some fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Just now, Lava Rock said: saw some of this in caribou last week. pretty crazy how deep the water can get in some fields. No wheres to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No it was before that. The house was painted before 2015. Those banks were during the 6 week epic snow blitz I stand corrected. I thought you had more 4 years later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We will imo. I definitely think it happens more frequently than we think but usually in different areas of New England or the Northeast. Like that photo of DIT's was from 2011, which I really think was CT's ground zero. Eastern Mass was 2015. Albany area had late 2002 and early January 2003 with 50" in 10 days. Vermont had 2000-2001 as the holy grail, though we also saw depths of over 40" in March 2011. Mid-Atlantic took 2010. CAD spots of ME/NH really took home 2007-08. Those sort of multi-storm jackpot cycles with no thaw do happen more frequently than I think a lot of us think... you just need to have it line up with where ever you live, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: He was accused of padding his bra at the time but in February 2015 those images were common especially along the south shore around Braintree where snow banks were up to houses. Yes, yes they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I definitely think it happens more frequently than we think but usually in different areas of New England or the Northeast. Like that photo of DIT's was from 2011, which I really think was CT's ground zero. Eastern Mass was 2015. Albany area had late 2002 and early January 2003 with 50" in 10 days. Vermont had 2000-2001 as the holy grail, though we also saw depths of over 40" in March 2011. Mid-Atlantic took 2010. CAD spots of ME/NH really took home 2007-08. Those sort of multi-storm jackpot cycles with no thaw do happen more frequently than I think a lot of us think... you just need to have it line up with where ever you live, haha. Over-40 snowpacks here, with peaks: Mar-Apr 2001: 48" Feb-Mar 2008: 48" Feb. 2009: 49" (briefly. Down to 43" a day later) Mar. 2014: 43" Feb. 2017: 47" Tops this year: 24", current: 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Driving through Canton in Feb 2015 was surreal. I'll try to upload a pic later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 That’s a really odd look on the 18z GFS. It’s as if it should have popped a secondary around hr 84 near the Mid Atlantic but never did. Triple point FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, tamarack said: Over-40 snowpacks here, with peaks: Mar-Apr 2001: 48" Feb-Mar 2008: 48" Feb. 2009: 49" (briefly. Down to 43" a day later) Mar. 2014: 43" Feb. 2017: 47" Tops this year: 24", current: 10" How many times have you hit 50"+? I wasn't necessarily talking peak depths but just more a place that's "in the zone" for multiple storm cycles so you end up averaging like 3-5" per day over like a multiweek period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No it was before that. The house was painted before 2015. Those banks were during the 6 week epic snow blitz 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 By the looks of the 18z GFS, I think there is a reasonable chance Tuesday's event could end up much further south given the 200 mb jet exit region being collocated with the best thermal gradient near the Northern MA (Virginia/West Virginia) around hr 84. A subtle surface reflection was also apparent in that region on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 31 minutes ago, jbenedet said: By the looks of the 18z GFS, I think there is a reasonable chance Tuesday's event could end up much further south given the 200 mb jet exit region being collocated with the best thermal gradient near the Northern MA (Virginia/West Virginia) around hr 84. A subtle surface reflection was also apparent in that region on the 18z NAM. Don’t do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 hours ago, wx2fish said: After the last meltdown the trails were flooded out in spots in Pittsburg. Of course some knuckleheads went for a swim. Saw several pics posted like this... at least the passengers hands were warm in the gauntlets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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