OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 The GEFS and the EPS are pretty different ensemble means (obviously still the 00z EPS). But even overnight the clusters were pretty much EPS favoring higher pressure over southern Quebec, and the GEFS favoring lower pressure there. That actually traced back to a stronger western CONUS wave, that closed off sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 12z GEFS was def colder than op. Another small trend toward euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Euro gonna be warmer than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Definitely warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Its warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Might as well torch unless 40F rain is for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Wtf is wrong with tropical tidbits.having issues all day...am I looking the wrong run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Wtf is wrong with tropical tidbits.having issues all day...am I looking the wrong run??? its coming out very early now on Tidbits, its great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its warmer. Thank god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Ton of precip into ice jam rivers with melting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Rains to Maine’s. Stay safe all . Prolific flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch! Last week 46 wasn't a torch for you this week 46 and rain is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 A stronger s/w ejecting out of the SW is not helping this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rains to Maine’s. Stay safe all . Prolific flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Last week 46 wasn't a torch for you this week 46 and rain is? You know that he loves that its going to rain up here, He keeps bringing it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Shut em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ton of precip into ice jam rivers with melting snow Rivers around here, small and large, are filled with ice. No QPF fetish for this one thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Judging by our recent modeling performance this probably goes back colder inside 84, meh here no matter what unless your into river jam flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 The primary is more in tact with less commitment to secondary ... I don't see that the changes otherwise will reflect very much sensibly at the surface though. It was always in question whether freezing/frozen or cold rain would result anyway, but the tone of these 'reactions' to as each successive model type as they've been arriving really speaks more to not caring about the operational meteorology ... putting most of one's energy into grousing about not getting the weather one wants. okay, but ... the high is still situated precariously in this run, and probably going to be headaches for deterministic forecasting there. It's a win for the appeal on the weekend though! This run wants to hang the BD up more N of SNE proper... Man, what a couple of down-slope dandy's there should that prevail. We get Sunday too. Lovin' it... Long walks outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I'm not writing it off, From the pike north, The key is the s/w down south and how that HP is handled in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shut em down. Next weekend is when that might actually be appropriate...jeez. Like every model and ensemble is all out torch cutter for Jan 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Next weekend is when that might actually be appropriate...jeez. Like every model and ensemble is all out torch cutter for Jan 28. I know. It’s painful to see the next two weeks on guidance. Hopefully winter comes back with a vengeance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 What a furnace on the euro with that storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 There's not much to say, most people are above average for snow and cold so far so this will just be regression to the mean I guess. Still sucks the big snowballs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Yeah that one next weekend has 55/60 and dews clear up thru NNE. Hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Can only hope we get some big winds and tree damage from that screamer. Other than that, we probably need that to reset the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 We've been ... 'getting lucky' for lack of better words... Eventually one might have wondered, would we eventually have to reel/concede to obscene early warmth ... At least per the GEF's derived teleconnectors. Particularly the CDC numbers; the CPC has been much less impressive with it's recent SD significance with the descending PNA... showing way more modest reduction only into the -.75 (est). Contrasting, the CDC has been plumbed clear to almost -3 SD or more. One thing that is notable is the difference in the mass-fields those two American agencies use. The CDC uses low-level wind anomalies in their Empirical Orth. Functions, where as the CPC uses the mid-level geopotential heights for theirs. Not sure what's better or worse frankly, ..much less ..per which season. I'm almost inclined to suspect the CPC is more appropriate for winter, due to the hemispheric gradient associated with that season tending to 'focus' wave coherency at all scales... But, fact of the matter is ...conservation of mass immediately dictates that the heights will effect the wind... Anyway, because the CPC has been maintaining a less impressive prognostic for this 10 days ... I've been a little less gung-ho for a warm up as the CDC numbers would outright suggest. Boy...hell hath no fury if the CDC were gospel. I think La Nina early springs are not unheard of... I've mentioned this several times but it doesn't seem to spark much attention or replies... perhaps it doesn't deserve any, I dunno. But I haven't followed through on that study my self - just seem to have a memory of hearing and/or reading that somewhere. Meanwhile, it should put all you winter weather enthusiasts at ease to know that NASA (fitting for timing...) has just announced that 2017 is the second warmest in history (however 'history' is being defined for that context), and... included in that publication is the statement that when they removed (statistically) the El Nino effect, that makes 2017 the warmest. Slowly but surely ... if by inches when not by miles, we travel toward a destiny where this kind of crap gets ever more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know. It’s painful to see the next two weeks on guidance. Hopefully winter comes back with a vengeance. Good ol' fashioned January thaw...get out the massive boombox blasting Whitesnake, fix your mullet, and party like it's 1986. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I see Maue has added sleet and freezing rain 6hr increments , nice ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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