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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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At least it looks like the PAC is trying to shake up....may need to be patient and get into the Feb 5-10 timeframe, but it def looks like a reload is coming at some point. We first reload the North American PV cold with the big WPO block that starts to develop next weekend and beyond and the PV just N of Hudson bay strengthens big time. Then we slowly try and build heights into the GOA and hopefully PNA region a little later on.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

They'll fine skeletons petrified in the mud decades from now...they'll look like they were desperately swimming trying to get out of quicksand-type mud before they were swallowed up. Scarfs, hats and gloves everywhere around them.

After the last meltdown the trails were flooded out in spots in Pittsburg. Of course some knuckleheads went for a swim. Saw several pics posted like this...

FB_IMG_1516394772783.thumb.jpg.98865f007ff520e7c2f33ee3675274b6.jpg

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3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

After the last meltdown the trails were flooded out in spots in Pittsburg. Of course some knuckleheads went for a swim. Saw several pics posted like this...

FB_IMG_1516394772783.thumb.jpg.98865f007ff520e7c2f33ee3675274b6.jpg

Quite sure the guys wife that was on the back of that 2 up sled was real happy, Idiots.

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Good Long Term discussion by Chris

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Other than the overall theme of milder than normal in the
extended...focus is mainly on next precip event.

Trof is forecast to move onshore across the Wrn CONUS by
tomorrow and track across the country with broad Sly flow ahead
of it. At the same time high pressure is forecast to build
across Quebec just ahead of the approaching storm. This general
evolution is supported by ensemble guidance...with differences
in positioning but consistent timing. The high pressure building
in N of the approaching low...and positioning off to the NE...is
favorable for colder surface temps than currently forecast by
NWP. I continued the trend of undercutting guidance for the Tue
high temp...with non-diurnal trend of slow warming Mon night.
This brings a mixed bag of precip into play...especially Tue.
Snow...become sleet...freezing rain...and even rain is all on
the table. That being said...regional raobs have not yet had a
chance to sample this wave over the Pacific...and that may
change model guidance Sat...especially Sat evening. The GEFS and
ECMWF EPS remain at odds regarding the location of that high
pressure...which will be critical to ptype forecasts. Clustering
of ensemble members hints that a S/WV trof that amplifies sooner
over the Wrn CONUS tends to favor the colder solutions by the
time it reaches the Northeast...possibly due to WAA processes
having maxed out well to our W rather than nearby. So for I see
no reason to deviate significantly from the previous
forecast...which seemed reasonable.

Beyond that event...high pressure builds back in with return
flow gradually moderating temps upward thru the end of the week.
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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We will imo.

I definitely think it happens more frequently than we think but usually in different areas of New England or the Northeast.

Like that photo of DIT's was from 2011, which I really think was CT's ground zero.  Eastern Mass was 2015.  Albany area had late 2002 and early January 2003 with 50" in 10 days.  Vermont had 2000-2001 as the holy grail, though we also saw depths of over 40" in March 2011.  Mid-Atlantic took 2010.  CAD spots of ME/NH really took home 2007-08.

Those sort of multi-storm jackpot cycles with no thaw do happen more frequently than I think a lot of us think... you just need to have it line up with where ever you live, haha.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I definitely think it happens more frequently than we think but usually in different areas of New England or the Northeast.

Like that photo of DIT's was from 2011, which I really think was CT's ground zero.  Eastern Mass was 2015.  Albany area had late 2002 and early January 2003 with 50" in 10 days.  Vermont had 2000-2001 as the holy grail, though we also saw depths of over 40" in March 2011.  Mid-Atlantic took 2010.  CAD spots of ME/NH really took home 2007-08.

Those sort of multi-storm jackpot cycles with no thaw do happen more frequently than I think a lot of us think... you just need to have it line up with where ever you live, haha.

Over-40 snowpacks here, with peaks:

Mar-Apr 2001:   48"
Feb-Mar 2008:   48"
Feb. 2009:        49"  (briefly.  Down to 43" a day later)
Mar. 2014:        43"
Feb. 2017:        47"

Tops this year:  24", current: 10"

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8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Over-40 snowpacks here, with peaks:

Mar-Apr 2001:   48"
Feb-Mar 2008:   48"
Feb. 2009:        49"  (briefly.  Down to 43" a day later)
Mar. 2014:        43"
Feb. 2017:        47"

Tops this year:  24", current: 10"

How many times have you hit 50"+?

I wasn't necessarily talking peak depths but just more a place that's "in the zone" for multiple storm cycles so you end up averaging like 3-5" per day over like a multiweek period. 

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By the looks of the 18z GFS, I think there is a reasonable chance Tuesday's event could end up much further south given the 200 mb jet exit region being collocated with the best thermal gradient near the Northern MA (Virginia/West Virginia) around hr 84.

A subtle surface reflection was also apparent in that region on the 18z NAM.

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31 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

By the looks of the 18z GFS, I think there is a reasonable chance Tuesday's event could end up much further south given the 200 mb jet exit region being collocated with the best thermal gradient near the Northern MA (Virginia/West Virginia) around hr 84.

A subtle surface reflection was also apparent in that region on the 18z NAM.

Don’t do it.

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2 hours ago, wx2fish said:

After the last meltdown the trails were flooded out in spots in Pittsburg. Of course some knuckleheads went for a swim. Saw several pics posted like this...

FB_IMG_1516394772783.thumb.jpg.98865f007ff520e7c2f33ee3675274b6.jpg

at least the passengers hands were warm in the gauntlets

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